Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney (user search)
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  Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict your state's county map for Obama v. Romney  (Read 3225 times)
Donerail
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« on: October 16, 2012, 05:25:16 AM »



Only thing that could change is shading; I don't see much change elsewhere, unless Romney falls apart in Pasco/Hernando (especially Hernando; he isn't exactly the best candidate for Hernando...)
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Donerail
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2012, 02:29:31 PM »



Only thing that could change is shading; I don't see much change elsewhere, unless Romney falls apart in Pasco/Hernando (especially Hernando; he isn't exactly the best candidate for Hernando...)

I think Obama's going to lose Hillsborough and Flagler.

I thought Flagler had been trending D recently; maybe not enough, but there's still a decent shot for Obama. As for Hillsborough, I really don't see Romney winning there; the demographic shifts mean that it's pretty far out of reach for Romney.
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Donerail
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Posts: 15,329
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2012, 03:00:17 PM »

Only thing that could change is shading; I don't see much change elsewhere, unless Romney falls apart in Pasco/Hernando (especially Hernando; he isn't exactly the best candidate for Hernando...)

I think Obama's going to lose Hillsborough and Flagler.

I thought Flagler had been trending D recently; maybe not enough, but there's still a decent shot for Obama. As for Hillsborough, I really don't see Romney winning there; the demographic shifts mean that it's pretty far out of reach for Romney.

I think if you look at the 2010 governor's race, that's a pretty good map of where the trends are headed.
I'll say Obama loses Volusia and Flagler, and Hillsborough being the bellweather, it might flip as well.

For Orange county (Orlando), where I live, I see overwhelming support for Romney in Winter Park, East Orlando, Metrowest, College Park, while Obama gets support in Pine Hills, and South Orlando.

Orange County I predict 54/46 Obama.

I'd tend to agree with 2010 being a guide, but with more enthusiastic D turnout due to it being a Presidential year I don't think Volusia/Monroe fall just yet. Flagler remains a tossup.
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