Predict the effect of the Tuesday, Oct 16th Debate!

[The Vorlon]

OK...

Predict the future!

The RCP average of national polls is basically tied right now, so who gets a bump from debate #2?

Ready, set, pontificate!

[Likely Voter]

O +0.7%

[Lief 🗽]

Obama will return to the 2% (+/-3%) lead he has held the entire election.

[Cliffy]

I don't think the debate will do much unless Obama caves again.  It'll take something dramatic.

Now the polls, the lib polls will keep trying to give cover for Obama but they'll continue to narrow their Dem samples as we get closer to election.....

[morgieb]

The presidency has made Obama into a poor debater and Romney doesn't connect well with ordinary folk. It's hard to see either of them doing well in a town hall situation, I'll say Obama stops the bleeding and starts getting back to his original position.

[California8429]

Obama up <1%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

After last time, I'm not going to predict... lol

[Eraserhead]

Obama 0-1% I guess.

I really have no idea. While I hope and expect Obama to be a lot more aggressive in this debate, because of the town hall format he can't really go "full-Biden" so to speak. He'll have to find a happy medium or risk looking like a jerk.

Of course, Romney probably can't afford to be as aggressive as he was in the first debate either.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

My gut says no change. I don't see Obama being nearly as worthless as last time, but I don't see him winning like, say, Joe Biden did last week. He just isn't a great debater. Romney will hold his own the race won't change too drastically.

[J. J.]

If Obama attacks too hard, it is a plus for Romney.  Every time he mention Romney in the last one, his numbers dropped. 

[old timey villain]

If Obama attacks too hard, it is a plus for Romney.  Every time he mention Romney in the last one, his numbers dropped.  

Yeah, because Romney was still perceived as the underdog then. Now Romney is running neck and neck, people know it's close, so they'll give Obama permission to be more aggressive.

People didn't want Obama to be soft on Romney because they like Romney better, they did so because he and his campaign were viewed as pathetic.

[Sol]

I think Obama'll do better, and so there will be a slight bounce, putting Obama somewhere between September and Now.

[Cryptic]

Slight Obama bounce.

[J. J.]

If Obama attacks too hard, it is a plus for Romney.  Every time he mention Romney in the last one, his numbers dropped.  

Yeah, because Romney was still perceived as the underdog then. Now Romney is running neck and neck, people know it's close, so they'll give Obama permission to be more aggressive.

People didn't want Obama to be soft on Romney because they like Romney better, they did so because he and his campaign were viewed as pathetic.

No, the voters out there that are undecided do not want attacks. 

[JFK-Democrat]

Obama + 1.0% on RCP average by Sunday.

[5280]

Obama will do better than his first debate, Romney will hold his ground and do just as well.  Overall, no change.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Not much. Maybe a small bounce either way, but not much.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The onus is really on Obama.  After his poor performance and Joe Biden breaking even against Paul Ryan, he can't afford to lose this one.  If he does, we're looking at a 1-2% Romney bounce and close to putting his foot on Obama's neck.  However, if Obama can come out and win tonight, it will be a 1-2% Obama bounce and put many of the swing states narrowly back in his column.  The effect here won't be as minimal as some here think.  They are not going to call game over and declare a president-elect, but they will make a difference going into Debate 3 on Monday.