Obama has led by 2% for the entire election

[Lief 🗽]

And he'll probably win by 2% on election day as well. It's not a coincidence that his approval rating is averaging out to around 50% approve, 48% disapprove at the moment. Sure there's been some wiggle around this two point lead (no more than 2-3% either way), with Republicans becoming more enthusiastic/Democrats less enthusiastic (after the Ryan pick, after the Romney debate victory), and vice versa (during the "Summer of Bain", after the DNC, after the 47% remarks), but at the end of the day, bounces recede and the race returns to an Obama +2% status quo. It was beginning to do this in the week before the debate, when Obama's numbers suddenly started declining for seemingly no reason. And then the debate happened, so Romney got a bump of 2-3%, putting him somewhere between a tie and a narrow lead. And now that bump is disappearing again and we're returning to the Obama 2% lead status quo.

Obama leads with women, minorities and young voters. Romney leads with men, whites, and old voters. The two candidate's leads with these groups have stayed pretty constant. There's likely not going to be some huge event that undoes the past year of demographic polarization twenty days before the election. Obama will win by about two percent.

Nate Silver tweeted a link to a blog post that says something similar earlier today (link), though the point is much more simple than that guy makes it out to be.

[technical support]

And he'll probably win by 2% on election day as well. It's not a coincidence that his approval rating is averaging out to around 50% approve, 48% disapprove at the moment. Sure there's been some wiggle around this two point lead (no more than 2-3% either way), with Republicans becoming more enthusiastic/Democrats less enthusiastic (after the Ryan pick, after the Romney debate victory), and vice versa (during the "Summer of Bain", after the DNC, after the 47% remarks), but at the end of the day, bounces recede and the race returns to an Obama +2% status quo. It was beginning to do this in the week before the debate, when Obama's numbers suddenly started declining for seemingly no reason. And then the debate happened, so Romney got a bump of 2-3%, putting him somewhere between a tie and a narrow lead. And now that bump is disappearing again and we're returning to the Obama 2% lead status quo.

Obama leads with women, minorities and young voters. Romney leads with men, whites, and old voters. The two candidate's leads with these groups have stayed pretty constant. There's likely not going to be some huge event that undoes the past year of demographic polarization twenty days before the election. Obama will win by about two percent.

proud to here this. now i will send in some more cash

[wan]

And he'll probably win by 2% on election day as well. It's not a coincidence that his approval rating is averaging out to around 50% approve, 48% disapprove at the moment. Sure there's been some wiggle around this two point lead (no more than 2-3% either way), with Republicans becoming more enthusiastic/Democrats less enthusiastic (after the Ryan pick, after the Romney debate victory), and vice versa (during the "Summer of Bain", after the DNC, after the 47% remarks), but at the end of the day, bounces recede and the race returns to an Obama +2% status quo. It was beginning to do this in the week before the debate, when Obama's numbers suddenly started declining for seemingly no reason. And then the debate happened, so Romney got a bump of 2-3%, putting him somewhere between a tie and a narrow lead. And now that bump is disappearing again and we're returning to the Obama 2% lead status quo.

Obama leads with women, minorities and young voters. Romney leads with men, whites, and old voters. The two candidate's leads with these groups have stayed pretty constant. There's likely not going to be some huge event that undoes the past year of demographic polarization twenty days before the election. Obama will win by about two percent.

Nate Silver tweeted a link to a blog post that says something similar earlier today (link), though the point is much more simple than that guy makes it out to be.

Romney is a weak candidate and some republicans i know are shock he got this far. Most are telling people they will vote for Romney but they really voting for a 3rd party candidate.

[milhouse24]

Romney's getting a bump now because Independents didn't take him seriously before.

Now that he has shown he can act like a sane person and be as competent as Obama, he is winning over these voters. 

If Obama is so great at everything, then why is this election even so close?  He had such a popular mandate in 2008, and he's blaming his falling popularity on the Republican Congress. 

Even if you are an Obama supporter, you have to admit that the past 4 years have been a mediocre and uninspiring failure. 

[5280]

If Obama was so great, why is he not winning a landslide?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

And he'll probably win by 2% on election day as well. It's not a coincidence that his approval rating is averaging out to around 50% approve, 48% disapprove at the moment. Sure there's been some wiggle around this two point lead (no more than 2-3% either way), with Republicans becoming more enthusiastic/Democrats less enthusiastic (after the Ryan pick, after the Romney debate victory), and vice versa (during the "Summer of Bain", after the DNC, after the 47% remarks), but at the end of the day, bounces recede and the race returns to an Obama +2% status quo. It was beginning to do this in the week before the debate, when Obama's numbers suddenly started declining for seemingly no reason. And then the debate happened, so Romney got a bump of 2-3%, putting him somewhere between a tie and a narrow lead. And now that bump is disappearing again and we're returning to the Obama 2% lead status quo.

Obama leads with women, minorities and young voters. Romney leads with men, whites, and old voters. The two candidate's leads with these groups have stayed pretty constant. There's likely not going to be some huge event that undoes the past year of demographic polarization twenty days before the election. Obama will win by about two percent.

Nate Silver tweeted a link to a blog post that says something similar earlier today (link), though the point is much more simple than that guy makes it out to be.

Romney is a weak candidate and some republicans i know are shock he got this far. Most are telling people they will vote for Romney but they really voting for a 3rd party candidate.

True, but I'm sure Obama is capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Lief 🗽]

When did I say Obama was so great? Two percent is a pretty pathetic margin for an incumbent re-election historically.

[J. J.]

You all haven't been looking at Gallup or Rasmussen, have you?

[LiberalJunkie]

If Obama was so great, why is he not winning a landslide?

Because it's America...he would be winning in a landslide anywhere else

[Lief 🗽]

You all haven't been looking at Gallup or Rasmussen, have you?

The average of all national polls is a better predictor than just two of them.

[Adam Griffin]

Romney is +0.1 on RepublicanClearPolitics as of the moment. Looks like his bump will be gone by Wednesday.

[President von Cat]

Romney is +0.1 on RepublicanClearPolitics as of the moment. Looks like his bump will be gone by Wednesday.

I see him at +1.0 right now. Am I look in the wrong spot?

Honestly, I hate that site, and I wish someone else would launch some other poll average site already so that people would stop using RCP. If you only used RealClearPolitics as your sole source of information, you would never have known how bad June-September was for Romney. They hardly ever covered 47%, or the flop of a convention. Basically every article written by an RCP staff journalist is Pro-Romney. They were my only source in 2008 and made it seem that the election was going to be much closer than it really was.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Romney is +0.1 on RepublicanClearPolitics as of the moment. Looks like his bump will be gone by Wednesday.

I see him at +1.0 right now. Am I look in the wrong spot?

Honestly, I hate that site, and I wish someone else would launch some other poll average site already so that people would stop using RCP. If you only used RealClearPolitics as your sole source of information, you would never have known how bad June-September was for Romney. They hardly ever covered 47%, or the flop of a convention. Basically every article written by an RCP staff journalist is Pro-Romney. They were my only source in 2008 and made it seem that the election was going to be much closer than it really was.

Yeah, he's at +0.1 now, but I expect once the 48-47 Romney result from ARG and whatever the PPP number is, is factored in, assuming no change on Ras or Gallup...Romney will move ahead again.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-...er-138516.html - something worth reading.

[Adam Griffin]

Romney is +0.1 on RepublicanClearPolitics as of the moment. Looks like his bump will be gone by Wednesday.

I see him at +1.0 right now. Am I look in the wrong spot?

Honestly, I hate that site, and I wish someone else would launch some other poll average site already so that people would stop using RCP. If you only used RealClearPolitics as your sole source of information, you would never have known how bad June-September was for Romney. They hardly ever covered 47%, or the flop of a convention. Basically every article written by an RCP staff journalist is Pro-Romney. They were my only source in 2008 and made it seem that the election was going to be much closer than it really was.

It's a terrible site, and very favorable to Romney in terms of the polls they end up using. So, if he's essentially tied in their aggregate, then a non-biased sample would certainly look better for the Democrats.

This is the page that should be showing Romney +0.1

[President von Cat]

Romney is +0.1 on RepublicanClearPolitics as of the moment. Looks like his bump will be gone by Wednesday.

I see him at +1.0 right now. Am I look in the wrong spot?

Honestly, I hate that site, and I wish someone else would launch some other poll average site already so that people would stop using RCP. If you only used RealClearPolitics as your sole source of information, you would never have known how bad June-September was for Romney. They hardly ever covered 47%, or the flop of a convention. Basically every article written by an RCP staff journalist is Pro-Romney. They were my only source in 2008 and made it seem that the election was going to be much closer than it really was.

Yeah, he's at +0.1 now, but I expect once the 48-47 Romney result from ARG and whatever the PPP number is, is factored in, assuming no change on Ras or Gallup...Romney will move ahead again.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-...er-138516.html - something worth reading.

That link doesn't work.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney is +0.1 on RepublicanClearPolitics as of the moment. Looks like his bump will be gone by Wednesday.

I see him at +1.0 right now. Am I look in the wrong spot?

Honestly, I hate that site, and I wish someone else would launch some other poll average site already so that people would stop using RCP. If you only used RealClearPolitics as your sole source of information, you would never have known how bad June-September was for Romney. They hardly ever covered 47%, or the flop of a convention. Basically every article written by an RCP staff journalist is Pro-Romney. They were my only source in 2008 and made it seem that the election was going to be much closer than it really was.

Yeah, he's at +0.1 now, but I expect once the 48-47 Romney result from ARG and whatever the PPP number is, is factored in, assuming no change on Ras or Gallup...Romney will move ahead again.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-...er-138516.html - something worth reading.

RCP doesn't include ARG or PPP national polls in their average for some reason.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yet they do for state polls? Gooooood they suck lol

Consistency is aspirational apparently ...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, well if he has some more moderate hero performances in the debates, he might as well change his name to Tom Dewey.

[Franzl]

If Obama was so great, why is he not winning a landslide?

Since when do the voters have a brain?

[Silent Hunter]

When did I say Obama was so great? Two percent is a pretty pathetic margin for an incumbent re-election historically.

Precisely. However, it's all he needs.

[cavalcade]

Romney is +0.1 on RepublicanClearPolitics as of the moment. Looks like his bump will be gone by Wednesday.

I see him at +1.0 right now. Am I look in the wrong spot?

Honestly, I hate that site, and I wish someone else would launch some other poll average site already so that people would stop using RCP. If you only used RealClearPolitics as your sole source of information, you would never have known how bad June-September was for Romney. They hardly ever covered 47%, or the flop of a convention. Basically every article written by an RCP staff journalist is Pro-Romney. They were my only source in 2008 and made it seem that the election was going to be much closer than it really was.

Did you try looking at their main site?  Today they have links to Nancy Pelosi giving the D point of view on Medicare, a Salon article calling Romney a hypocrite, a Salon article criticizing the R response to Benghazi, and a WaPo article which encourages Obama to more aggressively advocate for liberal policies as political winners.  It seems like they almost always link to Krugman's NYT pieces, though he's off today.

They are hacks in their opinion and which polls they highlight but I don't think there is anyone better than RealClear at providing both sides without going the Alan Colmes route. 

The RCP averages also got 48/50 states right in 2008.

[J. J.]

You all haven't been looking at Gallup or Rasmussen, have you?

The average of all national polls is a better predictor than just two of them.

PPP just gave Romney +4.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, but I have issues when 24% of the numbers came from Sunday where Romney had a 12 point lead? Now does anyone think thats even close to being reasonable?

[pbrower2a]

If Obama was so great, why is he not winning a landslide?

Because it's America...he would be winning in a landslide anywhere else

Where else would so many people believe that the Universe was created in six days "and on the Seventh God rested" roughly 6000 years ago? Where else would so many people deny evolution? Where else are there proportionately more believers in the Loch Ness Monster, UFOs, alien abductions, or that the Founding Fathers of America were predominantly Protestant fundamentalists even though their biographies contradict such and that Protestant Fundamentalism wasn't even defined until the 1920s? Or even that 9/11 was an inside job instead of more rational explanations?

What other country has Rush Limbaugh and FoX "News" Channel?

[Torie]

The obsession around here with polls, as the pollsters desperately try to guess just how much the respective cohorts will turn out, as they re-weight them from the sample who actually responded (a non-random sample), is amusing. Sure they give the trends, but the absolute result within a point or two to a high degree of certainty in this election?  LOL.