Predict your home county

[Bacon King]

All three counties I've now lived in.

Barrow County, GA

Romney: 76% 
Obama: 23%
Johnson: 2%

Orleans Parish, LA

Obama: 81%
Romney: 18%
various others: 1%

Cobb County, GA
Romney: 53%
Obama: 46%
Johnson: 1%

[Alcon]

Some of you guys live in solid democrat counties.  At least in a competitive districts, they mean something.

Believe it or not, a vote cast in a solidly Democratic county has the same weight as one cast in a swing county. Who knew!

I mean, if you're a Republican voting in a solid Democrat county, what's the point of voting? Might as well live somewhere else.

We're talking about a federal-level office.  If you're a Republican in Boulder, your vote is just as efficacious as a vote in Colorado Springs.  Also, politics 100% aside, I'm not sure I can name a single area McCain won that I'd be especially interested in living in...

[Seattle]

King County (well, at least I pretend I'm from here), 68-30, Obama.

[Skill and Chance]

Some of you guys live in solid democrat counties.  At least in a competitive districts, they mean something.

Believe it or not, a vote cast in a solidly Democratic county has the same weight as one cast in a swing county. Who knew!

I mean, if you're a Republican voting in a solid Democrat county, what's the point of voting? Might as well live somewhere else.

We're talking about a federal-level office.  If you're a Republican in Boulder, your vote is just as efficacious as a vote in Colorado Springs.  Also, politics 100% aside, I'm not sure I can name a single area McCain won that I'd be especially interested in living in...

There are some really ritzy libertarian suburbs in there.  Also a lot of the rural west if you're a nature lover.

[Donerail]

Pinellas County, Florida

Obama: 54%
Romney: 43%
Johnson: 2%
Other: 1%

[Alcon]

Some of you guys live in solid democrat counties.  At least in a competitive districts, they mean something.

Believe it or not, a vote cast in a solidly Democratic county has the same weight as one cast in a swing county. Who knew!

I mean, if you're a Republican voting in a solid Democrat county, what's the point of voting? Might as well live somewhere else.

We're talking about a federal-level office.  If you're a Republican in Boulder, your vote is just as efficacious as a vote in Colorado Springs.  Also, politics 100% aside, I'm not sure I can name a single area McCain won that I'd be especially interested in living in...

There are some really ritzy libertarian suburbs in there.  Also a lot of the rural west if you're a nature lover.

I like nature and don't mind quietude, but I like to live in a stimulating, vibrant area with stuff to do and food and street activity, and not many of those vote Republican.  It's not that all Republican areas are worthless; I just don't think I'd choose to live in any of them.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Lancaster, PA:

Romney 58%
Obama 41%

[Sol]

Watauga County, NC

Obama: 50%
Romney: 48%
Independent/Other: 2%

Probably too close to call.

[Gass3268]

Dane County, WI
Obama - 70%
Romney - 29%
Scattering - 1%

Washington D.C.
Obama - 92%
Romney - 4%
Johnson - 4%
Scattering - 1%

[J. J.]

Philadelphia, PA:

21/79 Obama

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Shelby County, TN
65/35 Obama.

I concur.

Davidson County, TN
59/41 Obama

[old timey villain]

Some of you guys live in solid democrat counties.  At least in a competitive districts, they mean something.

Believe it or not, a vote cast in a solidly Democratic county has the same weight as one cast in a swing county. Who knew!

I mean, if you're a Republican voting in a solid Democrat county, what's the point of voting? Might as well live somewhere else.

No, it doesn't work that way. I mean, if you want to live among politically like minded individuals, then by all means- move. But the state of Ohio (for example) still counts a Republican vote even if its cast from the blackest precinct in Cleveland.

[old timey villain]

Clarke County, GA

64% Obama
34% Romney

Gwinnett County, GA

50% Romney
48% Obama

[angus]

Lancaster, PA:

Romney 58%
Obama 41%

Ah, we live in the same county!

My prediction would be something like Romney 52, Obama 47.  

The trend is 2000, Bush gets 67%; 2004, Bush gets 65%; 2008, McCain gets 55%.  Fitting that to a linear least squares regression with the year as the independent variable and the Republican percent as the dependent variable predicts 50.4% for Romney.  Alternatively, fitting to a four-parameter sigmoid which may better model net migration, we have Romney at 54.7.

I then randomly picked a number in-between, leaving 1% for Johnson.   (no doubt you've seen the activity, especially around Fruitville at US30; we may be underestimating Johnson's take.)

[All Along The Watchtower]

Santa Clara County, CA:

Obama 65%
Romney: 34%

[Bacon King]

Clarke County, GA

64% Obama
34% Romney

Gwinnett County, GA

50% Romney
48% Obama

Haha, you've lived in the two counties that I use to tell people where I'm originally, since nobody, even in like Lawrenceville, knows where it is.

Typical conversation:

"I'm from Barrow County"
"Where the hell is that?"
"It's the place you drive through on 316 between Gwinnett and Athens"
"Oh, yeah, I've been through there!"

I agree with you on Gwinnett; it'd be awesome if it actually voted for Obama but it's not quite there yet. If the local Democratic Party had decent candidates (or any candidates, for that matter) running for DA, Sherriff, County Commission Chairman, etc, they'd have probably had a chance at winning and holding few countywide offices, since they're only up during Presidential years. Hopefully the Dems will be on the ball for 2016, at least.

With Clarke though I'm thinking the margin will probably only be like Obama + 15, since less students are a lot politically involved now than in 2008 (understandably so, too, since the UGA kids first got really involved in the Obama campaign during Georgia's heavily contested primaries, but now the old volunteers have all graduated and there's not much point for the College Dems to recruit a ton of new activists since there's no competitive races around these parts).

Lancaster, PA:

Ah, we live in the same county!

Wait, angus, I thought you lived in Iowa?

[Cryptic]

Fayette County, KY

Obama: 50.18% 
Romney: 49.82% 

Fayette was one of the few counties in the state to go to Obama in 2008 and I'm hopeful we will again, albeit likely with a decreased margin. 

[angus]

Wait, angus, I thought you lived in Iowa?

I lived in Black Hawk County, Iowa from July 2007 till July 2012, five of the nine years that I have been posting here. 

Okay then, I'll do Black Hawk, just for you:  Obama 59, Romney 39.   Something like that, probably.  Obama broke 60% there last time, but I wasn't really feeling as much love when I left. 

[AmericanNation]

Washington County, WI
Romney: 70
Obama : 29

Waukesha County, WI
Romney: 68
Obama : 31

That's probably the floor for Romney, he may well do 5 points better in each. 

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Howard County , IN

Romney 51%
Obama 43%
Johnson 5%
Goode 1%

[timothyinMD]

Fairfield County, CT

Obama - 55%
Romney - 47%

So 102%?

[SPC]

Orange County, CA

Romney 55%
Obama 44%

Los Angeles County, CA (where I'm registered)
Obama 67%
Romney 31%

[SetonHallPirate]

Palm Beach County, Florida:

60/39 for Obama.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Whatcom:

56%-42% Obama

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

A little bit of erosion among white voters in my area of South Jersey, but not much.  I don't see this area and having been hit particularly hard by the economic struggles of the past few years... and Obama will certainly not get the brunt of that blame.

Camden, NJ
Obama - 64%
Romney - 35%

Burlington, NJ
Obama - 56%
Romney - 42%

Romney will make some gains in the state, but most will be from up north where they love his type of moderate Republican.  That quad-fecta of GOP-friendly counties up in the northwest of the state might be particularly ugly.  They loved Christie in 2009, still do, and Corzine was barely breaking 25% up there.  Burlington is the state's best bellwether, though, and it should be a couple points more Democratic than the rest of the state.  56-42 in Burlington?  55-44 in the whole state.