DailyKos/PPP - National - Romney up 4
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Author Topic: DailyKos/PPP - National - Romney up 4  (Read 1576 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« on: October 16, 2012, 07:41:07 AM »
« edited: October 16, 2012, 07:43:32 AM by Former President Polnut »
Romney - 50%
Obama - 46%

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/16/1144982/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week?

I assume Cliffy is going to continue that PPP is just about pushing liberal propaganda... honestly, I think there are reasonable questions about this poll (note the very odd Sunday sample)... but have at it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2012, 07:53:22 AM »
The poll has a slight D lean.
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Marston
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2012, 08:05:45 AM »
Well, this obviously doesn't match up with Romney +1 in Florida or Obama +5 in Ohio.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2012, 08:08:28 AM »
This poll has never been overly favorable to Obama and has stayed pretty close most of the time. National polls can be very erratic and not match up with the state ones.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2012, 08:09:06 AM »
Quote from: Marston on October 16, 2012, 08:05:45 AM
Well, this obviously doesn't match up with Romney +1 in Florida or Obama +5 in Ohio.

It could, in several ways.  Romney is gaining in non-swing states.  There also could be a lot of movement, as the polls were not exactly contemporaneous.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2012, 08:09:54 AM »
Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

----

Very....interesting Sunday numbers.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2012, 08:12:51 AM »
Glorious news!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2012, 08:15:38 AM »
I think anyone looking at this poll with a Sunday sample THAT off and your reaction is anything beyond 'huh?' ... then yeah. FTR - I'd be saying exactly the same if the results were reversed...
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afleitch
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2012, 08:15:53 AM »
The main issue here was the ideological breakdown. It had conservatives at 44% and liberals at 16% which for both are the highest and lowest recorded figures respectively in any national poll since the debate.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2012, 08:24:43 AM »
Quote from: Former President Polnut on October 16, 2012, 08:15:38 AM
I think anyone looking at this poll with a Sunday sample THAT off and your reaction is anything beyond 'huh?' ... then yeah. FTR - I'd be saying exactly the same if the results were reversed...

It you took the first two days, it would be a tie, on a poll with a D "house effect."  Even if that effect is shrink, it is still there.

I'm wondering if Sunday had a bunch of call backs from the earlier in the weekend?
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2012, 08:24:49 AM »
Maybe they polled Dems in only WV and KY!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2012, 10:11:42 AM »
Well, they said this would be Obama's worst poll of the week. It is. Looks like an outlier though.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2012, 10:43:51 AM »
Whites are fleeing the Democratic party!

Whites

Romney 60
Obama 37
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2012, 10:46:32 AM »
Quote from: Marston on October 16, 2012, 08:05:45 AM
Well, this obviously doesn't match up with Romney +1 in Florida or Obama +5 in Ohio.

Suggesting, of course, that the Florida and Ohio numbers might not be quite right.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2012, 10:53:08 AM »
Quote from: Marston on October 16, 2012, 08:05:45 AM
Well, this obviously doesn't match up with Romney +1 in Florida or Obama +5 in Ohio.

Or Obama +2 in NC and AZ. Or Obama +3 in IA according to We Ask America.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2012, 10:54:11 AM »
Quote from: BigSkyBob on October 16, 2012, 10:46:32 AM
Quote from: Marston on October 16, 2012, 08:05:45 AM
Well, this obviously doesn't match up with Romney +1 in Florida or Obama +5 in Ohio.

Suggesting, of course, that the Florida and Ohio numbers might not be quite right.

Solid pollster Mason Dixon had Romney at 51-44 in Florida. Not at all unreasonable with a nation of 50-46.
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opebo
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2012, 10:57:12 AM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on October 16, 2012, 10:43:51 AM
Whites are fleeing the Democratic party!

I've been telling you guys about this all along.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2012, 11:00:09 AM »
Quote from: opebo on October 16, 2012, 10:57:12 AM
Quote from: krazen1211 on October 16, 2012, 10:43:51 AM
Whites are fleeing the Democratic party!

I've been telling you guys about this all along.

Your signature is proving to be accurate. Credit given where it is due.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2012, 11:09:43 AM »
I guess RCP won't add this because of the Dailykos involvement? It must be hurting them not to. lol.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2012, 11:29:18 AM »
If Romney actually won the PV by that margin but still lost it would be quite the embarassment for Obama, and would definately lead to a backlash against the EC.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2012, 11:30:58 AM »
This poll has already pretty much been discredited for overpolling conservatives.
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Reds4
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2012, 11:33:35 AM »
Just get ready for next week's Daily Kos/PPP weekly poll to have a big shift toward Obama and them be crowing about "momentum" no matter what actually is the case.
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2012, 11:34:55 AM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on October 16, 2012, 11:30:58 AM
This poll has already pretty much been discredited for overpolling conservatives.


PPP is a very good pollster with a Democratic lean.  It could be an outlier, but it is in line with some of these other ones.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2012, 11:37:19 AM »
Quote from: J. J. on October 16, 2012, 11:34:55 AM
PPP is a very good pollster with a Democratic lean.

They have admitted their own Republican lean despite being hired by a Democratic blog.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2012, 12:18:03 PM »
Confirmed by the latest Gallup poll.

Great news!
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