The American Pendulum

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

17 March 2004
ILLINOIS PRIMARY PROVIDES NO CLEAR WINNER

Although North Carolina Senator John Edwards won the contest with 43% to Vermont Governor Howard Dean's 40%, the delegate count remains all but tied. Everything now depends on the primary in Pennsylvania next month. If Dean wins by a small margin, the Democrats could easily end up with a brokered convention. If Edwards wins, he becomes the overwhelming favourite.

21 March 2004
KERRY DROPS OUT

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has dropped out of the campaign following dismal performances in Illinois, Alaska and Wyoming. He decided not to make an endorsement until one of the remaining candidates won the nomination.

16 April 2004
DEAN CONFIDENT

At a rally in Lancaster today, Howard Dean acted very confident – some might say overconfident – of his chances at winning the Democratic nomination. The latest polls show Gov. Dean leading the crucial Pennsylvania primary race by around ten points; if the results are similar, Dean could very well lock up the nomination.

19 April 2004
PAUL SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN

After a string of even-feebler-than expected performances, Texas Congressman Ron Paul has announced the suspension of his insurgent campaign for the Republican nomination. He refused to endorse President Bush, however, citing the indefinite continuation of the War in Iraq and the administration's stance on civil liberties. President Bush had reached an absolute majority of delegates in mid-March.

20 April 2004
DEAN CHOOSES GRAHAM FOR VICE PRESIDENT

Governor Howard Dean of Vermont today announced his pick of Florida Senator Bob Graham as his running mate.
[…]
“It's a bit insulting, frankly,” says Francis Thornton, 44, a teacher from Philadelphia. “Governor Dean sounds as if it's already over, like our vote doesn't really matter. I know I've changed my mind now.”

Polls as of 04/23/2004

Pennsylvania (D)
Dean – 44%
Edwards – 41%
Others – 8%

National
Dean – 47%
Bush – 44%
Others – 2%

Bush – 47%
Edwards – 45%
Others – 3%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Questions, comments, suggestions, pictures of cookies, opinions, death threats, and/or other sorts of feedback are appreciated.

And an answer to a question that I already know someone will ask:
The points of divergence for this timeline are:
(1) Howard Dean wins the Iowa caucus,
(2) Several southern Democratic Senators that did not run for re-election IOTL do, and
(3) Ron Paul is an actual libertarian.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Dem Primary map?

[Spamage]

Gee this looks familiar

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Gee this looks familiar

Does it?

Cathcon -- tomorrow's update will include a primary map.

[morgieb]

What's the backstory to this?

[Spanish Moss]

Unlike Kerry, I'm fairly confident Dean would have won.  Not only won, but been a relatively decent President - far better than Kerry would have been and Obama is.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

28 April 2004
EDWARDS WINS PENNSYLVANIA

Edwards, Dean, Kerry, Clark
According to the AP's projections, John Edwards has won the Pennsylvania Democratic primary with 50% compared to 42% for Howard Dean.

29 April 2004
DEAN CONCEDES, ENDORSES EDWARDS

Governor Howard Dean today dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination, clearing the way for John Edwards. In an appearance in Cleveland, he urged his supporters to forget the bitter primary campaign and take into account Edwards's strong support for the middle class.

29 April 2004
60 MINUTES EXPOSES HORRIFIC ABUSES AT ABU GHRAIB PRISON IN IRAQ

14 May 2004
FURY AMONG LIBERALS AS OKLAHOMA SENATOR APPEARS TO ENDORSE ABU GHRAIB ABUSES

Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe's comments this week have ignited a political firestorm as politicians from across the country have decried his remarks that the prisoners at Abu Ghraib, as people who “have American blood on their hands,” deserved any supposed torture they got*.
[…]
Criticism has come from high-ranking Democrats such as former presidential candidates Al Gore and John Kerry, Senators Tom Harkin and Russ Feingold, and presumptive Senate nominee Rep. Brad Carson (D-OK2), who has begun production of several advertisements tying his opponent and predecessor Tom Coburn to the statement.

15 May 2004
PRESIDENTIAL RACE KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR

With North Carolina Senator John Edwards sewing up the Democratic nomination, the public's focus has shifted to the race between him and incumbent President George Bush. Polls show both candidates tied, and they are expected to remain within small margins for the rest of the campaign.
[…]
Edwards was combative in an appearance in Ohio. “The fact is, President Bush has failed the nation. Whichever way you look at it, on the economy, in foreign policy, and on civil rights, America is worse off today than it was four years ago.”
Republicans were quick to disagree. “Senator Edwards ignores the progress that we, as a nation, have made in education, health care, and many other areas,” wrote conservative Senator Mike DeWine in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. And others were even more blistering.
“If you look at John Edwards's rhetoric and at his record and at his proposed so-called reforms, it becomes obvious: Edwards would be a Jimmy Carter mark two – and I don't think I need to tell you how that'd turn out,” radio host Rush Limbaugh said in a program on Saturday.

16 May 2004
BUSH IGNORES CALLS FOR RUMSFELD RESIGNATION

President Bush today categorically denied that neither Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld nor other officials would resign in the wake of the Abu Ghraib incidents.

Polls as of 05/31/2012

National
Bush – 46%
Edwards – 46%
Others – 4%

Arkansas
Bush – 47%
Edwards – 45%
Others – 3%

Colorado
Bush – 48%
Edwards – 40%
Others – 7%

Connecticut
Edwards – 49%
Bush – 45%
Others – 2%

Florida
Bush – 48%
Edwards – 46%
Others – 2%

Georgia
Bush – 47%
Edwards – 41%
Others – 4%

Hawai'i
Edwards – 46%
Bush – 46%
Others – 2%

Iowa
Edwards – 45%
Bush – 44%
Others – 6%

Kentucky
Bush – 48%
Edwards – 44%
Others – 3%

Louisiana
Bush – 49%
Edwards – 42%
Others – 3%

Maine (Dist. 1 / 2)
Edwards – 45% (49% / 41%)
Bush – 41% (40% / 43%)
Others – 7% (5% / 9%)

Michigan
Edwards – 49%
Bush – 44%
Others – 3%

Minnesota
Edwards – 48%
Bush – 39%
Others – 7%

Missouri
Bush – 47%
Edwards – 44%
Others – 4%

Nevada
Bush – 44%
Edwards – 43%
Others – 9%

New Hampshire
Bush – 46%
Edwards – 43%
Others – 6%

New Jersey
Edwards – 46%
Bush – 45%
Others – 4%

New Mexico
Edwards – 44%
Bush – 43%
Others – 8%

North Carolina
Edwards – 46%
Bush – 45%
Others – 3%

Ohio
Edwards – 46%
Bush – 46%
Others – 3%

Oregon
Bush – 45%
Edwards – 43%
Others – 7%

Pennsylvania
Edwards – 50%
Bush – 44%
Others – 3%

Tennessee
Bush – 46%
Edwards – 46%
Others – 4%

Vermont
Edwards – 45%
Bush – 38%
Others – 12%

Virginia
Bush – 50%
Edwards – 43%
Others – 3%

Washington
Edwards – 47%
Bush – 39%
Others – 10%

West Virginia
Edwards – 49%
Bush – 46%
Others – 2%

Wisconsin
Edwards – 47%
Bush – 46%
Others – 2%

Edwards 268, Bush 235, Toss-up 35

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
*An exaggeration of what he said IOTL.

Questions, comments, pictures of cookies, opinions, death threats, and/or other sorts of feedback are appreciated.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

What's the backstory to this?

As in? The divergences from OTL are at the end of the first post.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

What's next?

[JerryArkansas]

bump, I like this tl

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

bump, I like this tl

Dammit, you!

I suppose I will try to dig up my notes, then. Update tomorrow.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I suppose I will try to dig up my notes, then. Update tomorrow.

…or not. See, this is what happens when you plan out your timeline in the margin of your maths notes.
The plan is, I think, gone now, so I'm not quite sure how to continue. Here's an impromptu update.

6 June 2004
CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED

Out of respect for the late Ronald Reagan, both President Bush and Senator Edwards have announced the suspension of their campaigns over the next few days.

15 June 2004
SPECULATION ABOUNDS ON EDWARDS'S RUNNING MATE

Rumours have been swirling about whom Senator Edwards will select as his vice-presidential nominee. Here's a short-list leaked by a source supposedly close to the Senator:

Governor Howard Dean (D-VT)


Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA)


Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)


Senator Jon Corzine (D-NJ)


Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)


Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA)


Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM)


Representative Ed Pastor (D-AZ)



26 June 2004
GREENS NOMINATE CAMEJO

Yesterday, on the third day of their convention, the Green Party voted to nominate activist and perennial candidate Peter Camejo as their Presidential candidate. He has selected David Cobb as his running mate.

Polls as of 6/30/2004

National
Bush – 46%
Edwards – 45%
Others – 4%

Edwards 253, Bush 248, Tied 37
Senate Preview

Democratic hold Republican hold Democratic gain Republican gain

(The polls section was getting a bit annoying. Please ask if you want specifics)

[JerryArkansas]

Polls in arkansas, and north carolina

[Obamanation]

What is going on in NJ ?!

[badgate]

Love the new update, especially the part that features a poll from 8 years into the future

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Polls in arkansas, and north carolina

Arkansas: Edwards 46%, Bush 44%, Others 3%
North Carolina: Edwards 48%, Bush 43%, Others 3%

What is going on in NJ ?!

New Jersey was polling pretty close in real 2004, probably because of the 9/11 effect (?).
I figured that Edwards would do substantially worse than Kerry there.

Love the new update, especially the part that features a poll from 8 years into the future

Thanks!

--

Next update (Friday, hopefully) will be the conventions and a proper Senate run-through.