Obama could become the first completely minority president
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Author Topic: Obama could become the first completely minority president  (Read 6321 times)
rockhound
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« on: October 16, 2012, 02:13:09 PM »

Obama has a chance to win the election without winning either of the two components of the "electoral math"--the popular vote, or the total number of states.

Sometimes candidates win without winning a majority of the states (e.g. Carter), and sometime they win without a majority of the popular vote (e.g. Bush), but never has a president been elected with out being the winner in one or the other of those two elements of the Great Compromise.  Obama could be the first to pull off the double--making him the most minority president ever.
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angus
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2012, 02:30:37 PM »

sometime they win without a majority of the popular vote

Actually, it isn't all that common for a candidate to win the majority of the popular vote.  2004 and 2008 were majorities of the popular vote, but in 1992, 1996, and 2000 the winning candidate didn't win a majority of the popular vote.  This was the case in 1960 and 1968 as well.  I'm sure you can find many more if you go back far enough.  My guess is that more than half of the winners only won a plurality of the popular votes. 

Also, we have had a president who did not win a majority of either the EV or the PV or a majority of the states.  JQ Adams, who served as president from 1825 till 1829 fits the bill.  In 1824, won only 32% of the electoral vote and 31% of the popular vote.  That election was especially exciting because another candidate, Andrew Jackson, won more electoral votes and a greater of the popular vote than Adams.  Additionally, Adams won only 7 of the states out of 23. 

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AmericanNation
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2012, 02:32:37 PM »

He also would have the least number or least diverse combination of 'American Nations' in the Modern Era.


Dems look to win Yankeedom and (Yankeedom's off spring) the Left coast.  1 state of El Norte (New Mexico).   So, That's 1of9 nations or 2of10 depending on how you look at it. 
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billbillerson
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2012, 02:53:48 PM »

I feel like Obama would win New France, New Netherland and Tidewater pretty handily also.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2012, 02:55:47 PM »

So?
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2012, 03:01:50 PM »

He also would have the least number or least diverse combination of 'American Nations' in the Modern Era.


Dems look to win Yankeedom and (Yankeedom's off spring) the Left coast.  1 state of El Norte (New Mexico).   So, That's 1of9 nations or 2of10 depending on how you look at it. 

The Dems win Yankeedom, New Netherland, El Norte, Left Coast, and southern Florida.  Probably Tidewater as well, keep in mind that the most heavily R parts of VA/NC are in Appalachia.  And Midlands might be close, though I can't really tell from looking at it what the East/West population balance is like there.

Not sure how you can get 2/10 out of that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2012, 03:18:12 PM »

How can you have an Appalachia that crosses the Mississippi for fyck's sake? Also a laughable failure to even half understand Canadian politics...
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Sol
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2012, 03:29:09 PM »

How can you have an Appalachia that crosses the Mississippi for fyck's sake? Also a laughable failure to even half understand Canadian politics...
They're squeezing in the Ozarks.
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rockhound
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2012, 03:37:37 PM »

sometime they win without a majority of the popular vote

Actually, it isn't all that common for a candidate to win the majority of the popular vote. 


You are of course correct.  I meant to say he'd not lead in either of the categories.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2012, 03:52:08 PM »

How can you have an Appalachia that crosses the Mississippi for fyck's sake? Also a laughable failure to even half understand Canadian politics...

The Appalachians and Ozarks are remarkably similar in politics and culture. Southern Missouri and West Virginia look much alike.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2012, 04:30:31 PM »

How can you have an Appalachia that crosses the Mississippi for fyck's sake? Also a laughable failure to even half understand Canadian politics...

The Appalachians and Ozarks are remarkably similar in politics and culture. Southern Missouri and West Virginia look much alike.

Have you ever been called a prize buffoon before?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2012, 04:32:03 PM »

How can you have an Appalachia that crosses the Mississippi for fyck's sake? Also a laughable failure to even half understand Canadian politics...
They're squeezing in the Ozarks.

And about half of Texas as well, which is certainly novel.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2012, 04:33:21 PM »

I grew up in Greater Appalachia? Who knew.
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Paul Kemp
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2012, 05:19:44 PM »

So they're already unveiling their talking points should Obama win?
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5280
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2012, 05:24:39 PM »

Greater appalachia in Texas and eastern New Mexico?  I don't believe that.
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useful idiot
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2012, 05:30:50 PM »

He also would have the least number or least diverse combination of 'American Nations' in the Modern Era.


Dems look to win Yankeedom and (Yankeedom's off spring) the Left coast.  1 state of El Norte (New Mexico).   So, That's 1of9 nations or 2of10 depending on how you look at it.  

This is the dumbest map I've ever seen, and if you hang around here you see some stupid maps.

Parts of New Mexico considered "Greater Appalachia"? What on earth do North Dakota and Connecticut have in common culturally (within the US)? Southern Jersey and the Texas Panhandle?
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2012, 05:36:54 PM »

He also would have the least number or least diverse combination of 'American Nations' in the Modern Era.


Dems look to win Yankeedom and (Yankeedom's off spring) the Left coast.  1 state of El Norte (New Mexico).   So, That's 1of9 nations or 2of10 depending on how you look at it.  

This is the dumbest map I've ever seen, and if you hang around here you see some stupid maps.

Parts of New Mexico considered "Greater Appalachia"? What on earth do North Dakota and Connecticut have in common culturally (within the US)? Southern Jersey and the Texas Panhandle?
I've actually been in eastern New Mexico while checking out Carlsbad caverns and parts of Texas while on vacation.  NM has NOTHING in common with the Appalachia.  If I were to compare that region of NM with the map, it's more related to El Norte.
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Donerail
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2012, 06:46:48 PM »

Tampa is so very "Deep South".
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TrapperHawk
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2012, 06:53:09 PM »

He also would have the least number or least diverse combination of 'American Nations' in the Modern Era.


Dems look to win Yankeedom and (Yankeedom's off spring) the Left coast.  1 state of El Norte (New Mexico).   So, That's 1of9 nations or 2of10 depending on how you look at it.  

This is the dumbest map I've ever seen, and if you hang around here you see some stupid maps.

Parts of New Mexico considered "Greater Appalachia"? What on earth do North Dakota and Connecticut have in common culturally (within the US)? Southern Jersey and the Texas Panhandle?

Yes, this map does have some problems. It's news to me that I apparently live in Appalachia now. I wouldn't really consider Austin or Dallas to be part of "Greater Appalachia". Midlands seems a bit too broad as well. I wouldn't put southern New Jersey in the same 'Nation' as western Oklahoma or Kansas.
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memphis
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2012, 06:57:34 PM »

Taking that map at face value and disregarding areas in Mexico and Canada, Obama is likely to win the Left Coast, El Norte, Midlands, Yankeedom, New Netherlands, South Florida, and Tidewater. Romney has the Far West, Greater Appalachia, Deep South, and New France. That's 7-4 Obama, so not sure what Nation's point was. Maybe it was that Alaska and Hawaii are not part of America. I also suspect there are a great many Red Sox fans who would very much resent being told they are part of Yankeedom Tongue
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2012, 07:23:37 PM »

Yeah, that's an utterly stupid map. I'm all about mapping the cultural geography of America with minimal concession to state boundaries, but this map does a lousy, lousy job of it.

FWIW, I think Obama could carry the Midlands. He'd run up huge majorities in metro Philly and south Jersey. The map picks up Democratic areas in OH (Youngstown, Columbus, Toledo) and the Democrat stronghold of St. Louis and KC (plus Columbia) in MO. IA is a wash. Most importantly, other than some suburban counties south of Chicago (that Obama at least might do reasonably well in) the Midlands doesn't contain many high population GOP voting areas (e.g. suburban Cinci).
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2012, 07:30:28 PM »

Taking that map at face value and disregarding areas in Mexico and Canada, Obama is likely to win the Left Coast, El Norte, Midlands, Yankeedom, New Netherlands, South Florida, and Tidewater. Romney has the Far West, Greater Appalachia, Deep South, and New France. That's 7-4 Obama, so not sure what Nation's point was. Maybe it was that Alaska and Hawaii are not part of America. I also suspect there are a great many Red Sox fans who would very much resent being told they are part of Yankeedom Tongue
Obama isn't winning Maricopa county among a few other AZ counties and probably not San Diego county.
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memphis
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2012, 07:51:01 PM »

Taking that map at face value and disregarding areas in Mexico and Canada, Obama is likely to win the Left Coast, El Norte, Midlands, Yankeedom, New Netherlands, South Florida, and Tidewater. Romney has the Far West, Greater Appalachia, Deep South, and New France. That's 7-4 Obama, so not sure what Nation's point was. Maybe it was that Alaska and Hawaii are not part of America. I also suspect there are a great many Red Sox fans who would very much resent being told they are part of Yankeedom Tongue
Obama isn't winning Maricopa county among a few other AZ counties and probably not San Diego county.

He's sure as heck gonna landslide Los Angeles County, which will more than make up Mariocopa and San Diego.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2012, 08:09:53 PM »

Taking that map at face value and disregarding areas in Mexico and Canada, Obama is likely to win the Left Coast, El Norte, Midlands, Yankeedom, New Netherlands, South Florida, and Tidewater. Romney has the Far West, Greater Appalachia, Deep South, and New France. That's 7-4 Obama, so not sure what Nation's point was. Maybe it was that Alaska and Hawaii are not part of America. I also suspect there are a great many Red Sox fans who would very much resent being told they are part of Yankeedom Tongue
Obama isn't winning Maricopa county among a few other AZ counties and probably not San Diego county.

McCain got about a 150,000 vote margin in the AZ portion of El Norte, but Obama got about a 50,000 vote margin in NM, a 125,000 vote margin in TX, and a 1.5 million vote margin in California. It wasn't close.
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jfern
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2012, 08:17:57 PM »

John Quincy Adams meets your silly requirements.
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