The Debate Bounce
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Author Topic: The Debate Bounce  (Read 3639 times)
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #50 on: October 17, 2012, 06:42:44 PM »

No idea. Probably Obama +3-4
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Horus
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« Reply #51 on: October 17, 2012, 06:44:46 PM »

None
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Orion0
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« Reply #52 on: October 17, 2012, 06:47:30 PM »

I would say none. The debate was a wash. With the polling coming back an Obama win but then he loses on a number of key issues, especially on the economy and by large margins at that, it's not a clear victory indicative of a move towards Obama that would result in a significant bounce.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #53 on: October 17, 2012, 10:43:28 PM »

Not much if any, maybe 2 points max. Obama won the debate by most polls, but it wasn't by enough to make much of a difference. There also seemed to be an expectation of an Obama rebound, perhaps connected to some weird American tendency to turn these debates into a three game playoff series where we want to see a rubber match as though we wouldn't if the same candidate won both of the first two. If that last sentence doesn't make any sense, it's not supposed to. Yet it seemed to be the consensus opinion of most of my non-ideologue friends.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #54 on: October 17, 2012, 11:12:28 PM »


You dems really don't know anything.  The president came in behind, lost on the substance of every important issue, failed to outline a vision or a reason to reelect him, failed to rebut the challengers case that he is a failed president with no plan(specifically on the economy, the #1 issue), committed a major gaff with the Libya thing (Again).  He may have won on points(by being overly aggressive and annoying people), but Romney will win votes and Obama will lose votes, which is kinda the point.   

Exactly what would he have to say that would count as a "vision for a second term" to you?  

You can parse the word "vision" a couple different ways.  Clearly Obama has no PLAN and no reason for a second term, but even his objectives of "more teachers" and "moving forward"  are so weak that I can't say that meets the threshold of "vision".  Bush campaigned for reelection on transforming social security into a permanently solvent system and fostering conditions for pro-american democracy to spread throughout the middle east.  Like those positions or not, they are no doubt 'visionary'.  Obama wants to raise taxes and implement his unpopular healthcare reform. Two things already poised to happen if nothing is done.  Maybe he should "pass a budget" a completely new concept I heard about once.  He just doesn't approach the threshold. 

Krauthammer outlines this in reaction to the acceptance speech. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmZh6mV6M08         

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krazen1211
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« Reply #55 on: October 18, 2012, 01:24:22 PM »


Romney might stop gaining at 50-51
Obama might gain a point or two off his 45-46
OR
Romney hits 52+ territory.

0 to -2.


Gallup: -1
Ras: -1
IBD: -1


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J. J.
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« Reply #56 on: October 18, 2012, 01:30:03 PM »


Romney might stop gaining at 50-51
Obama might gain a point or two off his 45-46
OR
Romney hits 52+ territory.

0 to -2.


Gallup: -1
Ras: -1
IBD: -1




It is still early.
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Umengus
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« Reply #57 on: October 18, 2012, 01:34:59 PM »


yes but state polls and ppp confirm that...
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J. J.
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« Reply #58 on: October 18, 2012, 01:42:32 PM »


Those are still early polls and most of them are pre debate.  Calm down everyone.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #59 on: October 18, 2012, 01:42:57 PM »


Are you kidding me?  If Romney gains on that debate performance, this is truly over.  Let the data work themselves out, but if gallup and Ras aren't back to a tie by this weekend, there's no way back to September now.  It might be time for Dems to cut their losses and focus on turning out a <70% white electorate in 2016-20.
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J. J.
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« Reply #60 on: October 18, 2012, 02:48:14 PM »



Are you kidding me?  If Romney gains on that debate performance, this is truly over.  Let the data work themselves out, but if gallup and Ras aren't back to a tie by this weekend, there's no way back to September now.  It might be time for Dems to cut their losses and focus on turning out a <70% white electorate in 2016-20.

It is still too early to see if there was any debate bounce.  Calm down.



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AmericanNation
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« Reply #61 on: October 18, 2012, 07:13:34 PM »


Those are still early polls and most of them are pre debate.  Calm down everyone.
It seems my "shameless" prediction is looking pretty good.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #62 on: October 18, 2012, 07:25:17 PM »

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Iowa: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (NBC News/Marist)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (NBC News/Marist)

The Colorado poll is more favorable to President Obama if Third-Party candidates are included.

It looks much as things were before the first debate, which was very much a do-or-die situation for any chance for Romney.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #63 on: October 18, 2012, 07:31:54 PM »

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Iowa: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (NBC News/Marist)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (NBC News/Marist)

The Colorado poll is more favorable to President Obama if Third-Party candidates are included.

It looks much as things were before the first debate, which was very much a do-or-die situation for any chance for Romney.

Romney is even in Wisconsin, so that poll is only off a minimum of 7 points. 
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Marston
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« Reply #64 on: October 19, 2012, 12:42:41 PM »

October 17th was Obama's best fundraising day ever. Top campaign officials are contributing that to increased enthusiasm among the base after President Obama's debate performance on the 16th. 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #65 on: October 19, 2012, 12:46:10 PM »

It seems my "shameless" prediction is looking pretty good.   


Romney leads in NH in the latest poll.

Bounce, bounce!
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #66 on: October 19, 2012, 01:07:31 PM »

My take on the debates:

Debate --> Result

First Presidential Debate --> Romney takes lead in polls

Vice Presidential Debate --> Bleeding Stops from Obama camp

Second Presidential Debate --> Obama rises to tie Romney

Third Presidential Debate --> Winner will pull ahead of other candidate
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J. J.
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« Reply #67 on: October 19, 2012, 01:21:19 PM »

My take on the debates:

Debate --> Result

First Presidential Debate --> Romney takes lead in polls

Vice Presidential Debate --> Bleeding Stops from Obama camp

Second Presidential Debate --> Obama rises to tie Romney

Third Presidential Debate --> Winner will pull ahead of other candidate

Obama/Biden didn't stop the bleeding, thought they might have cut back the blood flow yet.
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #68 on: October 19, 2012, 01:34:06 PM »

Joe Biden only made himself look like a baffoon on national tv, he didn't contribute to stop Romney's surging numbers.  Obama only played catch up from the 2nd presidential debate.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #69 on: October 19, 2012, 01:42:55 PM »

The polls are just all over the place... I couldn't predict this election if I had a gun to my head.

But I don't think we saw a bounce for Obama in this debate. He still lost on the economy and that is by far the top issue of the day.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #70 on: October 19, 2012, 01:49:07 PM »

Obama takes the lead back on RCP. It's still very early but the debate may have had some impact on the race.
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J. J.
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« Reply #71 on: October 19, 2012, 02:52:47 PM »

Obama takes the lead back on RCP. It's still very early but the debate may have had some impact on the race.

The debate bounce would the 0.1%.  Smiley
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Cliffy
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« Reply #72 on: October 19, 2012, 02:53:21 PM »

It was a dead cat bounce.........  even counting Marist and PPP.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #73 on: October 20, 2012, 02:53:58 AM »

Obama takes the lead back on RCP. It's still very early but the debate may have had some impact on the race.

The debate bounce would the 0.1%.  Smiley

Romney was leading by 1.0%, so your joke doesn't make any sense.
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fj39e20
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« Reply #74 on: October 20, 2012, 03:02:13 AM »


Are you kidding me?  If Romney gains on that debate performance, this is truly over.  Let the data work themselves out, but if gallup and Ras aren't back to a tie by this weekend, there's no way back to September now.  It might be time for Dems to cut their losses and focus on turning out a <70% white electorate in 2016-20.

Nonsense, given Gallups track record in recent elections you're better off considering their RV the equivalent of others LV.
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