Can Mitt Romney recover?
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Author Topic: Can Mitt Romney recover?  (Read 1618 times)
AmericanNation
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2012, 08:04:53 AM »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...]. 

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.     
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opebo
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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2012, 08:14:18 AM »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...]. 

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.     

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:

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AmericanNation
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« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2012, 08:51:42 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2012, 08:53:46 AM by AmericanNation »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...].  

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.    

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:


OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2012, 08:56:18 AM »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...].  

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.    

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:


OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       



OH is not in Mitt's column.  If it ever is, VA will already be there.  Are you worried about Obama winning with 47% there because of Goode?
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2012, 09:06:44 AM »

Well, his problem is the huge bump he got when all those racist white swing voters switched to him in the last week or two just didn't really get him strongly ahead - just more or less tied - and with a weak spot in Ohio.  So.. he doesn't really have to 'recover' so much is it appears that his upper margin was kind of a tossup election.  I think this one will be exciting to watch down to the wire, and I don't think Romney will be clearly ahead at any point from now on.
Please stop trolling.  And I don't think this debate shifts things much.  I would call the debate a draw.  If President Obama gets a surge, it will likely be a small one.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2012, 09:28:12 AM »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...].  

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.    

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:


OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       



OH is not in Mitt's column.  If it ever is, VA will already be there.  Are you worried about Obama winning with 47% there because of Goode?
Right, I think OH will move into Mitt's column shortly, he finally has traction and will continue to move that state hi way. 

I think VA will probably be there for Mitt, but I see a plausible scenario where he loses close because Obama has a large immovable constituency for him there and that could be enough to build a firewall (win by a sliver).  Obama could lose ground everywhere and gain ground in VA if he focused his efforts theoretically, so I keep that possibility open. 

 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2012, 09:32:29 AM »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...].  

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.    

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:


OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       



OH is not in Mitt's column.  If it ever is, VA will already be there.  Are you worried about Obama winning with 47% there because of Goode?
Right, I think OH will move into Mitt's column shortly, he finally has traction and will continue to move that state hi way. 

I think VA will probably be there for Mitt, but I see a plausible scenario where he loses close because Obama has a large immovable constituency for him there and that could be enough to build a firewall (win by a sliver).  Obama could lose ground everywhere and gain ground in VA if he focused his efforts theoretically, so I keep that possibility open. 

 

Well if Obama is smart, he will have Romney saying "the government doesn't create jobs" playing non-stop on every television and radio station in Fairfax for the next week.  I do see an Obama opening in VA because of that.  But I also think Obama has the momentum as of last night, so we disagree more fundamentally.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2012, 11:24:16 AM »

Maybe I watched the wrong debate. I thought Romney did really well, and the debate was a tie at best, with a slight edge to Romney.

Even if Romney has dropped his pants and defecated before cameras you'd still believe he did well. It's just the way you are.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2012, 12:03:30 PM »

Obama/Biden is sitting on A devastating loss and two Pyrrhic "victories", so the question is:  Can Obama recover? 
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opebo
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« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2012, 12:15:50 PM »

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:

OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       



No, no.  There hasn't been nearly enough traction in Ohio to put it as going for Romney in your map, that's just wishful thinking.. and he's down 2-3 points in all of the rest: Iowa, Wisconsin, or Nevada.  The swing states where he seems to be winning (only by a point or two outside of North Carolina) Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado - just don't get him there.

Here's the real state of the race:



And here's how it goes if we include the slight leans:



A 277 Obama win.   
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« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2012, 12:33:17 PM »

If Romney decisively won last night he would be on his way to the White House, however he is still in a much better position than he was pre-Debate 1. His favorables are up and he has finally passed the acceptable test. Essentially Debate 1 was a do over of the RNC and finally gave him that bump he needed. Those perceptions were not erased last night. If Team Romney runs a smart campaign with good free and paid media and he has a good performance in the next debate he can win this thing.

I think Romney walked into the debate last night with a 45% chance of winning and walked out with a 41% chance of winning. He is very much still in the game.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2012, 02:18:23 PM »

If, inspite of what I'm thinking, the polls remain the same after the debate, then I think the theory that people were just looking for a reason, any reason, not to vote for Obama may be correct.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2012, 04:21:13 PM »

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:

OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       



No, no.  There hasn't been nearly enough traction in Ohio to put it as going for Romney in your map, that's just wishful thinking.. and he's down 2-3 points in all of the rest: Iowa, Wisconsin, or Nevada.  The swing states where he seems to be winning (only by a point or two outside of North Carolina) Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado - just don't get him there.

Here's the real state of the race:



And here's how it goes if we include the slight leans:



A 277 Obama win.   

Romney is up to 51% in one of the trackers.  Obama isn't sitting on 277 trailing by 6 to a guy above 50.
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polnut
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« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2012, 05:15:09 PM »

You're going to cling to Gallup... OK then.
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