Can Mitt Romney recover? (user search)
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  Can Mitt Romney recover? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Can Mitt Romney recover?  (Read 1648 times)
AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« on: October 17, 2012, 08:04:53 AM »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...]. 

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.     
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AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2012, 08:51:42 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2012, 08:53:46 AM by AmericanNation »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...].  

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.    

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:


OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       

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AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2012, 09:28:12 AM »

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...].  

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.    

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:


OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       



OH is not in Mitt's column.  If it ever is, VA will already be there.  Are you worried about Obama winning with 47% there because of Goode?
Right, I think OH will move into Mitt's column shortly, he finally has traction and will continue to move that state hi way. 

I think VA will probably be there for Mitt, but I see a plausible scenario where he loses close because Obama has a large immovable constituency for him there and that could be enough to build a firewall (win by a sliver).  Obama could lose ground everywhere and gain ground in VA if he focused his efforts theoretically, so I keep that possibility open. 

 
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AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2012, 12:03:30 PM »

Obama/Biden is sitting on A devastating loss and two Pyrrhic "victories", so the question is:  Can Obama recover? 
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AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2012, 04:21:13 PM »

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:

OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       



No, no.  There hasn't been nearly enough traction in Ohio to put it as going for Romney in your map, that's just wishful thinking.. and he's down 2-3 points in all of the rest: Iowa, Wisconsin, or Nevada.  The swing states where he seems to be winning (only by a point or two outside of North Carolina) Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado - just don't get him there.

Here's the real state of the race:



And here's how it goes if we include the slight leans:



A 277 Obama win.   

Romney is up to 51% in one of the trackers.  Obama isn't sitting on 277 trailing by 6 to a guy above 50.
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