Undecideds will break for...?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The undecideds normally break against the incumbent. They've had 4 years to know Obama. If they haven't convinced themselves to vote for him by now they likely won't.

There almost as many times where the undecideds break FOR the incumbent than against them.

FTR I think they'll break for Romney but not by anywhere enough.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Undecideds break for the challenger ALWAYS its just a matter of how much. I think Romney is uniquely unfavorable in this situation, so I think it'll be 60/40 in his favor, which really isn't that great.

They broke 57% for Bush in 2004.

Regardless, I'd expect something like 58-42 for Romney.

Oh wow, derp me! haha

In fact... there was a very good analysis by Nate Silver that showed incumbents are almost as likely to get a very late bounce in their direction, at the same time having the challenger get a majority of undecideds.