Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!)
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Author Topic: Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!)  (Read 1858 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: October 17, 2012, 05:56:04 PM »
« edited: October 17, 2012, 06:07:42 PM by The Vorlon »

Ok, here is my best guess at to how an election would turn out if held today:



I am being VERY aggressive in calling states, and have no tossups, I give every state my best guess.

Virginia & Colorado are so close, if somebody had them in the Obama column I wouldn't argue too hard...

So assuming that my Romney @ 257 is correct... that means he needs 12 more EVs to win the Presidency (I am assuming a 269/269 tie would resolve in Romney's favour in the House)

So here is the question, if you were running Romney's campaign, where would you go all out?

In addition to a continued full court press in Colorado and Virginia, where are the next 12 EVS...?

Any of the following combinations would gain him victory:

Ohio with 18 EVs = Victory

Wisconsin (10 EVs) + any other state = Victory

Nevada (6)  + Iowa (6)  = Victory
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2012, 05:58:01 PM »

Wisconsin (10 EVs) + any other state = Victory
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2012, 05:59:24 PM »

I would consolidate VA/CO while going all out on OH/WI/NH. Ignore NV.
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2012, 06:00:46 PM »

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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2012, 06:08:54 PM »

Probably Wisconsin and New Hampshire. I think he is underestimating that state. It turned hard right in 2010 and he's been polling well there. It's also his "home state" and he spent a year there campaigning for the primaries.

Nevada normally polls close and then ends up a convincing win for the Democrats. It happened in 2008 and in 2010 when Reid beat Angle by 5% when polls showed them tied or her ahead. I also think Ohio is gone in the sense that he shouldn't spend a ton of money there. Romney just is not a good fit for Ohioans. If he wins Ohio I think he will have won the election anyway.

But I'm not sold on VA/CO being in his column. It might be possible he wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college.
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Zanas
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2012, 06:25:21 PM »

With this map and the recent polls, I would follow Senator Duke and say WI/NH. Actually, if WI flips as some polls might indicate, NH with its 4 EVs could be the deciding state, which would be awesome for a change.

As an Obama supporter I wouldn't give up on CO and VA, or even FL, so quickly though.
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Donerail
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2012, 06:25:49 PM »

If Virginia and Colorado are had, the next targets for the Romney campaign should be Iowa and Nevada. I don't buy Wisconsin swinging; that's fools gold for the Romney camp. Iowa/Nevada are the most winnable, with New Hampshire and then Ohio close behind.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2012, 06:32:41 PM »

I tend to believe NV is gone, so spend as much as possible in OH and WI.
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Zanas
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2012, 06:34:37 PM »

I'm hearing all over the place that NV is always underpolling and overvoting D. So what is now a tossup could mean a D+4 to 6. Is it only 2008 and 2010 or does it go further back ?

Not sure about IA : more winnable than WI ? No Ryan effect ? They seem to work a bit as a couple, but I really can't see which one would flip first.
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Orion0
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2012, 06:42:52 PM »

Consolidate Colorado foremost. Lock it down and then that allows two plausible ways to victory.
First is Ohio which would be 275 ev.
Second scenario is Wisconsin + New Hampshire which would be 271 ev. both of which I think could be won relatively easily with focus in these last couple weeks, and personally I think are stronger candidates for going Romney than Nevada or Iowa.

But Colorado remains in my view the easiest state to move into comfortable territory. And of course to get these results I'm giving FL, NC and VA to Romney. I cannot really see him losing those at this stage.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2012, 06:47:49 PM »

I would consolidate VA/CO while going all out on OH/WI/NH. Ignore NV.

this
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2012, 06:57:16 PM »

Obviously OH.

Not so obvious would be WI and either IA, NH or NV, without OH.  Without OH and WI, IA, NH, and NV for a clear victory.  The way things stand now, NV is the most difficult.

That assumes that, on election day, it will be close.  I would not make that assumption for at least a week, if not a fortnight.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2012, 06:58:20 PM »

Why "Romney supporters only" exactly? I guess you're the only ones who can think objectively... Roll Eyes So much that my prediction map is actually the same as yours.

Anyways, Romney has two paths: flip WI and NH or IA, or flip Ohio. Both are conceivable, but would require him gaining around 2 to 3 points. Nevada won't be nearly as close as what the polls says, and banking on it would be a huge mistake. And of course, CO, VA and FL are far from assured.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2012, 07:01:16 PM »

This obviously requires that very sophisticated internal polling that is better than the public polls and knowledge of what is going on on the ground ska turnout models, and what if anything is left in the campaign as a card to play, such as something we don't know about the Libya thing, and who did what to whom when.  

Having said that I feel good about Iowa, and somewhat good about NH, and as others have noted, not so good about NV. So it comes down to WI and OH, and as to that I don't have a clue. None. And is MI that much worse?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2012, 07:03:23 PM »


Yes.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2012, 07:23:34 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2012, 07:25:55 PM by The Vorlon »

Why "Romney supporters only" exactly? I guess you're the only ones who can think objectively... Roll Eyes So much that my prediction map is actually the same as yours.


Was trying to avoid "your map is %^%$!, Obama is ahead in Texas!"  responses from the hard core KOSkiddies

Comments from (sane) Democrats, Libertarians, and independents are always welcome. Smiley

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2012, 07:38:21 PM »

In this case I think the conventional wisdom is right, it is all about OH. Obama's last line of defense firewall is WI+OH+NV (giving him 271). Of those 3, Romney's best chance is OH.
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5280
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2012, 07:39:51 PM »

I would add Iowa and maybe New Hampshire to the map. Nevada has too many California transplants to make it in Romney column.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2012, 08:01:18 PM »

Why "Romney supporters only" exactly? I guess you're the only ones who can think objectively... Roll Eyes So much that my prediction map is actually the same as yours.


Was trying to avoid "your map is %^%$!, Obama is ahead in Texas!"  responses from the hard core KOSkiddies

Comments from (sane) Democrats, Libertarians, and independents are always welcome. Smiley

I hope you realize that the number of democrats who think Obama is ahead in Texas is roughly the same as that of republicans who think Romney is ahead in Massachusetts.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2012, 08:10:17 PM »

Why "Romney supporters only" exactly? I guess you're the only ones who can think objectively... Roll Eyes So much that my prediction map is actually the same as yours.


Was trying to avoid "your map is %^%$!, Obama is ahead in Texas!"  responses from the hard core KOSkiddies

Comments from (sane) Democrats, Libertarians, and independents are always welcome. Smiley

I hope you realize that the number of democrats who think Obama is ahead in Texas is roughly the same as that of republicans who think Romney is ahead in Massachusetts.

That would be the KOSkiddies Smiley

And what do you mean Mitt is behind in Mass?
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2012, 08:16:13 PM »

At the bare minimum, I'd say the big three are Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio. It gives Romney some options. Maybe throw New Hampshire into the spending column too.

I'd also keep spending in Virginia and Colorado.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2012, 11:29:37 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 12:07:14 AM by AmericanNation »

If Romney is going to win Colorado, than Ohio and Wisconsin are where you go.  That gets you there.  VA and NH are the 'back up Ohio' -- 17(combined) and 18 EVs respectively.  Iowa and NV would be icing, but probably aren't the deciders this year.  Wisconsin is key, it would make things simple for Mitt.  Iowa only works with Ohio and another state, which is a complicated thread of the needle, so Iowa and NH are the 'back up wisconsin' that requires Ohio.  Let the Mitzkrieg of ads begin.      


Most of this fits with Obama’s New Firewall: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/330793/obamas-new-firewall-ohio-iowa-new-hampshire-and-nevada

Is Team Obama blind to dead heat Wisconsin? 
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Ljube
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2012, 03:08:14 AM »

This obviously requires that very sophisticated internal polling that is better than the public polls and knowledge of what is going on on the ground ska turnout models, and what if anything is left in the campaign as a card to play, such as something we don't know about the Libya thing, and who did what to whom when.  

Having said that I feel good about Iowa, and somewhat good about NH, and as others have noted, not so good about NV. So it comes down to WI and OH, and as to that I don't have a clue. None. And is MI that much worse?

Are you voting for Romney in Iowa? Each vote may count.
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5280
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2012, 03:26:41 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 03:31:20 AM by 5280 »

Like I said in the other thread, if Romney doesn't win both Ohio and Virginia, he's done.  Those two combined have the most electoral votes. He should still throw money into CO/FL to keep them in his column.
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morgieb
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2012, 06:52:11 AM »

He needs to go all out in Ohio. That is the crucial state of the election. Can't really see him winning Nevada - Democrats always underpoll there.
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