Which 3rd party is most likely to win a state in the next 50 years?

[DC Al Fine]

I picked the Libertarians because they seem like the only ones who could take votes from both Republicans and Democrats.

[Bacon King]

Other:

A party that doesn't exist yet (and is created for an independent candidate's candidacy, like the Reform Party was) is much more likely to win a state in the next fifty years than any party that currently exists.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Of these, the Libertarians. It'll probably be like New Hampshire or Iowa.

Just kidding it'll be Alabama

[homelycooking]

None of the above, because they're all 0% likely to win a state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Vermont or Maine seem like the most likely states.

[Lief 🗽]

What Bacon King said. All the current parties are unorganized fringe parties run by idiots and crazies that no one takes seriously. The best chance for a third party winning a state is a one-off third party organized for a specific election, like George Wallace or Ross Perot. But perennial fringe parties aren't going anywhere.

[Spanish Moss]

I think, considering the Democrats continue to move rightward, it will be a liberal party - but not the Greens, since their view in the public eye is relatively sealed.  It will be a new party propped up around someone either with a lot of money, or with a lot of name power - and I don't see it happening until the Democrats get much worse than they already are.

[bgwah]

Other:

A party that doesn't exist yet (and is created for an independent candidate's candidacy, like the Reform Party was) is much more likely to win a state in the next fifty years than any party that currently exists.

Meh, that already happens fairly frequently (CT For Lieberman comes to mind)...

Anyway, kind of interesting that the Constitution Party has the least votes, considering they've come closest of the three parties listed.

[DC Al Fine]

Other:

A party that doesn't exist yet (and is created for an independent candidate's candidacy, like the Reform Party was) is much more likely to win a state in the next fifty years than any party that currently exists.

Meh, that already happens fairly frequently (CT For Lieberman comes to mind)...

Anyway, kind of interesting that the Constitution Party has the least votes, considering they've come closest of the three parties listed.

Are you referring to Tancredo's run in 2010 or something else?

[bgwah]

yes.

[ag]

Other. Most likely, if any third party does it, it would be some party w/ a regional focus that would emerge temporarily due to a split in one of the major parties.

[Cryptic]

Other:

A party that doesn't exist yet (and is created for an independent candidate's candidacy, like the Reform Party was) is much more likely to win a state in the next fifty years than any party that currently exists.

Agree

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Other.  It'll be a party that rises up that election.

[Spanish Moss]

Other.  It'll be a party that rises up that election.

Yeah, while winner-take-all always ultimately results in two party domination, I highly doubt those two parties will always be the Democrats and Republicans, and at some point one of them will go the way of the Whigs.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Other.  It'll be a party that rises up that election.

Yeah, while winner-take-all always ultimately results in two party domination, I highly doubt those two parties will always be the Democrats and Republicans, and at some point one of them will go the way of the Whigs.

Thing is that collapsed parties like the Whigs and Federalists fell for specific reasons. It'll take something like a party waffling on a serious issue (like the Whigs on slavery) or a one-party domination over a period of time (like the Democratic Republicans) to cause a new party/system to emerge.

[Niemeyerite]

Constitution party could win in Alabama/Mississippi/Oklahoma if republicans nominate Huntsman and he picks a democrat as his running mate in 2016 .

[Badger]

Other:

A party that doesn't exist yet (and is created for an independent candidate's candidacy, like the Reform Party was) is much more likely to win a state in the next fifty years than any party that currently exists.

This.

Though there is maybe a tiny chance that some weird inter-party schism in someplace like Alaska or Vermont (didn't it briefy appear as if Murkowski might run as the Libertarian nominee?) which would result in a dissafected Republican or Democrat being forced by state election laws regarding deadlines for independent candidates to run as a Libertarian or a Green and winning in a 3 way race.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Constitution party could win in Alabama/Mississippi/Oklahoma if republicans nominate Huntsman and he picks a democrat as his running mate in 2016 .

Oklahoma has the worst ballot access laws in the country for third parties. I think McCain and Obama were the only ones on the ballot there in 2008.

[BringinTheTruth]

Oklahoma is Republican, but also populist.  No third party will ever be on a ballot there, nor need there be.  Any third party I create in my backyard is as likely to win a state as any other.

[Spanish Moss]

Constitution party could win in Alabama/Mississippi/Oklahoma if republicans nominate Huntsman and he picks a democrat as his running mate in 2016 .

Oklahoma has the worst ballot access laws in the country for third parties. I think McCain and Obama were the only ones on the ballot there in 2008.

I think this year the only difference is Gary Johnson is as well.  Here in New York, there's like 7 or so, I believe.  Even the Party for Socialism and Liberation got on the ballot here, and their candidate is in her 20s.

[Donerail]

Constitution party could win in Alabama/Mississippi/Oklahoma if republicans nominate Huntsman and he picks a democrat as his running mate in 2016 .

Oklahoma has the worst ballot access laws in the country for third parties. I think McCain and Obama were the only ones on the ballot there in 2008.

I think this year the only difference is Gary Johnson is as well.  Here in New York, there's like 7 or so, I believe.  Even the Party for Socialism and Liberation got on the ballot here, and their candidate is in her 20s.

I think the Oklahoma authorities booted Johnson off the AE line in Oklahoma.

[Spanish Moss]

Constitution party could win in Alabama/Mississippi/Oklahoma if republicans nominate Huntsman and he picks a democrat as his running mate in 2016 .

Oklahoma has the worst ballot access laws in the country for third parties. I think McCain and Obama were the only ones on the ballot there in 2008.

I think this year the only difference is Gary Johnson is as well.  Here in New York, there's like 7 or so, I believe.  Even the Party for Socialism and Liberation got on the ballot here, and their candidate is in her 20s.

I think the Oklahoma authorities booted Johnson off the AE line in Oklahoma.

I'm just wondering how long it'll be before the vast majority of states become like Oklahoma.  Because honestly, I see it going in that direction.

[BringinTheTruth]

Constitution party could win in Alabama/Mississippi/Oklahoma if republicans nominate Huntsman and he picks a democrat as his running mate in 2016 .

Oklahoma has the worst ballot access laws in the country for third parties. I think McCain and Obama were the only ones on the ballot there in 2008.

Meaning what?  Overwhelmingly Republican?  We can only hope so.  Johnson could be on the Oklahoma ballot, and Romney would still get 65% of the vote.  3rd parties are an epic waste of time in that state.

I think this year the only difference is Gary Johnson is as well.  Here in New York, there's like 7 or so, I believe.  Even the Party for Socialism and Liberation got on the ballot here, and their candidate is in her 20s.

I think the Oklahoma authorities booted Johnson off the AE line in Oklahoma.

I'm just wondering how long it'll be before the vast majority of states become like Oklahoma.  Because honestly, I see it going in that direction.

[Comrade Funk]

In a state race? Minnesota Independence Party or Vermont Progressive Party.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

In a state race? Minnesota Independence Party or Vermont Progressive Party.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Ventura