CO-PPP: Obama leads by 3%

[backtored]

It's a D +3 sample.  That doesn't even pass the laugh test.  The National Journal story was probably legit--if you can only must a three-point lead when you oversample Democrats by six points, then you're probably in real trouble.

With PPP, you have to peel beneath the numbers to get the real story.

[backtored]

YouGov, Grove, PPP all have CO at +3 for the President.  Probably about right.  

An Internet poll and two Democratic polls walk into a bar...

And almost everybody else has Romney winning.

[5280]

It's a D +3 sample.  That doesn't even pass the laugh test.  The National Journal story was probably legit--if you can only must a three-point lead when you oversample Democrats by six points, then you're probably in real trouble.

With PPP, you have to peel beneath the numbers to get the real story.

I never trusted the PPP.

[Yank2133]

Once again Republicans prove they don't understand party ID.........

[backtored]

Once again Republicans prove they don't understand party ID.........

Every other pollster has pegged it at R +1, which itself is a rather D-friendly number for Colorado.  Even putting actual party registration aside, there is no way that any exit poll will ever show more Democrats showing up than Republicans.  A D +3 number borders on farsical.

PPP has consistently been considerably to the left of virtually every other pollster in Colorado polling.  Maybe that's because they're so right and everybody else is so wrong.  Maybe.  But you can't deny the fact that PPP is standing out on a (left) limb here.  When party registration has trended Republican, Gallup party ID has trended Republican, and the general electoral climate is much better for Republican today than it was in 2008, Colorado would have had to undergone dramatic changes to have become four-points more Democratic today than four years ago.  Moreover, Romney's numbers have consistently been warmer here than in most other swing states.  PPP is an anomaly.  That's undeniable.  You might think they're onto something that nobody else is, but this is an absolute outlier.

[DrScholl]

PPP doesn't weight for party ID, so it's totally irrelevant to harp on it. Even at the top of Romney's bounce, he only had a +1 lead, it's very conceivable that Obama recovered some points in the state. Lastly, party ID is very fluid, some independents can end up in either party's sample in any poll. Some independents likely correlate how they plan to vote with party ID.

[Yank2133]

PPP doesn't weight for party ID, so it's totally irrelevant to harp on it. Even at the top of Romney's bounce, he only had a +1 lead, it's very conceivable that Obama recovered some points in the state. Lastly, party ID is very fluid, some independents can end up in either party's sample in any poll. Some independents likely correlate how they plan to vote with party ID.

Pretty much this.

[GMantis]

Between CO, IA and NH, they said CO was the best of the three for Obama.  That's a huge problem.

Who is "they" and when did they say it? Because that hasn't been true for a while.

[Gass3268]

Between CO, IA and NH, they said CO was the best of the three for Obama.  That's a huge problem.

Who is "they" and when did they say it? Because that hasn't been true for a while.

PPP tweeted that last night. We'll have to see if that claim remains true.

[GMantis]

There's actually little change in the numbers when you look at the question including Gary Johnson: Obama's lead shrinks from 6% in September to 5% now.

It's not 5%, it's 3%.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

There's actually little change in the numbers when you look at the question including Gary Johnson: Obama's lead shrinks from 6% in September to 5% now.

It's not 5%, it's 3%.

With third party candidates' names included, how the actual ballot looks, obama leads by 5. With just Romney and Obama he leads by 3.

[Gustaf]

So, PPP thinks Colorady is the same as Washington? Huh...

[Person Man]

Not saying this is possible, but what if this is the map on election day?

[5280]

Not saying this is possible, but what if this is the map on election day?

If that was the map, I'll be happy the R/R ticket won but I'll have a good reason to move out of CO for good.

[pbrower2a]

There's actually little change in the numbers when you look at the question including Gary Johnson: Obama's lead shrinks from 6% in September to 5% now.

It's not 5%, it's 3%.

With third party candidates' names included, how the actual ballot looks, obama leads by 5. With just Romney and Obama he leads by 3.

I am going with the result with the Third Party nominees included. They will be on the ballot whatever else happens.

I had just rejected two partisan polls that showed President Obama up 3 (one R, and one D) in favor of a tie.

[Sbane]

If CO has the same effects as NV I think Obama will win the state by 4 if things go like they are now.

I'm going to put out the blame of ignorant people who don't do enough research on why should Obama get another 4 years. It's simple as that.

Yes, anyone who disagrees with you is an ignorant who doesn't do enough research.
Sure you're not a Paulite?

If somebody voted for Obama the first time, and votes Romney the 2nd time, its enough evidence that they're not ignorant and done their research on why they changed sides.  Obama already proved to us his record, and voting for him again is appalling.  I don't need to get into details and specifics about each voters record.

During Republican rule this country was plunged into a deep recession. Now we have the unemployment rate back at 7.8% and the economy is doing pretty good when compared to the rest of the world. The deficit and debt are a problem, and the Republicans could have exploited that, but they are advocating 20% tax cuts while raising defense spending and not really outlining what deductions they will cut to offset these tax cuts. So the Republicans have no credibility there either. So why exactly should a thinking person vote for Romney? The way I look at it, the idiots and ignoramuses are the ones who look at the situation today and immediately blame Obama without looking at the context of the hand he was given. You guys are the ones with short term memory loss.

[User157088589849]

Not saying this is possible, but what if this is the map on election day?

If that was the map, I'll be happy the R/R ticket won but I'll have a good reason to move out of CO for good.

colorado will be a better place without you. who will have the misfortune of having you?

[5280]

Not saying this is possible, but what if this is the map on election day?

If that was the map, I'll be happy the R/R ticket won but I'll have a good reason to move out of CO for good.

colorado will be a better place without you. who will have the misfortune of having you?

CO was better back in the 1980s before 'everybody' and their mom's dog decided to move here. I'm sorry, but if your state failed miserably (California) due to high taxes, standards of living, regulations and of that sort, don't come here and change the demographics with your voting habits. They're blinded by belief and reality escaped a long time ago.

I hate to say this, but alot of Democrats are like vermin cockaroaches, they take over an area, spew their dirty political garbage, walk all over you and move on to the next state. It's an endless cycle and needs to be halted. The blue blood bleeds over and turns the healthy into infected victims.

[Chaddyr23]

Not saying this is possible, but what if this is the map on election day?

If that was the map, I'll be happy the R/R ticket won but I'll have a good reason to move out of CO for good.

colorado will be a better place without you. who will have the misfortune of having you?

CO was better back in the 1980s before 'everybody' and their mom's dog decided to move here. I'm sorry, but if your state failed miserably (California) due to high taxes, standards of living, regulations and of that sort, don't come here and change the demographics with your voting habits. They're blinded by belief and reality escaped a long time ago.

I hate to say this, but alot of Democrats are like vermin cockaroaches, they take over an area, spew their dirty political garbage, walk all over you and move on to the next state. It's an endless cycle and needs to be halted. The blue blood bleeds over and turns the healthy into infected victims.

Never mind  that there's conservative states that are fiscal messes to from Florida to Arizona. Or the fact there are entire nations with a more economically liberal policies that are much better off. So, you can relax. If you feel so offended by your fellow Americans from a different party you can always move abroad.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Not saying this is possible, but what if this is the map on election day?

If that was the map, I'll be happy the R/R ticket won but I'll have a good reason to move out of CO for good.

colorado will be a better place without you. who will have the misfortune of having you?

CO was better back in the 1980s before 'everybody' and their mom's dog decided to move here. I'm sorry, but if your state failed miserably (California) due to high taxes, standards of living, regulations and of that sort, don't come here and change the demographics with your voting habits. They're blinded by belief and reality escaped a long time ago.

I hate to say this, but alot of Democrats are like vermin cockaroaches, they take over an area, spew their dirty political garbage, walk all over you and move on to the next state. It's an endless cycle and needs to be halted. The blue blood bleeds over and turns the healthy into infected victims.

Life is tough.

[Person Man]

But with other polls, it does look like Colorado might pull another 2010. This could be a part of the realignment, if there is a realignment and the narrative would then be that the Republicans have reestablished their national party machine after 12 years of trying with qualified success and that the Democrats path back to relevancy is through a coalition of latte liberals and Perot-exurbanites. The constituents in the down market just don't vote and trying to get them to vote has convinced who we should be courting to vote Republican.

That's basically the meme that will come out of 2012 if Obama loses-

Poor people don't, or  perhaps, and in some cimcumstances can't  vote.

At either rate, the Democrats will not get another shot of real power until the demographics actually are "there" or until there is a crisis which is allowed to grow into its natural consequences.

Perhaps the election of 2008 and the resulting Obama presidency just came too soon.

[J. J.]

Not saying this is possible, but what if this is the map on election day?

If you take PA out, it would be even more possible. 

[opebo]

Colorado seems to be trending Obama as OH/PA/NH etc trend Romney.. same could be said of Virginia.  The new map: