Do you feel like this is 2004 all over again, but with the parties switched?

[Ljube]

No, it looks like 2000.

[SPQR]

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52-48 in the PV, add say +2 for the pollster margin of error + shifts in Romney's favor, it could happen.

Romney's taken the first two steps he needs to do to win - lock down Indiana, Florida and North Carolina.

If Colorado is a true tossup, that means the true battlegrounds are WI/OH/IA/VA/CO/NH. That's a much more makeable map for Romney, especially if he can get ahead in VA and stay ahead in CO. Then all he needs is Ohio, or WI/IA/NH.

Sorry,when did he exactly "lock down Florida and North Carolina"?

[J. J.]

I've been looking at 1980, prior to the time we knew who the nominees would be in 2008. 

I guess we have a successor to "Congrats,Phil".

It isn't partisan.  I think it it is a historical trend, and I was willing to say the same if a Republican won in 2008.

[SPQR]

I've been looking at 1980, prior to the time we knew who the nominees would be in 2008. 

I guess we have a successor to "Congrats,Phil".

It isn't partisan.  I think it it is a historical trend, and I was willing to say the same if a Republican won in 2008.

Allright.
But,anyway,being coherently wrong for 4 years doesn't make it any better...

[Wisconsin+17]

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Obama's faded in both. OH + VA + CO is doable.

[Stirring Wolf🥣🐺]

I was actually thinking the 1980 realignment scenario was very possible up until two or three days ago.  Now I agree that this seems like just another polarized election.