Do you feel like this is 2004 all over again, but with the parties switched?

[BaldEagle1991]

Don't you think is kind of like 2004? With a moderately-popular incumbent facing a big issue (for Bush it was the Iraq War and for Obama it's the recession and jobs), the challenger has a slight strong following, and the race is somewhat neck and neck. The only obvious difference here is the two parties are switched.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I've been thinking about this for a while. Romney also tends to have the same problems as Kerry: being perceived as and aloof aristocrat ready to flip-flop on every issue.

[BaldEagle1991]

Yeah, I've been thinking about this for a while. Romney also tends to have the same problems as Kerry: being perceived as and aloof aristocrat ready to flip-flop on every issue.

That whole flip-flopping issue that both Kerry and Romney were accused of, makes it even much closer to 2004. Heck, they're also both Bay Staters.

[J. J.]

No, it feels more like 1980.

[Cryptic]

I kinda get the vibe that it's a 2004-like race.  We'll know for sure soon. 

[Lief 🗽]

No, it feels more like 1980.

lol

[5280]

The race feels like 2004, but the election turnout on election night will be 1980.

[Likely Voter]

yes the parallels to 2004 have been noted many times. Like Bush, Obama opened up a good lead after the conventions. Like Kerry, Romney pulled even after a strong first debate and like Bush, Obama rallied for his second debate. And like 2004, the race appears to be coming down to OH with the incumbent having the advantage. It's also worth noting that today Obama's approval rating average is about the same as Bush's was on election day, and much higher than Carter's in 1980.

Of course all that is meaningless...no two elections are the same as as that cartoon noted, precedents are meant to be broken.

[BaldEagle1991]

No, it feels more like 1980.

The race feels like 2004, but the election turnout on election night will be 1980.

This is the reason why...

It's also worth noting that today Obama's approval rating average is about the same as Bush's was on election day, and much higher than Carter's in 1980.

...it won't be like 1980.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The race feels like 2004, but the election turnout on election night will be 1980.

I'm sure you'll find some more non-ignorant types to vote for Romney.

This whole campaign has felt like 2004 ... but since the first debate it's also got a touch of 2000's volatility.

[Skill and Chance]

The only problem with the 2004 comparisons is that Kerry never took a lead in the polling averages post-conventions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The only problem with the 2004 comparisons is that Kerry never took a lead in the polling averages post-conventions.

True, but did come extremely close.

[Likely Voter]

Its true that Kerry didn't pull ahead in the national avg, but he did lead in some national polls and he was able to show leads in the states including OH, as you can see from this map
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ec_graph-2012.html

[Skill and Chance]

No, it feels more like 1980.

It feels like 1976.  Obama is narrowly trailing despite 48-50% approval.  Carter had mid-30% approval at this time in 1980.

[BaldEagle1991]

Its true that Kerry didn't pull ahead in the national avg, but he did lead in some national polls and he was able to show leads in the states including OH, as you can see from this map
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ec_graph-2012.html

I had to facepalm looking at the 2008 polls and saw that the Paris Hilton ad was used as a benchmark event.

[Cryptic]

No, it feels more like 1980.

The race feels like 2004, but the election turnout on election night will be 1980.

Obama's approval is still high and the electorate is far more polarized than 1980.  Whoever wins will likely have a victory margin similar to Bush.  

[The Vorlon]

The nation is so polarized I am not sure a 50 state victory like Reagan had in 1984 is even conceptually possible anymore.

I have bounced back and forth between the is this 1980 or 2004 debate as well.

If you look at the RCP averages there has been a surprising amount of volatility in 2012, more than I would of guessed.

I am voting 2004, but I still think a 1980 Carter like face plant for Obama is still possible.

[Likely Voter]

As I said, 2004 was also all about OH. If Kerry won OH he would have won the election, even if it was a PV/EV split. And if you look at the OH polls from mid October 2004 Kerry was actually ahead in more of than than Bush.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html

So you could say that Kerry was actually doing better than Romney as he was able to show an EV advantage, something Romney has never been able to do in either of his surges (after RNC and after Debate 1). Romney has only lead one OH poll in October and that was Gravis right after the first debate.

RE: 1980
Not really even worth discussing. Different era, different electorate, different economy, different approvals, Romney not Reagan, etc, etc. Even if Romney wins, it wont be a 1980 parallel. It will still be a 2004 parallel, except with the challenger winning, which almost happened.

[Cliffy]

Closer to 80, you'd like to think it's like 04.

[Comrade Funk]

Closer to 80, you'd like to think it's like 04.

Well, I think it's clear you're a troll/hack now. Even Republicans realize he isn't winning a landslide.

[morgieb]

Yes.

[SPQR]

Since so many Republicans think this is 1980 all over again,I guess the forum will be pretty empty come the post-election day...after Obama's (tight) victory.

[J. J.]

I've been looking at 1980, prior to the time we knew who the nominees would be in 2008.  

[SPQR]

I've been looking at 1980, prior to the time we knew who the nominees would be in 2008. 

I guess we have a successor to "Congrats,Phil".

[Wisconsin+17]

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52-48 in the PV, add say +2 for the pollster margin of error + shifts in Romney's favor, it could happen.

Romney's taken the first two steps he needs to do to win - lock down Indiana, Florida and North Carolina.

If Colorado is a true tossup, that means the true battlegrounds are WI/OH/IA/VA/CO/NH. That's a much more makeable map for Romney, especially if he can get ahead in VA and stay ahead in CO. Then all he needs is Ohio, or WI/IA/NH.