Do you feel like this is 2004 all over again, but with the parties switched? (user search)
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  Do you feel like this is 2004 all over again, but with the parties switched? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Do you feel like this is 2004 all over again, but with the parties switched?  (Read 1573 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« on: October 18, 2012, 03:37:18 PM »

yes the parallels to 2004 have been noted many times. Like Bush, Obama opened up a good lead after the conventions. Like Kerry, Romney pulled even after a strong first debate and like Bush, Obama rallied for his second debate. And like 2004, the race appears to be coming down to OH with the incumbent having the advantage. It's also worth noting that today Obama's approval rating average is about the same as Bush's was on election day, and much higher than Carter's in 1980.

Of course all that is meaningless...no two elections are the same as as that cartoon noted, precedents are meant to be broken.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2012, 03:51:53 PM »

Its true that Kerry didn't pull ahead in the national avg, but he did lead in some national polls and he was able to show leads in the states including OH, as you can see from this map
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ec_graph-2012.html
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2012, 04:14:12 PM »

As I said, 2004 was also all about OH. If Kerry won OH he would have won the election, even if it was a PV/EV split. And if you look at the OH polls from mid October 2004 Kerry was actually ahead in more of than than Bush.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html

So you could say that Kerry was actually doing better than Romney as he was able to show an EV advantage, something Romney has never been able to do in either of his surges (after RNC and after Debate 1). Romney has only lead one OH poll in October and that was Gravis right after the first debate.

RE: 1980
Not really even worth discussing. Different era, different electorate, different economy, different approvals, Romney not Reagan, etc, etc. Even if Romney wins, it wont be a 1980 parallel. It will still be a 2004 parallel, except with the challenger winning, which almost happened.
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