What happens if Obama wins the Electoral College and Romney wins Popular Vote

[Eraserhead]

Start preparing for the likely 2014 bloodbath.

Will be a bloodbath one way or the other anyway.

[Wisconsin+17]

Won't happen. If Romney wins the PV - he will win the election.

[Stirring Wolf🥣🐺]

A few partisans would be upset over it [they might be louder about their being upset than the alternate scenario would result in]; overall no changes to the system.

[SPQR]

I will laugh...then I will be pissed since that means nothing will get done the next four years.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Won't happen. If Romney wins the PV - he will win the election.

Just plain wrong. Romney currently has a 7% lead in a bunch of daily (popular) polls but Obama is leading all the swing states he needs for re-election (Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada) by about 6% each.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I have an extremely amusing and very late night.

Republicans challenge the results on legal grounds that range from 'very shaky' to 'laughable'. They lose.

The talking heads go into mind-numbing (and occasionally incorrect) detail about the mechanics of the Electoral College for weeks.

There's a fair amount of talk (and a ridiculous amount of media attention) paid to the idea of abolishing the Electoral College. It all comes to naught.

Obama gets sworn in for his 2nd term.

There are small protests in the streets which the media covers as if they're more significant than they actually are.

However... the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact gets a very large boost.  It may make it past the threshold where it will go into effect in 2016. If that happens, there will be tons of wacky election-related hijinks from both parties for the next four years, including, but not limited to: a Supreme Court challenge, efforts to get states who passed it to repeal it, attempts to stack the elector selection process and to change state laws regarding faithless electors, and last but not least, semi-serious succession threats.

[Skill and Chance]

I have an extremely amusing and very late night.

Republicans challenge the results on legal grounds that range from 'very shaky' to 'laughable'. They lose.

The talking heads go into mind-numbing (and occasionally incorrect) detail about the mechanics of the Electoral College for weeks.

There's a fair amount of talk (and a ridiculous amount of media attention) paid to the idea of abolishing the Electoral College. It all comes to naught.

Obama gets sworn in for his 2nd term.

There are small protests in the streets which the media covers as if they're more significant than they actually are.

However... the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact gets a very large boost.  It may make it past the threshold where it will go into effect in 2016. If that happens, there will be tons of wacky election-related hijinks from both parties for the next four years, including, but not limited to: a Supreme Court challenge, efforts to get states who passed it to repeal it, attempts to stack the elector selection process and to change state laws regarding faithless electors, and last but not least, semi-serious succession threats.

Republicans wouldn't pass NPV after an Obama EC win/Romney PV win.  If they did, CA and other large blue states would just change state law to have automatic registration and mail ballots to every social security number in the state.  There would be nothing anyone out of state could do to stop it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Republicans wouldn't pass NPV after an Obama EC win/Romney PV win.  If they did, CA and other large blue states would just change state law to have automatic registration and mail ballots to every social security number in the state.  There would be nothing anyone out of state could do to stop it.

I mixed up my estimated levels of NPV between the two threads. XD.
I was anticipating a small boost in R support if Romney won the popular vote, but you're right, the Democrat-leaning states can easily boost turnout to levels the Republicans can't match, which pretty much removes any incentive for Rs to support NPV.

[AmericanNation]

Republicans wouldn't pass NPV after an Obama EC win/Romney PV win.  If they did, CA and other large blue states would just change state law to have automatic registration and mail ballots to every social security number in the state.  There would be nothing anyone out of state could do to stop it.

Exactly, Republicans won't move to remove a pillar of THE REPUBLIC.  If a structural change is coming it would be: 'House-district electoral votes' in the big bankrupt states like Illinois and California.     

[Skill and Chance]

Republicans wouldn't pass NPV after an Obama EC win/Romney PV win.  If they did, CA and other large blue states would just change state law to have automatic registration and mail ballots to every social security number in the state.  There would be nothing anyone out of state could do to stop it.

Exactly, Republicans won't move to remove a pillar of THE REPUBLIC.  If a structural change is coming it would be: 'House-district electoral votes' in the big bankrupt states like Illinois and California.     

Not a chance in heck they would ever go along with that unless all of the former Confederate states did the same. 

Dems can still get NPV on their own terms the next time have a wave.

[Wisconsin+17]

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If Romney wins by 7 percent in the PV, he will win in a Reagan-style blowout.

[AmericanNation]

Republicans wouldn't pass NPV after an Obama EC win/Romney PV win.  If they did, CA and other large blue states would just change state law to have automatic registration and mail ballots to every social security number in the state.  There would be nothing anyone out of state could do to stop it.

Exactly, Republicans won't move to remove a pillar of THE REPUBLIC.  If a structural change is coming it would be: 'House-district electoral votes' in the big bankrupt states like Illinois and California.     

Not a chance in heck they would ever go along with that unless all of the former Confederate states did the same. 

Dems can still get NPV on their own terms the next time have a wave.

Dems probably will have diminished power in Illinois and California (one way or another) when they go into receivership. 

[Skill and Chance]

Republicans wouldn't pass NPV after an Obama EC win/Romney PV win.  If they did, CA and other large blue states would just change state law to have automatic registration and mail ballots to every social security number in the state.  There would be nothing anyone out of state could do to stop it.

Exactly, Republicans won't move to remove a pillar of THE REPUBLIC.  If a structural change is coming it would be: 'House-district electoral votes' in the big bankrupt states like Illinois and California.     

Not a chance in heck they would ever go along with that unless all of the former Confederate states did the same. 

Dems can still get NPV on their own terms the next time have a wave.

Dems probably will have diminished power in Illinois and California (one way or another) when they go into receivership. 

What can creditors do to a state if it simply ignores its debts?  I'm curious because I honestly don't know the answer.  Obviously the next Dem trifecta would bail them out with federal funds, so why not just sit it out and wait?  Or go Huey Long on state and local taxes.  There will always be some businesses (particularly tourism in CA) that simply can't leave...   

[Dumbo]

1. Al Gore will call Romney and express sympathy.

2. Foxnews will fire Dick Morris.

[AmericanNation]

Republicans wouldn't pass NPV after an Obama EC win/Romney PV win.  If they did, CA and other large blue states would just change state law to have automatic registration and mail ballots to every social security number in the state.  There would be nothing anyone out of state could do to stop it.

Exactly, Republicans won't move to remove a pillar of THE REPUBLIC.  If a structural change is coming it would be: 'House-district electoral votes' in the big bankrupt states like Illinois and California.     

Not a chance in heck they would ever go along with that unless all of the former Confederate states did the same. 

Dems can still get NPV on their own terms the next time have a wave.

Dems probably will have diminished power in Illinois and California (one way or another) when they go into receivership. 

What can creditors do to a state if it simply ignores its debts?  I'm curious because I honestly don't know the answer.  Obviously the next Dem trifecta would bail them out with federal funds, so why not just sit it out and wait?  Or go Huey Long on state and local taxes.  There will always be some businesses (particularly tourism in CA) that simply can't leave...   

It gets real crazy real fast.  Lots of variables are at play, you would have wars going on at the political level, in the courts, in the financial community (a bond default would be quite devastating, local vs state vs federal battles, wild shifts in power/authority via several possibilities, elected officials forced to cede power to unelected administrators, etc. 

You are right that their needs to be a major disincentive in defaulting on obligations.  That's were I could see potential political restructuring in some circumstances.  A federally appointed governor with broad authority is an actual possibility.  I'd be like the State went back into territorial status. 

I could see Illinois escaping by shaping up in a hurry. California, not so much.  It isn't likely, but you could see a new SOCAL state emerge out of the process, which may well be named "Reagan".           

[gsmiro]

Not a likely scenario this year.  A more likely scenario would be a repeat of what happened in 2000.  That Romney get's the EV majority, while Obama gets popular vote.

[Stirring Wolf🥣🐺]

Not a likely scenario this year.  A more likely scenario would be a repeat of what happened in 2000.  That Romney get's the EV majority, while Obama gets popular vote.

I feel Obama is trailing safe-Romney states more than Romney is trailing safe-Obama states.  If Obama has the support to win the PV, then it'll be from the swing states, which would give him the EV too.  I don't really see Obama losing the EV while winning the PV.  I can see him still winning the EV while losing the PV though.