Romney beefing up Penn?

[Cliffy]

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/20/mitt-romney-pennsylvania-rnc_n_1993677.html?1350773512

[Ty440]

What would Romney have to get in the national popular vote to carry PA? I'm thinking at least 54%.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The fascists will not win Pennsylvania.

[Vosem]

The fascists will not win Pennsylvania.

There is, indeed, absolutely no way fascists could possibly win Pennsylvania in 2012.

[Speed of Sound]

Sounds good to me. Let him spend his money everywhere that isn't Ohio and Florida.

[J. J.]

Ryan is in Pittsburgh sometime this week.  Romney is redeploying staff here.  We have some really crappy polls showing it closing.

Faint?  Something in his internal polls? 

[DrScholl]

Republicans always think they have a chance in Pennsylvania and are always shocked when they don't win it. This year is no different.

[Adam Griffin]

Republicans always think they have a chance in Pennsylvania and are always shocked when they don't win it. This year is no different.

But they generally have enough common sense to know not to compete this close to the Election. This makes me wonder: what do they think they know?

[Ronnie]

For what it's worth, PA was just 1.6 points more Democratic than the national average in '08.  If the state hasn't trended the other way since then, Romney might be able to take it if he wins nationally by 2 points or so.

But yea, it's a long shot for Romney.  He should be putting all of his money in Ohio, since that's probably going to be the 'tipping point' state.

[J. J.]

Republicans always think they have a chance in Pennsylvania and are always shocked when they don't win it. This year is no different.

But they generally have enough common sense to know not to compete this close to the Election. This makes me wonder: what do they think they know?

The only thing that I've noticed is the very weak D ground game in Phila, as compared to 2008.  I drove between Market and Allegheny today, amd saw a grand total of one Obama sign.  I assumed that was because no one was really contesting the state.

It still could be a faint.  Look like you are revving up in PA to make Obama transfer resources here.

[RogueBeaver]

What JJ said. This is probably a decoy, and investing either the presidential or Senate race with more than decoy status would be foolhardy.

[Likely Voter]

Every recent campaign had big money and regular candidate visits for both PA and MI, usually all the awy to the end. To date Romney hasnt spent a penny on TV in PA and no campaign events, except those coinciding with fundraisers.    We will know if they are serious if this changes.

[J. J.]

Every recent campaign had big money and regular candidate visits for both PA and MI, usually all the awy to the end. To date Romney hasnt spent a penny on TV in PA and no campaign events, except those coinciding with fundraisers.    We will know if they are serious if this changes.

He has been sending in surrogates.  Ann and one of his sons were here.  John Bolton will be here on Tuesday.

[RogueBeaver]

Every recent campaign had big money and regular candidate visits for both PA and MI, usually all the awy to the end. To date Romney hasnt spent a penny on TV in PA and no campaign events, except those coinciding with fundraisers.    We will know if they are serious if this changes.

He has been sending in surrogates.  Ann and one of his sons were here.  John Bolton will be here on Tuesday.

And Ryan's coming back next Saturday. We'll know if they're serious if there's money being spent here.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Plus they might have already spent all they can spend in adwise in more important markets.  What will really be showing cockiness is if Romney starts putting some effort into states like North Dakota and Indiana to see if he can shore up the Senate races there.

[Likely Voter]

Bush sent Cheney to HI and ran ads there in Oct 2004, so far this PA dabbling looks less serious. But if he drops a couple million on TV, then maybe there is something to it.   I actually think it shows discipline on their part. They know that PA isnt going for Romney before WI and/or OH so why waste the big bucks.  I think they would only dive into PA if their polling showed OH out of reach due to early voting. I beliece there is no early in person voting in PA so a late national surge for Romney may make PA more winnable than OH.

[pepper11]

Honestly I think he is going to move in for a show of force and momentum on his side, even if he doesnt think he can win.  Perception is everything and its probably worth a million bucks to do it.

[JFK-Democrat]

The only way he is going to be able to face angry 1%er after he loses is to tell them he tried all possible avenues to get to 270.

[J. J.]

The only way he is going to be able to face angry 1%er after he loses is to tell them he tried all possible avenues to get to 270.

No, Obama will just blame the American people, like always.

[Kalimantan]

There's a lot of upside to campaigning in Penn, as Silver points out. The EV's alone mean he can lose Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Virginia or Colorado and still win the election.

Seems unlikely he could win PA and lose Ohio, but if the Obama campaign treats it as a head-fake and doesn't respond, he could steal a march on Obama there. Despite all the money they are throwing at Ohio, they can't move the needle because of an effective message from Obama. If they get in to PA before Obama, maybe they'll have more luck

[J. J.]

If PPP is correct, the needle has moved in OH. 

If F & M or Rasmussen polls PA, and shows a closing, I'll believe it.

Ryan, north of Pittsburgh, hit Obama on energy in general, and coal.

The location indicates that it might have been aimed at OH, but coal is definitely aimed at PA. 

[Lincoln Republican]

The fascists will not win Pennsylvania.

There is, indeed, absolutely no way fascists could possibly win Pennsylvania in 2012.

True, no way fascists could possibly win Pennsaylvania, but Romney and Ryan could, however.

[J. J.]

Okay, Ryan was north of Pittsburgh, which was covered by the PA media in the area, and that reached into OH south of Youngstown.  Erie stations did not cover it (Phila did).

He talked about energy, especially coal (about 1-2% of the jobs in PA are linked to it).

They are cold calling across the state.

[cinyc]

Okay, Ryan was north of Pittsburgh, which was covered by the PA media in the area, and that reached into OH south of Youngstown.  Erie stations did not cover it (Phila did).

He talked about energy, especially coal (about 1-2% of the jobs in PA are linked to it).

They are cold calling across the state.

After the PA event, Ryan held a rally in Belmont County, Ohio, south of Steubenville, where he also focused on energy, including coal.   The Pittsburgh airport where the PA rally was held is west of Pittsburgh in Moon Township, not north.

[Brittain33]

If PPP is correct, the needle has moved in OH. 

PPP showed Obama +4 before the first debate, and is now showing +1. Other polls showed Obama +8 before the first debate. I believe we all agree that Romney had a decent bounce from the first debate, including in Ohio. The question is whether you take PPP's current poll as the anchor for the current gap, to the exclusion of other polls and Charlie Cook, or whether looking at the range of polls the results show the needle has moved to something like a 3 or 4 point advantage for Obama.