Do you trust the Gallup Poll showing Romney up 7?

[milhouse24]

If Gallup is right about Romney being up 7 over Obama (52 to 45) then momentum is definitely with Romney winning the election. 

Do you think Obama's poll numbers are accurate?  Do you have faith in Obama's Likely voters?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

No, as their LV poll tends to be highly inaccurate when they're off the consensus. Nate Silver did a good piece on it.

[King]

Unless Romney is pushing 70 in Texas and within 15 in California, I can't see him up 7 nationwide with the swing state polling.

[CountryRoads]

No poll is accurate if Obama isn't winning! /end liberal hack.

[Lambsbread]

Nope!

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

No. I do, however, trust their registered voter poll showing him up 2. I think their likely voter screen is way too narrow, but the odds are there's a glimmer of truth in there - Romney is likely winning at the moment, but definitely not by Obama '08 margins.

[Oakvale]

No poll is accurate if Obama isn't winning! /end liberal hack.

Stop, idiot. The Gallup poll probably isn't accurate because it contradicts literally every single other piece of polling we have about this election.

[anvi]

A real 7 point advantage in a credible national tracking poll is going to be reflected in state by state polling.  Gallop's current margin isn't.  So, no.

[Stranger in a strange land]

A real 7 point advantage in a credible national tracking poll is going to be reflected in state by state polling.  Gallop's current margin isn't.  So, no.

This. Always trust the numbers over your gut.

[Yank2133]

A real 7 point advantage in a credible national tracking poll is going to be reflected in state by state polling.  Gallop's current margin isn't.  So, no.

Pretty much this.

If Mitt was up by 7 points we would be seeing it in the state polling......just like how we saw it with Obama in September.

[Cliffy]

I think it boils down to Gallup thinks (state of states)  the electorate will be more republican this time and turnout favoring Republicans.  Rasmussen's party Id tracker shows the same thing but he hasn't made the switch yet.  It boils down to turnout, we all know it.  Who's going to be right?  People are going to have to start changing pretty soon or lose credibility,  Tipp for sure just like they did in 08, lol. 

What's funny is you need to get d+7> turnout to have a chance.    Good luck with that!

[Joe Biden 2020]

No, I don't believe it.  It does raise an eyebrow, but I still think this race is D+1.

[J. J.]

Seven points is a bit high, but we also an increase on the RV numbers.  It does look like a bad sample, nor would be a problem with LV screen.  The days that began to jump, two field polls showed a jump.  My guess is that Romney is leading by 2-3 points.  

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't know what to think. Gallup had Obama up 55-44 in 2008 in their last poll, and he won by 7... Romney may indeed be ahead nationally but it isn't by 7 points. Probably 2-3.

[Likely Voter]

Yes. I also trust the TIPP poll showing Romney down 6.

[J. J.]

Yes. I also trust the TIPP poll showing Romney down 6.

TIPP has the same R percentage as 2008, and I believe it will be better.  They also have a huge undecided vote.  They were also off at this point in 2008.  Their late polls got it better. 

[Beet]

In my entire history of being interested in politics, only two things have given me doubt about the Gallup organization. The first is their final poll for the 1952 election where they had Adlai Stevenson surging to within a point of Eisenhower- I think they were so haunted by the 1948 surprise that they lost their nerve at the last minute. But that is long bridge under the water. The only other thing is their write up a couple weeks ago about the Household survey on unemployment, where they suggested replacing the CPS unemployment survey with their own 30-day average rolling telephone poll. That article was not only scientifically absurd, but called the unemployment rate "on face" unbelievable, in a Jack Welch-like way. They also didn't mention that their own survey uses the CPS for demographic weighting. Anyway, that's the only unprofessional thing I've ever seen come out of the Gallup organization that I know of.

[Kalimantan]

'Trust' is the wrong word, its just one data point out of many, and is factored into the average of polls. IBD is showing the same in reverse.

can't say I wouldn't rather it showed Obama +7 though.

[minionofmidas]

Evidently not. It's a complete outlier that makes no sense.

[Silent Hunter]

Evidently not. It's a complete outlier that makes no sense.

[opebo]

No poll is accurate if Obama isn't winning! /end liberal hack.

Not at all, CR.  I do agree with you that Romney is winning, and has the momentum, however I think this poll is a bit off.  Your man is ahead, I suspect by something closer to the concensus of 1-3%.  7% is after all a real blow-out, and there's not much sign of that in any other poll.

[Spanish Moss]

Romney ahead in national polling?  Sure.  By 7?  That's quite a bit of a stretch, seeing as nothing of great relevance has had on the national stage.  Crazy things can happen during election season, but that seems like a bit much.

[milhouse24]

The race is probably a tie, but it really depends on what happens in Ohio the next couple of days.  Its really odd that Obama's support in Ohio is holding up despite the Mitt-mentum everywhere else.