538 Update Thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Forecast and Now-cast are identical. This would appear to be final.

[President von Cat]

Why can't I see this final version? The one I load still has Romney winning Florida, and it says 'Last updated November 1'. What gives?

[The Mikado]

It also implies that Nate's very confident about 49 states.  Note the huge gap between the model's confidence in Florida and it's confidence in NC, it's next most shaky state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It also implies that Nate's very confident about 49 states.  Note the huge gap between the model's confidence in Florida and it's confidence in NC, it's next most shaky state.

FL and NC are actually the only two states that are between 81.8% Obama and 97.7% Romney, which is amazing.

[Adam Griffin]

Why can't I see this final version? The one I load still has Romney winning Florida, and it says 'Last updated November 1'. What gives?

(WHAT APPEARS TO BE) FINAL 538 RESULTS:


EV
Obama: 315.2
Romney: 222.8

PV
Obama: 50.9%
Romney: 48.2%

% OF VICTORY
Obama: 92.0%
Romney: 8.0%

STATE-BY-STATE CHANCES:

WA: 100.0%
CA: 100.0%
IL: 100.0%
NJ: 100.0%
NY: 100.0%
CT: 100.0%
RI: 100.0%
MA: 100.0%
VT: 100.0%
HI: 100.0%
MD: 100.0%
DC: 100.0%
ME: 99.9%
DE: 99.9%
MN: 99.8%
OR: 99.6%
NM: 99.5%
MI: 99.5%
PA: 98.8%
WI: 97.2%
NV: 94.4%
OH: 91.8%
NH: 86.2%
IA: 86.0%
CO: 81.8%
VA: 81.4%
FL: 53.1%
NC: 72.5%
MT: 97.7%
AZ: 97.9%
SC: 99.5%
IN: 99.6%
MO: 99.6%
GA: 99.8%
WV: 99.9%
MS: 99.9%
KS: 99.9%
SD: 99.9%
AK: 99.9%
UT: 100.0%
WY: 100.0%
ID: 100.0%
ND: 100.0%
NE: 100.0%
OK: 100.0%
TX: 100.0%
LA: 100.0%
AR: 100.0%
KY: 100.0%
AL: 100.0%
TN: 100.0%

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Revised incrementally, to 91.6, not sure on what basis.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Revised incrementally, to 91.6, not sure on what basis.

My guess is some national tracking poll. Every state had a slight shift for Romney.

[rosin]

Also, according to the model's MoE (±48 EVs), Romney's best performance would be a ~271-267 win after the new small revision - the previous one had a MoE on 47 EVs and would not give Romney more than (actually a little less than) 270 EVs

[President von Cat]

Thank you for posting that, AdamGriffin.

[Sasquatch]

Nate Silver knows his stuff.

50/50

[Silent Hunter]

Nate Silver knows his stuff.

50/50

He most certainly does.

[BlueSwan]

Amngst pubdits, Nate Silver is the biggest winner of the night. Unlike most others, he put his reputation on the line and he was dead right. Even picking Florida correctly (I assume) is the icing on the cake.

[Silent Hunter]

Amngst pubdits, Nate Silver is the biggest winner of the night. Unlike most others, he put his reputation on the line and he was dead right. Even picking Florida correctly (I assume) is the icing on the cake.

Allan Lichtman won bigger - he called this for Obama in March when even Silver wasn't sure. 13 Keys gets 8 popular vote winners in a row.

[BlueSwan]

Amngst pubdits, Nate Silver is the biggest winner of the night. Unlike most others, he put his reputation on the line and he was dead right. Even picking Florida correctly (I assume) is the icing on the cake.

Allan Lichtman won bigger - he called this for Obama in March when even Silver wasn't sure. 13 Keys gets 8 popular vote winners in a row.

I don't rate the ability to call an election 8 months in advance. He got lucky that no game changer appeared, that the economy didn't go bust, etc. You can make an educated guess 8 months out, but you can't make a prediction as such.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nate once again proved he's the best. He nailed all the swing States and predicted that Florida would be razor-thin as it ended up being.

His Senate model still needs improvement, however. It was relatively confident on Rehberg and very confident on Berg. The polling averages were pretty decent (Tester was leading in MT and the race was very close in SD), but "State fundamentals" were excessively republican, and massively skewed the overall prediction. On the other hand, State fundamentals pushed the prediction in the right direction in Nevada.

[Zanas]

Aren't you thinking Nate ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Aren't you thinking Nate ?

Damn!

[The Ex-Factor]

Nate once again proved he's the best. He nailed all the swing States and predicted that Florida would be razor-thin as it ended up being.

His Senate model still needs improvement, however. It was relatively confident on Rehberg and very confident on Berg. The polling averages were pretty decent (Tester was leading in MT and the race was very close in SD), but "State fundamentals" were excessively republican, and massively skewed the overall prediction. On the other hand, State fundamentals pushed the prediction in the right direction in Nevada.

Based on that, it sounds like he needs to include a variable for having a history of voting GOP but with DEM senators to account for MT and ND.