538 Update Thread

[Gass3268]

10/23/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 288.4/Romney 249.7 (Romney +2.4)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 68.1%/Romney 31.9% (Romney +2.0%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.0%/Romney 48.9% (Romney +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Wisconsin
Lean Obama: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio
Tossups: Colorado and Virginia
Lean Romney: Florida 
Likely Romney: North Carolina 

% Chance of winning each state:

Changes:
Colorado is tied 50%-50%
Virginia is 51% Obama 

Projected vote share:

Changes:
Colorado is tied 49.5-49.5

[Speed of Sound]

Can't wait to see today's update. It should show some really nice shifts.

[Ty440]

Can't wait to see today's update. It should show some really nice shifts.

[Joe Biden 2020]

10/23/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 288.4/Romney 249.7 (Romney +2.4)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 68.1%/Romney 31.9% (Romney +2.0%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.0%/Romney 48.9% (Romney +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Wisconsin
Lean Obama: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio
Tossups: Colorado and Virginia
Lean Romney: Florida 
Likely Romney: North Carolina 

% Chance of winning each state:

Changes:
Colorado is tied 50%-50%
Virginia is 51% Obama 

Projected vote share:

Changes:
Colorado is tied 49.5-49.5

I'm too lazy to do the math, but did this give Colorado to Obama or to Romney?

[Gass3268]

10/24/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 290.8/Romney 247.2 (Obama +2.4)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 71.0%/Romney 29.0% (Obama +2.9%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.2%/Romney 48.8% (Obama +0.2%)

Likely Obama: Nevada, Wisconsin
Lean Obama: Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio
Tossups: Colorado and Virginia
Lean Romney: Florida  
Likely Romney: North Carolina  

Changes:

Nevada moved from Lean Obama to Likely Obama

% Chance of winning each state:

Changes:

Obama has a 52% chance of winning Colorado

Projected vote share:

[Speed of Sound]

ka-BOOM, baby! That's a sweet day. Hopefully the trackers tomorrow will give more confidence to the lasting effect here, though.

[Gass3268]

10/25/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 294.1/Romney 243.9 (Obama +3.3)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 73.1%/Romney 26.9% (Obama +2.1%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.2%/Romney 48.7% (Obama +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Nevada (78%), Wisconsin (86%)
Lean Obama: Iowa (68%) , New Hampshire (69%), Ohio (75%)
Tossups: Colorado (O-57%) and Virginia (O-54%)
Lean Romney: Florida (65%)  
Likely Romney: North Carolina (81%)  

% Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Am I the only one who's mad at Nate for not updating the Senate forecasts regularly? It's been almost a week since the last one.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

10/24/2012


Changes:

Virginia switched to Romney, but this does not account for the Obama +5 PPP poll.

He's tweeted that he missed PPP's Va poll and Rasmussen's Az poll and so he's re-running the model.

[Gass3268]

10/24/2012


Changes:

Virginia switched to Romney, but this does not account for the Obama +5 PPP poll.

He's tweeted that he missed PPP's Va poll and Rasmussen's Az poll and so he's re-running the model.

Thanks, I'll modify my post.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Site was updated for Friday polls, Obama at 295 EV (+1.3), 74.4% (+1.3%) to win in Nov. 6 projection.

[Ty440]

Every day that passes and Romney goes down is a glorious day.

[Gass3268]

Since the end of Romney's debate bounce on October 13th Obama has increased his chance of winning has gone up by 13.3%. Obama is back to the level he was at after the convention but before the 47% video.

[DemPGH]

I like Nate, but I find that his write-ups go on and on in very verbose fashion and I find that he doesn't typically say a whole lot. But I keep a close eye on his electoral map, and also Huffingtonpost, which despite the left wing credentials has a very good and very fair one with an excellent aggregate of polls.

[President von Cat]

Every day that passes and Romney goes down is a glorious day.

And every day in which Romney continues to decline makes it all the more likely that Intrade will move towards a 70% Obama victory.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

[DemPGH]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

Look at it this way: he won in a landslide in 2008, and McConnell and Boehner have basically been given a free pass to just table everything he wants to do. The upside is that if Obama wins re-election, the GOP will have failed badly in their only objective: to unseat Obama. Not fix unemployment, not fix the economy, just unseat the President. If Obama wins and Ds hold the Senate I think they'll have to deal with him at least a little bit.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

Look at it this way: he won in a landslide in 2008, and McConnell and Boehner have basically been given a free pass to just table everything he wants to do. The upside is that if Obama wins re-election, the GOP will have failed badly in their only objective: to unseat Obama. Not fix unemployment, not fix the economy, just unseat the President. If Obama wins and Ds hold the Senate I think they'll have to deal with him at least a little bit.

That is a good point.  Like I said in the new thread i started about the lame duck status is that he should have at worst a 52-48 Senate Majority, possibly 53-47 or even 54-46 and the Democrats should gain about 10-12 seats in the House cutting into Boehner's majority.

[Ty440]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

Bush had zero in 2000, didn't stop him one bit from pursing his agenda.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

Bush had zero in 2000, didn't stop him one bit from pursing his agenda.

To be fair to Bush, I think his first term was completely altered by 9/11.  We may have still gone into Iraq, but we likely would not have gone into Afghanistan.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama had loads of "political capital" in 2008 and the Republicans still voted against everything he proposed. "Political capital" isn't a thing that really exists anymore.

[nhmagic]

Obama had loads of "political capital" in 2008 and the Republicans still voted against everything he proposed. "Political capital" isn't a thing that really exists anymore.

Damn right they did.  Would you support something so diametrically opposite to your principles just because the president has "political capital"?  Really, this question should be asked. 

If a republican came in with a landslide and had the same majority Obama did and the first item on the agenda was to eliminate the EPA.  Would you support that because you think its owed?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it me, or their Senate update today is a total joke? I don't see a single poll having been added.

Anyways, great stuff for the presidential forecast. Obama broke 75% in Ohio.

[Gass3268]

10/27/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 295.5/Romney 242.5 (Obama +.5)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 73.6%/Romney 26.9% (Romeny +.8%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.3%/Romney 48.7% (Obama +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Nevada (80%), Wisconsin (86%)
Lean Obama: Iowa (72%), New Hampshire (70%), Ohio (74%), Virginia (60%)
Tossups: Colorado (O-58%)
Lean Romney: Florida (64%) 
Likely Romney: North Carolina (82%) 

Changes: Virginia moves to Lean Obama

% Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

[Lief 🗽]

Obama had loads of "political capital" in 2008 and the Republicans still voted against everything he proposed. "Political capital" isn't a thing that really exists anymore.

Damn right they did.  Would you support something so diametrically opposite to your principles just because the president has "political capital"?  Really, this question should be asked. 

If a republican came in with a landslide and had the same majority Obama did and the first item on the agenda was to eliminate the EPA.  Would you support that because you think its owed?

Right, that's my point. The parties have become so ideologically consolidated (which in my mind is a good thing), that political capital doesn't make sense anymore. Democrats or Republicans aren't going to abandon their beliefs just because they lost the election.