538 Update Thread

[Joe Biden 2020]

That's a plausible map.  The only changes I would make are turning NH and CO Republican.  You would still have a 275-263 Obama victory.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Can we sticky this, por favor?

[Joe Biden 2020]

10/23/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 288.4/Romney 249.7 (Romney +2.4)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 68.1%/Romney 31.9% (Romney +2.0%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.0%/Romney 48.9% (Romney +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Wisconsin
Lean Obama: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio
Tossups: Colorado and Virginia
Lean Romney: Florida 
Likely Romney: North Carolina 

% Chance of winning each state:

Changes:
Colorado is tied 50%-50%
Virginia is 51% Obama 

Projected vote share:

Changes:
Colorado is tied 49.5-49.5

I'm too lazy to do the math, but did this give Colorado to Obama or to Romney?

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

Look at it this way: he won in a landslide in 2008, and McConnell and Boehner have basically been given a free pass to just table everything he wants to do. The upside is that if Obama wins re-election, the GOP will have failed badly in their only objective: to unseat Obama. Not fix unemployment, not fix the economy, just unseat the President. If Obama wins and Ds hold the Senate I think they'll have to deal with him at least a little bit.

That is a good point.  Like I said in the new thread i started about the lame duck status is that he should have at worst a 52-48 Senate Majority, possibly 53-47 or even 54-46 and the Democrats should gain about 10-12 seats in the House cutting into Boehner's majority.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

Bush had zero in 2000, didn't stop him one bit from pursing his agenda.

To be fair to Bush, I think his first term was completely altered by 9/11.  We may have still gone into Iraq, but we likely would not have gone into Afghanistan.

[Joe Biden 2020]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

[Joe Biden 2020]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

Err, sorry? Left to right/Obama v. Romney percentages is how Silver always portrays the numbers. Thus, 81.4% to 18.6% in favor of Obama. If anything, I technically misused the word "odds", but otherwise what was the typo (it indeed may well be there and I'm just missing it, not trying to be smart)?

I thought you trying to say it increased from 81.4% to 81.6%  I got you now!

[Joe Biden 2020]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

Err, sorry? Left to right/Obama v. Romney percentages is how Silver always portrays the numbers. Thus, 81.4% to 18.6% in favor of Obama. If anything, I technically misused the word "odds", but otherwise what was the typo (it indeed may well be there and I'm just missing it, not trying to be smart)?

I thought you trying to say it increased from 81.4% to 81.6%  I got you now!

Ah, very good! Sorry bout that!

Not a problem!

[Joe Biden 2020]

Nate Silver tweets:

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Sounds about right.

I don't always agree with Nate Silver, but in this instance I do.