538 Update Thread

[Lief 🗽]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

[Lief 🗽]

You can say that about most big-name poll aggregators (RCP, Pollster, TPM, Princeton Election Consortium). There's nothing special about 538 that it needs to be stickied.

[Lief 🗽]

You can say that about most big-name poll aggregators (RCP, Pollster, TPM, Princeton Election Consortium). There's nothing special about 538 that it needs to be stickied.

as a follower of his work since his Baseball Prospectus days -- the man is a gem, he is brilliant, deserves benefit of the doubt in all situations.

The guy's certainly smart and I enjoy and respect his analysis, but a simple poll average says the same thing as his complicated model with significantly less work.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama now up to 70.1% chance to win.

[Lief 🗽]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

No, 538 is the single best political forecaster in the world, and by far.

[citation needed]

[Lief 🗽]

Obama had loads of "political capital" in 2008 and the Republicans still voted against everything he proposed. "Political capital" isn't a thing that really exists anymore.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama had loads of "political capital" in 2008 and the Republicans still voted against everything he proposed. "Political capital" isn't a thing that really exists anymore.

Damn right they did.  Would you support something so diametrically opposite to your principles just because the president has "political capital"?  Really, this question should be asked. 

If a republican came in with a landslide and had the same majority Obama did and the first item on the agenda was to eliminate the EPA.  Would you support that because you think its owed?

Right, that's my point. The parties have become so ideologically consolidated (which in my mind is a good thing), that political capital doesn't make sense anymore. Democrats or Republicans aren't going to abandon their beliefs just because they lost the election.

[Lief 🗽]

I think, if anything, Obama's slight bump over the past week is a result of Democratic voters finally turning on.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama had a huge bump today for some reason, up to a 77.4% chance to win. Maybe because Gallup wasn't in today?

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, it's the SUSA poll apparently:

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Obama's overall winning percentage (77%) is basically identical to his Ohio win percentage (78%).

[Lief 🗽]

Only a 1% winning chance bump. Lame.

[Lief 🗽]

Not looking good for Mittbot.

[Lief 🗽]

Another day, another bump for the President. A slew of polls (and another day off the calendar for the challenger) shifted the % chance of victory to 80.8-19.2, Romney's lowest numbers since the 6th of October. Furthermore, the PV projection is now 50.5-48.5, sending Obama for the first time in weeks back to a full 2 point lead there. VA and CO are at ~65%, IA at 79%, OH at 80%, NV at 87%, WI 91% (and PA 96%).

What about NC? (I can't enter the site.)

80.0% Romney

[Lief 🗽]

Does anyone remember what Obama's odds were the day of the election in 2008?

[Lief 🗽]

Yup, that map is the thinking man's prediction at this point. The rakish daredevil's map is that + Obama winning North Carolina.

[Lief 🗽]

Indiana is also now Lean Dem in the Senate.

[Lief 🗽]

Nate Silver tweets:

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Sounds about right.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama now at 92.2%

So if Obama doesn't win, Nate is right up there with "Dewey Defeats Truman"

Oh god, I hope if Romney wins he does the Truman picture pose but with an iPhone showing 538.

[Lief 🗽]

Well the shift in the national polls has reduced a lot of the uncertainty. Before today (and arguably yesterday as well, IMO), there was a clear gap between the national polls (showing about a tie) and the state polls (which were more representative of Obama +2 or so). Now the national polls have shifted to match the state polls and that contradiction no longer exists.

That's my explanation anyway.