538 Update Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

No, 538 is the single best political forecaster in the world, and by far.

Sticky please.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

No, 538 is the single best political forecaster in the world, and by far.

[citation needed]

Would I need a citation if I said the sky is blue?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Am I the only one who's mad at Nate for not updating the Senate forecasts regularly? It's been almost a week since the last one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it me, or their Senate update today is a total joke? I don't see a single poll having been added.

Anyways, great stuff for the presidential forecast. Obama broke 75% in Ohio.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it's the SUSA poll apparently:

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Obama's overall winning percentage (77%) is basically identical to his Ohio win percentage (78%).

Even closer: actually, it's 77.4% and 77.6%.Obama's margin in Ohio is up at 2.4 from 2.1 yesterday, a pretty sharp improvement (the PPP poll only added 0.1 to it, for example). On the other hand, Obama's national margin is also up sharply, to 1.9 from 1.5 points. That explains why Romney's probability to lose the electoral college while winning the PV declined significantly while Obama's was slightly up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, he may hit 80% tomorrow.

He may, but only if there are even better polls coming for Obama tomorrow. Notice that even the now-cast is still under 80%.

Still, very encouraging at this stage.

And Gass, PA and NM are over 90% actually.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, he may hit 80% tomorrow.

He may, but only if there are even better polls coming for Obama tomorrow. Notice that even the now-cast is still under 80%.

Still, very encouraging at this stage.

And Gass, PA and NM are over 90% actually.

NM was at 90%, but thanks for the heads up on PA

The only states that aren't outside of the 95% confidence interval (less than 97.5% odds for both candidates) are NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, VA, NC, FL, PA, NH, plus ME-02 and NE-02.Those districts are probably just underpolled, so we really only need to talk about those 10 states.

Also, seeing as we are only a week from election day, the now cast and the election projection are pretty close.

A 95% probability already means the State is within the 95% interval. If the model gives Romney a 5% chance to win, that means there is also 5% chances that Obama wins by more than what the margin of error indicates.

PA is at 95.4% so it's safe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Finally OH and WI break 80% and 90%, respectively.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder if Obama's record odds (87.1%) will be beaten come Nov 6. The now-cast is already at 83%...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yup, that map is the thinking man's prediction at this point. The rakish daredevil's map is that + Obama winning North Carolina.

Yeah. I'd say Obama's best-case scenario at this point is winning every State he's favored + FL and NC. Romney's is winning the States where he's favored + CO, VA, IA and NH.

OH and WI might not be completely lost, but they would require a systematic bias in State polls + massive GOP enthusiasm gap + late momentum for Romney. Not exactly the kind of combo you'd like to bet on.

[Antonio the Sixth]

With a new update tonight, Obama is at 305.3 EVs, 83.7% odds, and a 2.2 pts margin of victory.

This is looking VERY good.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, Indiana (logically) turned blue in the Senate map!

Montana is pretty weird: Rehberg is considered as a 2:1 favorite merely on strength of the "state fundamentals", even though the adjusted polling average now gives Tester a 2-point lead. This is a shaky situation for the model...

[Antonio the Sixth]

This late Obama bump is awesome news, but I don't exactly get what prompted it. Did we get a streak of great polls for Obama today?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, the closing of the national-State poll gap (in the latter's favor) is a pretty big deal at this point. Anyways, that's good to take. If this map is the one we'll see on Election Night, things look really awesome.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nate once again proved he's the best. He nailed all the swing States and predicted that Florida would be razor-thin as it ended up being.

His Senate model still needs improvement, however. It was relatively confident on Rehberg and very confident on Berg. The polling averages were pretty decent (Tester was leading in MT and the race was very close in SD), but "State fundamentals" were excessively republican, and massively skewed the overall prediction. On the other hand, State fundamentals pushed the prediction in the right direction in Nevada.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Aren't you thinking Nate ?

Damn!