538 Update Thread

[Gass3268]

I figured that if Intrade has a thread and map, 538 should as well.

10/21/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 288.0/Romney 250.0
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 67.6%/Romney 32.4%
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.0/Romney 48.9%

Tossups: Colorado and Virginia

% Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

I'll do daily updates here

[Gass3268]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

In Nate we trust....

Exactly...

He predicted 49 states correctly in 2008, only getting Indiana wrong. Also he was  33/33 and 32/34 for Senate seats in 2008 and 2010 respectively, getting only Colorado and Nevada wrong in 2010. He's been right 97.4% of the time!

[Gass3268]

10/22/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 289.7/Romney 248.3 (Obama +1.97)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 69.3%/Romney 30.7% (Obama +1.7%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.1%/Romney 48.8% (Obama +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Wisconsin
Lean Obama: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio
Tossups: Colorado and Virginia
Lean Romney: Florida 
Likely Romney: North Carolina 

% Chance of winning each state:

Changes:
Virginia is tied 50%-50%
Wisconsin moved into the 80% range

Projected vote share:

Changes:
Virginia is now tied 49.6-49.6

[Gass3268]

Looks like Nate did a post debate update, changes are from yesterday's numbers:

10/22/2012 - Part Deux

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 290.7/Romney 247.3 (Obama +2.97)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 70.1%/Romney 29.9% (Obama +2.5%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.1%/Romney 48.8% (Obama +0.1%)

Not going to update the map, as I don't think there were any changes

[Gass3268]

10/23/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 288.4/Romney 249.7 (Romney +2.4)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 68.1%/Romney 31.9% (Romney +2.0%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.0%/Romney 48.9% (Romney +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Wisconsin
Lean Obama: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio
Tossups: Colorado and Virginia
Lean Romney: Florida 
Likely Romney: North Carolina 

% Chance of winning each state:

Changes:
Colorado is tied 50%-50%
Virginia is 51% Obama 

Projected vote share:

Changes:
Colorado is tied 49.5-49.5

[Gass3268]

10/24/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 290.8/Romney 247.2 (Obama +2.4)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 71.0%/Romney 29.0% (Obama +2.9%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.2%/Romney 48.8% (Obama +0.2%)

Likely Obama: Nevada, Wisconsin
Lean Obama: Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio
Tossups: Colorado and Virginia
Lean Romney: Florida  
Likely Romney: North Carolina  

Changes:

Nevada moved from Lean Obama to Likely Obama

% Chance of winning each state:

Changes:

Obama has a 52% chance of winning Colorado

Projected vote share:

[Gass3268]

10/25/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 294.1/Romney 243.9 (Obama +3.3)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 73.1%/Romney 26.9% (Obama +2.1%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.2%/Romney 48.7% (Obama +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Nevada (78%), Wisconsin (86%)
Lean Obama: Iowa (68%) , New Hampshire (69%), Ohio (75%)
Tossups: Colorado (O-57%) and Virginia (O-54%)
Lean Romney: Florida (65%)  
Likely Romney: North Carolina (81%)  

% Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

[Gass3268]

10/24/2012


Changes:

Virginia switched to Romney, but this does not account for the Obama +5 PPP poll.

He's tweeted that he missed PPP's Va poll and Rasmussen's Az poll and so he's re-running the model.

Thanks, I'll modify my post.

[Gass3268]

Since the end of Romney's debate bounce on October 13th Obama has increased his chance of winning has gone up by 13.3%. Obama is back to the level he was at after the convention but before the 47% video.

[Gass3268]

10/27/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 295.5/Romney 242.5 (Obama +.5)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 73.6%/Romney 26.9% (Romeny +.8%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.3%/Romney 48.7% (Obama +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Nevada (80%), Wisconsin (86%)
Lean Obama: Iowa (72%), New Hampshire (70%), Ohio (74%), Virginia (60%)
Tossups: Colorado (O-58%)
Lean Romney: Florida (64%) 
Likely Romney: North Carolina (82%) 

Changes: Virginia moves to Lean Obama

% Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

[Gass3268]

10/28/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 296.6/Romney 241.4 (Obama +1.1)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 73.6%/Romney 26.9% (Obama +1.0%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.4%/Romney 48.7% (Obama +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Nevada (80%), Wisconsin (87%)
Lean Obama: Iowa (73%), New Hampshire (72%), Ohio (75%), Virginia (60%)
Tossups: Colorado (O-58%)
Lean Romney: Florida (62%)  
Likely Romney: North Carolina (82%)  

 % Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

[Gass3268]

10/29/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 294.6/Romney 243.4 (Romney +2)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 72.9%/Romney 27.1% (Romney +0.7%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.4%/Romney 48.8% (Romney +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Nevada (80%), Wisconsin (87%)
Lean Obama: Iowa (71%), New Hampshire (70%), Ohio (73%), 
Tossups: Colorado (O-55%), Virginia (O-58%)
Lean Romney: Florida (65%)  
Likely Romney: North Carolina (81%)

Change: Virginia moved from Lean Obama to Toss Up  

 % Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

[Gass3268]

Decent day for Romney, but there really wasn't a lot of polling released today. I would guess we'll see less tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

10/31/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 299.0/Romney 243.4 (Obama +4.4)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 72.9%/Romney 22.6% (Obama +4.5%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.4%/Romney 48.5% (Obama Margin +0.3%)

Likely Obama: Nevada (83%), Ohio (78%), Wisconsin (88%)
Lean Obama: Colorado (61%), Iowa (74%), New Hampshire (75%), Virginia (58%)  
Tossups: Florida (R-59%)
Lean Romney:
Likely Romney: North Carolina (82%)

Change:

Colorado moved from Tossup to Lean Obama
Florida moved from Lean Romney to Tossup
Ohio moved from from Lean Obama to Likely Obama
Virginia moved from Tossup to Lean Obama

 % Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

[Gass3268]

Yeah, he may hit 80% tomorrow.

He may, but only if there are even better polls coming for Obama tomorrow. Notice that even the now-cast is still under 80%.

Still, very encouraging at this stage.

And Gass, PA and NM are over 90% actually.

NM was at 90%, but thanks for the heads up on PA

[Gass3268]

10/1/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 300.4/Romney 243.4 (Obama +2.8 EC's)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 79%/Romney 21% (Obama +1.8%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.5%/Romney 48.2% (Obama Margin +0.2%)

Likely Obama: Iowa (79%), Nevada (87%), New Hampshire (78%) Ohio (80%),
Lean Obama: Colorado (64%), Virginia (66%)  
Tossups: Florida (R-55%)
Lean Romney:
Likely Romney: North Carolina (80%)

Change:

Iowa moved from Lean Obama to Likely Obama
New Hampshire moved from Lean Obama to Likely Obama
Wisconsin moved from Likely Obama to Safe Obama

 % Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

[Gass3268]

Obama has gone up by 30% since mid-October