538 Update Thread

[Adam Griffin]

Nate Silver has stated before that if any candidate's percentage to win in a particular state is below 60%, then the state would basically be classified as a tossup in his model. Comparatively, if a candidate has a 60% or more chance, then the state can be classified as 'leaning'. Today in the 538, we saw the following:

1) Colorado shifted from toss-up (~58%) to lean Obama (60.7%).

2) Virginia shifted from toss-up (~59%) to lean Obama (61.8%).

3) Florida shifted from lean Romney (63%) to toss-up (59.3%).

Another observation: Obama's chances in Nevada moved above 80% again today, putting it on par with Romney's chances of winning North Carolina.

[Adam Griffin]

(WHAT APPEARS TO BE) FINAL 538 RESULTS:


EV
Obama: 315.2
Romney: 222.8

PV
Obama: 50.9%
Romney: 48.2%

% OF VICTORY
Obama: 92.0%
Romney: 8.0%

STATE-BY-STATE CHANCES:

WA: 100.0%
CA: 100.0%
IL: 100.0%
NJ: 100.0%
NY: 100.0%
CT: 100.0%
RI: 100.0%
MA: 100.0%
VT: 100.0%
HI: 100.0%
MD: 100.0%
DC: 100.0%
ME: 99.9%
DE: 99.9%
MN: 99.8%
OR: 99.6%
NM: 99.5%
MI: 99.5%
PA: 98.8%
WI: 97.2%
NV: 94.4%
OH: 91.8%
NH: 86.2%
IA: 86.0%
CO: 81.8%
VA: 81.4%
FL: 53.1%
NC: 72.5%
MT: 97.7%
AZ: 97.9%
SC: 99.5%
IN: 99.6%
MO: 99.6%
GA: 99.8%
WV: 99.9%
MS: 99.9%
KS: 99.9%
SD: 99.9%
AK: 99.9%
UT: 100.0%
WY: 100.0%
ID: 100.0%
ND: 100.0%
NE: 100.0%
OK: 100.0%
TX: 100.0%
LA: 100.0%
AR: 100.0%
KY: 100.0%
AL: 100.0%
TN: 100.0%

[Adam Griffin]

Why can't I see this final version? The one I load still has Romney winning Florida, and it says 'Last updated November 1'. What gives?

(WHAT APPEARS TO BE) FINAL 538 RESULTS:


EV
Obama: 315.2
Romney: 222.8

PV
Obama: 50.9%
Romney: 48.2%

% OF VICTORY
Obama: 92.0%
Romney: 8.0%

STATE-BY-STATE CHANCES:

WA: 100.0%
CA: 100.0%
IL: 100.0%
NJ: 100.0%
NY: 100.0%
CT: 100.0%
RI: 100.0%
MA: 100.0%
VT: 100.0%
HI: 100.0%
MD: 100.0%
DC: 100.0%
ME: 99.9%
DE: 99.9%
MN: 99.8%
OR: 99.6%
NM: 99.5%
MI: 99.5%
PA: 98.8%
WI: 97.2%
NV: 94.4%
OH: 91.8%
NH: 86.2%
IA: 86.0%
CO: 81.8%
VA: 81.4%
FL: 53.1%
NC: 72.5%
MT: 97.7%
AZ: 97.9%
SC: 99.5%
IN: 99.6%
MO: 99.6%
GA: 99.8%
WV: 99.9%
MS: 99.9%
KS: 99.9%
SD: 99.9%
AK: 99.9%
UT: 100.0%
WY: 100.0%
ID: 100.0%
ND: 100.0%
NE: 100.0%
OK: 100.0%
TX: 100.0%
LA: 100.0%
AR: 100.0%
KY: 100.0%
AL: 100.0%
TN: 100.0%