538 Update Thread

[DemPGH]

I like Nate, but I find that his write-ups go on and on in very verbose fashion and I find that he doesn't typically say a whole lot. But I keep a close eye on his electoral map, and also Huffingtonpost, which despite the left wing credentials has a very good and very fair one with an excellent aggregate of polls.

[DemPGH]

I'm still having a hard time envisioning Obama getting anything over 280 EV's.  I do think and hope he'll win, but I am far from certain.  If he does win, he will have absolutely no political capital to spend unlike the little Bush had in 2004 or especially after Clinton had in 1996.  He will be a lame duck from the day he starts his second term.

Look at it this way: he won in a landslide in 2008, and McConnell and Boehner have basically been given a free pass to just table everything he wants to do. The upside is that if Obama wins re-election, the GOP will have failed badly in their only objective: to unseat Obama. Not fix unemployment, not fix the economy, just unseat the President. If Obama wins and Ds hold the Senate I think they'll have to deal with him at least a little bit.

[DemPGH]

O now at 80.8% national and 303 EVs and Nate may have darkened a couple of the blue ones although not sure. He has more shades than most Looks pretty good there.

[DemPGH]

I know it's Senate, but the strong possibility of Mourdock, Akin, and S. Brown losing is super awesome. I'm not sure why MA has not completely rejected Brown: pro big business and comes off to me as a real arrogant jerk. But it will be interesting to see what Nate does with the Presidential by Monday - Obama has been creeping up slowly but steadily.

[DemPGH]

Man, I'm just trying to be realistic because there's so much at stake (like, I actually care who sits on the Supreme Court!), but I think 303 is a very, very real possibility for Obama. FL would be beyond sweet - I hear that ground op is kicking butt. Still, waves and waves of rural folks tomorrow to offset will be tough.