Maine CD 2

[Eraserhead]

Does Romney actually have a shot at it? Would you say he has a better shot at winning it than Obama does at winning NE 2 this time?

[Mister Twister]

A recent poll showed Romney leading there

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/poll-romney-leads-obama-in-maine-congressional-district-138207.html

[J. J.]

Interesting.  That was off my radar. 

[Maxwell]

This would only come up if Obama was in trouble.

Looks like Obama is in serious sh**t.

[Lief 🗽]

That poll also shows Obama only winning the state overall 48-44. No.

[cavalcade]

I heard an R SuperPAC plans to spend there, but it sounds like a weird strategy.

Edit: OK, Rasmussen and PPP had the state at Obama +14 in late September, when Obama was up by 3-4 nationally.  So now, post-debate, Maine could be at Obama +10.  And that poll is probably off, but it shows ME-2 as 9 points more R than the state as a whole.  So it's not crazy that Romney could win it, it's just unlikely and probably not worth spending the money.

[Lambsbread]

Bad strategy is bad.

[Erc]

As far as strategy goes...as I outlined elsewhere, unless you think that winning ME CD2 is easier than winning New Hampshire, there's really only one scenario where it helps, this really odd 269-269 tie which would be an Obama win without ME CD2:

[tmthforu94]

It's unfortunate that Texas or another R state could snag a vote from Minnesota or another D state. That way, this map would be a 269-269 tie, sending it to the House.

[Joe Biden 2020]

John King on CNN confirmed earlier that Romney is opening a campaign office in Portland, ME thinking they have a shot at picking off what could be a vital EV.

[J. J.]

How much of it is in an NH media market?  He might figure that, since he's in NH, he might as well give this a shot. 

[Devils30]

Just dont see it. Was 55-43 in 2008 and it only goes red if NH already has by about 4 or 5.

[Mister Twister]

Just dont see it. Was 55-43 in 2008 and it only goes red if NH already has by about 4 or 5.

ME CD-2 was only 2 points more Dem than NH in 2008 so if NH is a dead heat right now, of course  ME CD-2 will be close now too

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

ME-2 isn't just New Hampshire. The rural areas of NH are the most Democratic; the GOP base is in Boston exurbia in the southern part of the state. ME-2 will go to Obama, but Romney can bluff here and make it somewhat close.

[cinyc]

How much of it is in an NH media market?  He might figure that, since he's in NH, he might as well give this a shot. 

New Hampshire doesn't have a TV market.  It is split between 3 out-of-state TV markets, Boston, Burlington, VT and Portland, ME.  Obama is on the air in all three markets.  Until recently, Romney was only up in Boston, though he may have entered the other two markets in recent weeks.  Even if Romney goes up in Portland, he'd really need to advertise in Bangor and Presque Isle to reach all of ME-02.

[J. J.]

How much of it is in an NH media market?  He might figure that, since he's in NH, he might as well give this a shot. 

New Hampshire doesn't have a TV market.  It is split between 3 out-of-state TV markets, Boston, Burlington, VT and Portland, ME.  Obama is on the air in all three markets.  Until recently, Romney was only up in Boston, though he may have entered the other two markets in recent weeks.  Even if Romney goes up in Portland, he'd really need to advertise in Bangor and Presque Isle to reach all of ME-02.

He doesn't to real all, but enough. 

[Likely Voter]

The four Romney tie scenarios have him winning NV and/or WI while losing other easier to win states so I think it is pretty unlikely. However there may be another reason to contest ME-2, which is to actually force a tie.

The scenario starts with Obama holding NV+WI+NH and Romney winning NC+FL+CO+IA+OH. But even though Romney was able to break the Obama firewall and pick up OH, he ends up losing VA (due to higher than expected Latino turnout and/or Virgil Goode spoiler or NOVA gender gap, etc). All of that is plausible and it gives Obama 270. If Romney campaigns for ME-2 he can force the tie and then win in the House.
 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

ME-02 is expendable for Obama for his most likely path to victory: PA+OH+NV+WI

[Badger]

Unnecessary. 269 is a win for Romney, and I'm not aware of any likel scnario that gets romney to 268.