Maryland as Bush Country?

[The Vorlon]

Md went dem with southern candidate (Gore, Clinton, Carter) but went rep with guys like Dukakis or Mondale (so Kerry can loose)

Mason Dixon had Kerry up 11 points.

You'll make a lot more money betting on Mason-Dixon than you will  on "Gonzales Marketing & Research"

Yeah, the name of that firm who did the poll was a little odd to me. I had never heard of them before.

Gonzales does a lot of polling in Maryland.  I've usually seen them refered to as "Gonzales-Arscott"; I'm not sure if they have changed their name.

Actually, the principle of the firm used to be the President of Mason-Dixon...

An inside joke.. that nobody got....

As comedians say... if you need to explain the joke, get another joke....

[dunn]

Md went dem with southern candidate (Gore, Clinton, Carter) but went rep with guys like Dukakis or Mondale (so Kerry can loose)

Mason Dixon had Kerry up 11 points.

You'll make a lot more money betting on Mason-Dixon than you will  on "Gonzales Marketing & Research"

Yeah, the name of that firm who did the poll was a little odd to me. I had never heard of them before.

Gonzales does a lot of polling in Maryland.  I've usually seen them refered to as "Gonzales-Arscott"; I'm not sure if they have changed their name.

Actually, the principle of the firm used to be the President of Mason-Dixon...

An inside joke.. that nobody got....

As comedians say... if you need to explain the joke, get another joke....

Patrick E. Gonzales was formerly president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Strategy, Inc.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Md went dem with southern candidate (Gore, Clinton, Carter) but went rep with guys like Dukakis or Mondale (so Kerry can loose)

The Northeast Corridor has become much more liberal in the last 12 years.  PG, Monty, Baltimore City/County, up through the Wilmington 'burbs, are the bulk of the population, and have become solid Dem territory.  Bush only takes this state in a landslide.

Hardly.  before Clinton you could find people openly willing to discuss things like socialized medicine and the like in the NE corridor.  Not that I'm complaining.  It's not that they have become more liberal, it's that the DLC was fairly successful in the early and mid 90s in converting the Dems to a more conservative party.  Now they appear set to be dragged the other way.  Meanwhile the GOP has become more liberal, big deficit spenders and big government intrusion.  The populace isn't shifting, the parties are.

Your hypothesis (which is a very good one, btw) will be tested this November.  If you are correct, Bush will win New Jersey.

Regardless of he's right or not, Bush could never win New Jersey because of social issues. No Republican to the right of Christie Todd Whitman stands a chance there.

I didn't get into this stuff until about when McGreevy was elected, what exactly did she stand for?

she was known as the most pro-choice and anti-gun Republican elected to a statewide position.

This is exasperating!  We have 200 billion dollars invested in the Iraq project which must be seen through, we've pissed off most of the islamic world to the extent that we have freaking color codes telling us whether to expect to have to remove our belts in airports, we have a fledgling economic recovery that expects a business-friendly victor in November, and my stocks are on the line.  And you people are worried about abortion rights, gun control, and gay marriage!  Grow up.  I find it incredible any sane adult would give a damn either way about what a candidate says about these trivial issues, when our economic security lies in the balance.  Kerry is a good and decent man.  I've never claimed otherwise, but he's not the one.  I guess I was wrong about there being other logical voters out there.

Our Armies, Navies, Universities, and public schools should be second to none.  Take as much as you need from my paycheck to make it so.  But we need to get past these wedge issues, as a nation, or we're doomed to be a second-rate empire till China knocks us off our perch.  

Well Bush seems to think so, otherwise he wouldn't be whining so much about gay marriage. But gay marriage won't help him one iota in New Jersey. Also, most of what you mentioned are Bush's weaknesses.

The bottom line though, is Gore won NJ by 16 points, and since Kerry is a far better fit for NJ than Gore was, Bush is not going to get the swing neccesary. I'd be suprised if he gets any swing at all, since pretty much all Gore voters hate Bush now and don't even consider him legitimate.

[opebo]

Maryland is solid Dem mostly for racial reasons, but also because the white upper middle class is often a bit confused about where its interests lie.

[12th Doctor]

I don't think Bush CAN win in Maryland, but this is encouraging news for the condition of the areas AROUND Maryland (Delaware, Southern PA, West Virginia, Northern Virginia).

[angus]

Maryland is solid Dem mostly for racial reasons, but also because the white upper middle class is often a bit confused about where its interests lie.

true, and true.  this was the point I was trying to make to setyourselfonfire.  your wording is so much more succinct.

[ian]

MS actually said that they would vote more for a Dem than Bush?!?!  (in Feb).  Where can I find this poll.

[MN-Troy]

Maryland was one of Al Gore's best states in 2002. I don't see Maryland voting for Bush in 04.

~Good Day~

[Rococo4]

Maryland was one of Al Gore's best states in 2002. I don't see Maryland voting for Bush in 04.

~Good Day~

It would be great, but there is no shot Maryland goes Bush unless it is 45-49 state landslide.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

alright, just crunched the numbers and I see that this poll doesn't show anything out of the ordinary.

since undecideds break 2:1 against the incumbent, that means Kerry should get an additional 6 points. He's got 48% now, so he'll be up to 54%. Within the MoE of Gore's 56%.

So what we have here is a poll that shows Kerry is clearly winning, and Bush's disapproval is "only" 47%. Not exactly "Bush country"

[Beet]

Baltimore only cast 9% of the vote in the 2000 election, and the combined 2 biggest liberal counties in the DC suburbs cast another 27%... so don't underestimate the fluidity of this state. The bellwhether counties tend to be Howard county, and Baltimore county (not city). But I'm expecting Kerry to win.

If Bush wins I'm moving to Rhode Island...

[Beet]

Maryland is solid Dem mostly for racial reasons, but also because the white upper middle class is often a bit confused about where its interests lie.

true, and true.  this was the point I was trying to make to setyourselfonfire.  your wording is so much more succinct.

Oh, that attitude is a little patronizing isn't it? The upper middle class here lives in an economy supported by the government. Our unemployment rate during the recession was way below the national average. The defense contractors part is in Virginia though, as was pointed out before.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MS actually said that they would vote more for a Dem than Bush?!?!  (in Feb).  Where can I find this poll.

I've just checked and I think it was done in December, not Feb. (but that would be when I found out about it).

It was by AP and had Bush on 49%, Certain to vote Democrat on 29% and probably voting Democrat on 20%

I'd expect Bush's numbers to have risen in MS since then though.
----

BTW Bush leads 54-35 in Texas. Less than I had assumed... But still very comfertable.

[nclib]

I would strongly doubt that Bush will win Maryland, barring a landslide victory.

Maryland was the only state to give Gore a greater margin of victory than Clinton (1996).