Maryland as Bush Country?

[angus]

Md went dem with southern candidate (Gore, Clinton, Carter) but went rep with guys like Dukakis or Mondale (so Kerry can loose)

The Northeast Corridor has become much more liberal in the last 12 years.  PG, Monty, Baltimore City/County, up through the Wilmington 'burbs, are the bulk of the population, and have become solid Dem territory.  Bush only takes this state in a landslide.

Hardly.  before Clinton you could find people openly willing to discuss things like socialized medicine and the like in the NE corridor.  Not that I'm complaining.  It's not that they have become more liberal, it's that the DLC was fairly successful in the early and mid 90s in converting the Dems to a more conservative party.  Now they appear set to be dragged the other way.  Meanwhile the GOP has become more liberal, big deficit spenders and big government intrusion.  The populace isn't shifting, the parties are.

[angus]

45 percent is hardly amazing approval, and I don't think it matters if people approve of him or not. A good amount won't vote for him under any circumstances, they will vote for the Democrat no matter what. Anyone who thinks Bush has a snowball's chance in hell of winning Maryland needs to lay off the weed.

In the end, you're right.  But it's certainly not a matter of liberal vs. conservative.  It's a combination of the fact that Baltimore is the 'hood, and a plethora of wedge issues, and a general disdain of GWB in urbanity.

[angus]

Why wouldn't Bush win Maryland?

Maryland is rich, suburban, and not particularly liberal on economic issues. That's one state you'd think would be more Republican than it is.

The Democrats ought to have no trouble in states like Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, or Iowa, but for some reason they all ranked far behind Maryland in 2000. In other words, states that should be Democratic trended Republican in 2000 - and vice versa.

The area of Maryland that I live in, which is the rich suburban part, is rather economically liberal.  There are a lot of federal government employees who live here, and they usually want to keep federal spending up.

The town of 75000 where I live is the same way.  Mostly federal employees who know what butters their bread.  But ask 'em about politics, and they'll begin to diatribe about the most trivial matters, and not about economics.

[angus]

Md went dem with southern candidate (Gore, Clinton, Carter) but went rep with guys like Dukakis or Mondale (so Kerry can loose)

The Northeast Corridor has become much more liberal in the last 12 years.  PG, Monty, Baltimore City/County, up through the Wilmington 'burbs, are the bulk of the population, and have become solid Dem territory.  Bush only takes this state in a landslide.

Hardly.  before Clinton you could find people openly willing to discuss things like socialized medicine and the like in the NE corridor.  Not that I'm complaining.  It's not that they have become more liberal, it's that the DLC was fairly successful in the early and mid 90s in converting the Dems to a more conservative party.  Now they appear set to be dragged the other way.  Meanwhile the GOP has become more liberal, big deficit spenders and big government intrusion.  The populace isn't shifting, the parties are.

Your hypothesis (which is a very good one, btw) will be tested this November.  If you are correct, Bush will win New Jersey.

Regardless of he's right or not, Bush could never win New Jersey because of social issues. No Republican to the right of Christie Todd Whitman stands a chance there.

I didn't get into this stuff until about when McGreevy was elected, what exactly did she stand for?

she was known as the most pro-choice and anti-gun Republican elected to a statewide position.

This is exasperating!  We have 200 billion dollars invested in the Iraq project which must be seen through, we've pissed off most of the islamic world to the extent that we have freaking color codes telling us whether to expect to have to remove our belts in airports, we have a fledgling economic recovery that expects a business-friendly victor in November, and my stocks are on the line.  And you people are worried about abortion rights, gun control, and gay marriage!  Grow up.  I find it incredible any sane adult would give a damn either way about what a candidate says about these trivial issues, when our economic security lies in the balance.  Kerry is a good and decent man.  I've never claimed otherwise, but he's not the one.  I guess I was wrong about there being other logical voters out there.

Our Armies, Navies, Universities, and public schools should be second to none.  Take as much as you need from my paycheck to make it so.  But we need to get past these wedge issues, as a nation, or we're doomed to be a second-rate empire till China knocks us off our perch.  

[angus]

Maryland is solid Dem mostly for racial reasons, but also because the white upper middle class is often a bit confused about where its interests lie.

true, and true.  this was the point I was trying to make to setyourselfonfire.  your wording is so much more succinct.