Daily Beast: Romney's Surge

[Cliffy]

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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/25/romney-s-surge.html

[heatmaster]

I think Romney is going to take Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Wisconsin: my analysis is supported by the superb ground game Romney has invested in Wisconsin and because Pennsylvania has never been Obama friendly and only went his way in 2008, because of the national trend and his good ground game there, and Wisconsin has a history of being a squeaker, look in 2000 and 2004, in 2008 Obama took Wisconsin, because Republicans were in the dog house, I see 2012 as possibly 1980 all over again, but on a smaller scale.

[NHI]

I think Romney is going to take Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Wisconsin: my analysis is supported by the superb ground game Romney has invested in Wisconsin and because Pennsylvania has never been Obama friendly and only went his way in 2008, because of the national trend and his good ground game there, and Wisconsin has a history of being a squeaker, look in 2000 and 2004, in 2008 Obama took Wisconsin, because Republicans were in the dog house, I see 2012 as possibly 1980 all over again, but on a smaller scale.

[Cliffy]

Well you must be an idiot then. Be prepared to be personally insulted.  

Oh ignore national polls now, PPP, Marist and SUSA are the best pollsters in the history of pollsters, umm pretty much anyone indicating that the turnout will be better than 08 are the schiz...

[ajb]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/25/romney-s-surge.html

Gotta love this: "Obama was up 10 in Ohio two weeks ago" -- the last poll with Obama up 10 in OH that I can find was Q-Pac 9/18-24.

" Today, that margin has closed to 3 in the latest SurveyUSA poll. Meanwhile, the latest Suffolk (PDF) poll has Ohio tied (at 47) and Rasmussen also has a tie (at 48)."

Two weeks ago, Obama was up in SUSA -- by the same three points he's up by today. He was up by only one point the week before. Suffolk doesn't seem to have done another OH poll since the conventions, and Rasmussen was Obama +1 in the three previous October Ohio polls they've done. So the polls Douglas Schoen cites in this article show precisely zero shift towards Romney in Ohio.
Oh, and Douglas Schoen?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Schoen

[Eraserhead]

I think Romney is going to take Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Wisconsin: my analysis is supported by the superb ground game Romney has invested in Wisconsin and because Pennsylvania has never been Obama friendly and only went his way in 2008, because of the national trend and his good ground game there, and Wisconsin has a history of being a squeaker, look in 2000 and 2004, in 2008 Obama took Wisconsin, because Republicans were in the dog house, I see 2012 as possibly 1980 all over again, but on a smaller scale.

You guys are in for one hell of a disappointing night.

[J. J.]

I think Romney is going to take Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Wisconsin: my analysis is supported by the superb ground game Romney has invested in Wisconsin and because Pennsylvania has never been Obama friendly and only went his way in 2008, because of the national trend and his good ground game there, and Wisconsin has a history of being a squeaker, look in 2000 and 2004, in 2008 Obama took Wisconsin, because Republicans were in the dog house, I see 2012 as possibly 1980 all over again, but on a smaller scale.

The D's are not deploying in PA like 2008.  The R's are more active, but nothing spectacular.

Something to consider:

Ohio R's developed a good ground game to defeat some union legislation.  Wisconsin had the recalls and the R's developed a good ground game there.  The D's in those states are in the fight of their political lives.  

[Cliffy]

Reality is ignored here, the very fabric of the One's Illusion will be rent if you mention that kinda heresy around here..... how dare you insinuate that skewed turnout polls have dramatically moved toward romney while moving more turnout skewed..... Blasphemy.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/25/romney-s-surge.html

Gotta love this: "Obama was up 10 in Ohio two weeks ago" -- the last poll with Obama up 10 in OH that I can find was Q-Pac 9/18-24.

" Today, that margin has closed to 3 in the latest SurveyUSA poll. Meanwhile, the latest Suffolk (PDF) poll has Ohio tied (at 47) and Rasmussen also has a tie (at 48)."

Two weeks ago, Obama was up in SUSA -- by the same three points he's up by today. He was up by only one point the week before. Suffolk doesn't seem to have done another OH poll since the conventions, and Rasmussen was Obama +1 in the three previous October Ohio polls they've done. So the polls Douglas Schoen cites in this article show precisely zero shift towards Romney in Ohio.
Oh, and Douglas Schoen?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Schoen

[Lincoln Republican]

I think Romney is going to take Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Wisconsin: my analysis is supported by the superb ground game Romney has invested in Wisconsin and because Pennsylvania has never been Obama friendly and only went his way in 2008, because of the national trend and his good ground game there, and Wisconsin has a history of being a squeaker, look in 2000 and 2004, in 2008 Obama took Wisconsin, because Republicans were in the dog house, I see 2012 as possibly 1980 all over again, but on a smaller scale.

If that turns out to be the case, this election's over.

[Badger]

I think Romney is going to take Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Wisconsin: my analysis is supported by the superb ground game Romney has invested in Wisconsin and because Pennsylvania has never been Obama friendly and only went his way in 2008, because of the national trend and his good ground game there, and Wisconsin has a history of being a squeaker, look in 2000 and 2004, in 2008 Obama took Wisconsin, because Republicans were in the dog house, I see 2012 as possibly 1980 all over again, but on a smaller scale.

I think Romney is going to take Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with Wisconsin: my analysis is supported by the superb ground game Romney has invested in Wisconsin and because Pennsylvania has never been Obama friendly and only went his way in 2008, because of the national trend and his good ground game there, and Wisconsin has a history of being a squeaker, look in 2000 and 2004, in 2008 Obama took Wisconsin, because Republicans were in the dog house, I see 2012 as possibly 1980 all over again, but on a smaller scale.

You are both personally challenged!

I'll bare the (non-TOS violating) sig of your choice until Inauguration Day if Romney carries EITHER MI or PA; you have to do the same if Romney loses both.

Willing step up to all this bravado?

Or are you both big-mouthed pu$$ies?

[5280]

Can I get plastered if Romney wins Pennsylvania and Michigan?

[Badger]

Can I get plastered if Romney wins Pennsylvania and Michigan?

Why not. I doubt you'll be the only one on the forum who would (though many for very different reasons ).