Quebec Municipal Elections 2013

[lilTommy]

Ahh you beat me Senator... but here's the link with lovely borough maps

A poll out!
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2013/10/06/denis-coderre-trone-au-sommet-des-intentions-de-vote-des-montrealais
It's from Le Journal so a conservative tabloid but...
Coderre - 39%
Bergeron - 23% (Leading in the Centre-Est)
Cote - 17
Joly - 16 (second in the Centre-Ouest & Ouest)

[Hatman 🍁]

Joly must be some Anglo lover or Tory or something.

[MaxQue]

No, it's not a "conservative" newspaper. Their polling is done by Léger, which is probably the best Quebec polling company and they are usually neutral (with a very slight nationalist lean and a very slight rightwing bias, which may be hard to spot or invisible, at times).

Despite belonging to the same group than the Suns, it's way different (the founder, the father of the former boss, was a left-wing independantist, so...).

[MaxQue]

Joly must be some Anglo lover or Tory or something.

No, a French Liberal, supported by many NDPers. She was on Trudeau leadership campaign and studied in Oxford. She is working in a big PR firm called Cohn & Wolfe.

EDIT: Lives in NDG, she is the typical "latte liberal",

[lilTommy]

I stand corrected, I saw the "Suns" relationship and just figured the paper was a right-wing rag.

Joly (I have a NPD/UCQ friend who looks to be supporting her) should be perfect to siphon votes away from Coderre in the west island and some central areas... but also attracts similar voters who Bergeron is going after. If those two eat each others voters, that could be enough for Coderre to win.
Cote's voters (who by now should just bold lol) are more likely to go Bergeron (who is second in Est, Nord and Sud-Ouest ) then Coderre or Joly no?

[MaxQue]

I stand corrected, I saw the "Suns" relationship and just figured the paper was a right-wing rag.

Joly (I have a NPD/UCQ friend who looks to be supporting her) should be perfect to siphon votes away from Coderre in the west island and some central areas... but also attracts similar voters who Bergeron is going after. If those two eat each others voters, that could be enough for Coderre to win.
Cote's voters (who by now should just bold lol) are more likely to go Bergeron (who is second in Est, Nord and Sud-Ouest ) then Coderre or Joly no?

Wow, NDP/UCQ/Joly is really a popular combinaison.
For Côté, I'm not so sure. Bergeron has an awful personality and he has alienated many people (anti-car policies at the Plateau, his far-left image, his strange declarations of the past, a scandal at Pleteau borough (council financing a association which was controled by Projet...) (he is a truther, too). Joly, being unknown, as alienated no one yet. And Coderre, he has so much name recognition than anybody likely to support is most likely already supporting him.

Then, again, being a municipal campaign, voters are swingy and not faithful. In 2007, Labeaume got 1% in the first poll and won in a landslide.

If anything, Coderre can only go down, Bergeron, as 2nd, might get useful votes to beat Coderre, Côté can improve if he begins to have more personality than a wall and Joly can only gain from more exposure.

Also, I doubt than any party will have a majority, given than none is running a full slate and local parties bloomed in a few boroughs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, this will be a rather boring race. I predict an easy victory for Coderre. I would've said that before the poll too.

[DL]

Joly must be some Anglo lover or Tory or something.

No, a French Liberal, supported by many NDPers. She was on Trudeau leadership campaign and studied in Oxford. She is working in a big PR firm called Cohn & Wolfe.

EDIT: Lives in NDG, she is the typical "latte liberal",

I was under the impression that virtually 100% of NDPers in montreal were backing Projet Montreal. why would anyone from the NDP support Joly?

[MaxQue]

Joly must be some Anglo lover or Tory or something.

No, a French Liberal, supported by many NDPers. She was on Trudeau leadership campaign and studied in Oxford. She is working in a big PR firm called Cohn & Wolfe.

EDIT: Lives in NDG, she is the typical "latte liberal",

I was under the impression that virtually 100% of NDPers in montreal were backing Projet Montreal. why would anyone from the NDP support Joly?

Because Bergeron is VERY controversial and authocratic. Most NDPers I know like Projet Montréal, but many don't like Bergeron at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

I gather a lot of NDP supporters will be voting with a split ticket.

[MaxQue]

I gather a lot of NDP supporters will be voting with a split ticket.

Well, most Joly voters will split their ticket, as she has not candidates everywhere. Anyways, it's easy to split votes, depending from wher you live you have 2 (Ville-Marie, the mayor and a city councillor) to 6 votes (Lachine, the mayor, the borough mayor, 2 city councillors and 2 borough councillors (the wards in Lachine are two-seaters)).

[lilTommy]

I gather a lot of NDP supporters will be voting with a split ticket.

Well, most Joly voters will split their ticket, as she has not candidates everywhere. Anyways, it's easy to split votes, depending from wher you live you have 2 (Ville-Marie, the mayor and a city councillor) to 6 votes (Lachine, the mayor, the borough mayor, 2 city councillors and 2 borough councillors (the wards in Lachine are two-seaters)).

I was just going to add that PM has 103 candidates for borough mayors, Councillors and borough Councillors; if Bergeron is that unpalatable, that's the advantage of a party system, you might see a huge increase in members but still lose the city-wide mayor, and maybe that's a good thing for PM. If they lose, they can focus on finding a "better" city-wide mayoral candidate next time... or draft Joly, I don't necessarily see her as being opposed to PM would she be?

[Hatman 🍁]

That is unless PM is a bit of a cult of personality. Is the party nothing without him?

[lilTommy]

That is unless PM is a bit of a cult of personality. Is the party nothing without him?

I have a few friends who are working on PM campaigns, The party is very policy right, maybe at the beginning it might have been more Bergeron-centric but at this point the party seems to have grown into something bigger then a personality cult. They run Le Plateau were Bergeron is a city councillor not mayor. Since 2009 the party has developed its own reputation.
BUT i could be wrong, a montrealer might have a different perspective. For a comparison, i do not see this like Jack and the NPD were in 2011 were they were one and the same.

[MaxQue]

That is unless PM is a bit of a cult of personality. Is the party nothing without him?

I have a few friends who are working on PM campaigns, The party is very policy right, maybe at the beginning it might have been more Bergeron-centric but at this point the party seems to have grown into something bigger then a personality cult. They run Le Plateau were Bergeron is a city councillor not mayor. Since 2009 the party has developed its own reputation.
BUT i could be wrong, a montrealer might have a different perspective. For a comparison, i do not see this like Jack and the NPD were in 2011 were they were one and the same.

The complicated Montreal system allow a city mayorship candidate to run for city councillor at the same time (by being the runningmate of another candidate), but not borough mayor.

EDIT: And Municipal politics in Quebec are personalist, whether the parties are or not.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

[MaxQue]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

Yes. Janine Krieber, wife of Stéphane Dion. That Stéphane Dion. (in the Saint-Jacques ward, Ville-Marie borough).

[Hatman 🍁]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

Yes. Janine Krieber, wife of Stéphane Dion. That Stéphane Dion. (in the Saint-Jacques ward, Ville-Marie borough).

u wot m8

[MaxQue]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

Yes. Janine Krieber, wife of Stéphane Dion. That Stéphane Dion. (in the Saint-Jacques ward, Ville-Marie borough).

u wot m8

I think it was clear. She is Bergeron's runningmate. It illustrates well my point about cleavages being personal, not ideological in municipal politics.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

Yes. Janine Krieber, wife of Stéphane Dion. That Stéphane Dion. (in the Saint-Jacques ward, Ville-Marie borough).

u wot m8

I think it was clear. She is Bergeron's runningmate. It illustrates well my point about cleavages being personal, not ideological in municipal politics.

I know, I was just surprised. Is there some sort of Dion-Coderre feud I'm not aware of?

[MaxQue]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

Yes. Janine Krieber, wife of Stéphane Dion. That Stéphane Dion. (in the Saint-Jacques ward, Ville-Marie borough).

u wot m8

I think it was clear. She is Bergeron's runningmate. It illustrates well my point about cleavages being personal, not ideological in municipal politics.

I know, I was just surprised. Is there some sort of Dion-Coderre feud I'm not aware of?

She is involved in Projet since 2 years and was vice-president of the political board of the party. It's not related to Coderre, given the timing.

In the same borough, the candidate in Peter-McGill is a NDPer (and president of the Park Avenue shopowner association), so...

[Leftbehind]

his far-left image, his strange declarations of the past

Mostly to do with his truther stance...or?

[MaxQue]

his far-left image, his strange declarations of the past

Mostly to do with his truther stance...or?

More his anti-car campaigning before he was in politics. He also denied than tobacco cause cancer, in the past (through I think he relented on that).

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing wrong with anti-car campaigning

[MaxQue]

Nothing wrong with anti-car campaigning

Not all electors agree, through.