PA: Rasmussen: Casey and Smith essentially tied.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey (D) - 46%
Smith (R) - 45%

Link

[Brittain33]

Wow, I still don't expect Smith to win but this would be the candidate for biggest not-unthinkable surprise upset of the night.

[Mr.Phips]

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania. 

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Rasmussen on 2012-10-25

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Ljube]

9% undecideds? I think Smith is going to win this one.

[Lief 🗽]

Sure Scott.

[Franzl]

It would be amusing if we lost PA and gained IN.

[Niemeyerite]

If Casey loses this (something that is unlikely to happen), he will have deserved it. What a jerk. Not even Bernie Sanders has stopped campaigning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, I'm starting to see some fairness in all this. If Smith loses by a very thin margin, this will be Sestak's vengeance.

(I'd be very happy to switch Casey for Sestak and Toomey for Smith, of course)

[Keystone Phil]

Actually, I'm starting to see some fairness in all this. If Smith loses by a very thin margin, this will be Sestak's vengeance.

(I'd be very happy to switch Casey for Sestak and Toomey for Smith, of course)

Vengeance? What? It isn't like Sestak ran against or planning to challenge Casey.

[Vosem]

Mmhm...Smith clearly has momentum but he is probably still behind by ~3 points, considering Rasmussen's lean. There are enough undecideds to get him over the hump, but I don't think he'll quite make it. This election does have the makings of an upset (pretty similar things going on in the Brown/Mandel race in Ohio, though it isn't as dramatic as this; Brown's also hemorrhaged some support, but he's lost less, was up by less, and hasn't stopped campaigning). I would argue either Brown, Casey, and Obama all win or Romney, Smith, and Mandel all win.

What does Sestak have to do with it? I've heard he's preparing for a 2014 gubernatorial bid...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, I'm starting to see some fairness in all this. If Smith loses by a very thin margin, this will be Sestak's vengeance.

(I'd be very happy to switch Casey for Sestak and Toomey for Smith, of course)

Vengeance? What? It isn't like Sestak ran against or planning to challenge Casey.

No, I mean in the "candidate who clearly ran a better campaign but still lost because of bad national circumstances" way.

[Eraserhead]

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania.  

Obama is probably going to do better than Casey in PA.

[Badger]

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania.  

Obama is probably going to do better than Casey in PA.

Yep. And who here would've bet that 3 months ago?

(Put your hand down Phil!)

[Keystone Phil]

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania.  

Obama is probably going to do better than Casey in PA.

Yep. And who here would've bet that 3 months ago?

(Put your hand down Phil!)

Hey, I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it again: I didn't think Smith would be doing this well. Don't give me credit.

[Badger]

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania.  

Obama is probably going to do better than Casey in PA.

Yep. And who here would've bet that 3 months ago?

(Put your hand down Phil!)

Hey, I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it again: I didn't think Smith would be doing this well. Don't give me credit.

Or maybe that Casey would be doing this piss-poor?

[Keystone Phil]

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania.  

Obama is probably going to do better than Casey in PA.

Yep. And who here would've bet that 3 months ago?

(Put your hand down Phil!)

Hey, I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it again: I didn't think Smith would be doing this well. Don't give me credit.

Or maybe that Casey would be doing this piss-poor?

Nope. With his name, Pennsylvania's generally favorable feelings towards incumbents and running for re-election in a Presidential election year, I didn't think this was much of a race. I've said in the past that Casey isn't necessarily a slam dunk and that the right challenger could give him a real run for his money but I didn't see this coming in this match up.

[J. J.]

Smith, interestingly, was not the Tea Party candidate in the primary.  He basically came out of nowhere

[tmthforu94]

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania. 

Obama is probably going to do better than Casey in PA.

Yep. And who here would've bet that 3 months ago?

(Put your hand down Phil!)

*Raises Hand*

[Badger]

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania.  

Obama is probably going to do better than Casey in PA.

Yep. And who here would've bet that 3 months ago?

(Put your hand down Phil!)

Hey, I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it again: I didn't think Smith would be doing this well. Don't give me credit.

Or maybe that Casey would be doing this piss-poor?

Nope. With his name, Pennsylvania's generally favorable feelings towards incumbents and running for re-election in a Presidential election year, I didn't think this was much of a race. I've said in the past that Casey isn't necessarily a slam dunk and that the right challenger could give him a real run for his money but I didn't see this coming in this match up.

No, I meant that Casey would do such a piss-poor job campaigning (when he even bothered to do so).

[Keystone Phil]

Smith, interestingly, was not the Tea Party candidate in the primary.  He basically came out of nowhere

He ended up being one of them. Tea Partiers were mostly split between Smith and Rohrer. He's a founder of a Tea Party group out west, after all.

If Smith wins here, Obama is losing Pennsylvania. 

Obama is probably going to do better than Casey in PA.

Yep. And who here would've bet that 3 months ago?

(Put your hand down Phil!)

Hey, I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it again: I didn't think Smith would be doing this well. Don't give me credit.

Or maybe that Casey would be doing this piss-poor?

Nope. With his name, Pennsylvania's generally favorable feelings towards incumbents and running for re-election in a Presidential election year, I didn't think this was much of a race. I've said in the past that Casey isn't necessarily a slam dunk and that the right challenger could give him a real run for his money but I didn't see this coming in this match up.

No, I meant that Casey would do such a piss-poor job campaigning (when he even bothered to do so).

Ah, ok. Fair enough.

[J. J.]

Smith, interestingly, was not the Tea Party candidate in the primary.  He basically came out of nowhere

He ended up being one of them. Tea Partiers were mostly split between Smith and Rohrer. He's a founder of a Tea Party group out west, after all.

I was doing some consulting (in my actual field, not political as such) for a Tea Party member last year.  She was strongly opposed to whomever the "Establishment" candidate was.  She mentioned Rohrer.  She didn't mention Smith at all. 

[Franzl]

Smith, interestingly, was not the Tea Party candidate in the primary.  He basically came out of nowhere

He ended up being one of them. Tea Partiers were mostly split between Smith and Rohrer. He's a founder of a Tea Party group out west, after all.

I was doing some consulting (in my actual field, not political as such) for a Tea Party member last year.  She was strongly opposed to whomever the "Establishment" candidate was.  She mentioned Rohrer.  She didn't mention Smith at all. 

Well that settles it then.

[J. J.]

Smith, interestingly, was not the Tea Party candidate in the primary.  He basically came out of nowhere

He ended up being one of them. Tea Partiers were mostly split between Smith and Rohrer. He's a founder of a Tea Party group out west, after all.

I was doing some consulting (in my actual field, not political as such) for a Tea Party member last year.  She was strongly opposed to whomever the "Establishment" candidate was.  She mentioned Rohrer.  She didn't mention Smith at all. 

Well that settles it then.

It was someone in the leadership and politically active.  That's why I was surprised by the support.

[Person Man]

If he loses, it just comes to show that giving up on social issues isn't the solution if we become a threatened minority after this election.