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| | |-+  Poll of Florida political insiders say Romney wins FL
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Author Topic: Poll of Florida political insiders say Romney wins FL  (Read 459 times)
Cliffy
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« on: October 26, 2012, 11:23:51 pm »
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Sorry Barack Obama, but the smartest political minds in Florida think Mitt Romney will win the state.

Our latest exclusive Florida Insider Poll of more than 100 of the most experienced and savviest political hands in the state, found that 73 percent expect Romney will win the Sunshine State, while 27 percent predict Obama. Sixty percent of Democrats expect Romney will win Florida’s 29 electoral votes and 95 percent of Republicans expect Romney to carry Florida .

What a difference a debate makes. Our last Florida Insider Poll, in August, found 95 percent of Democrats predicting Obama would win Florida, and 73 percent of Republicans betting on Romney winning.


http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/fla-insider-poll-romney-heavily-favored-win-fla
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Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2012, 11:28:54 pm »
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I think MOST sensible people give Romney the edge in FL, considering it had one of the smallest swing-state margins in 2008...
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Cliffy
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2012, 11:40:00 pm »
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Seems to be alot of doubt around here that Florida is not in play, the title of the article is "Romney heavily favored"
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2012, 11:40:22 pm »
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And what do you think would be the results of this sort of poll in Ohio, Cliffy?
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2012, 11:43:55 pm »
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Nate Silver gives Romney a 63% of winning FL; decent, but that doesn't make him a 'heavy favorite.'
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Cliffy
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2012, 11:59:59 pm »
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Nate Silver gives Romney a 63% of winning FL; decent, but that doesn't make him a 'heavy favorite.'

If a lib hack gives Romney a 63% chance of winning anything, put a 2nd mortgage on your house and bet it all.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2012, 12:00:57 am »
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And what do you think would be the results of this sort of poll in Ohio, Cliffy?

Well I'd guess 50/50. 
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Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2012, 12:02:20 am »
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Nate Silver gives Romney a 63% of winning FL; decent, but that doesn't make him a 'heavy favorite.'

If a lib hack gives Romney a 63% chance of winning anything, put a 2nd mortgage on your house and bet it all.

So the person who got 49/50 states and all Senate races in 2008... is a hack. Ugh, I worry for the bubble.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2012, 12:09:29 am »
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Nate Silver gives Romney a 63% of winning FL; decent, but that doesn't make him a 'heavy favorite.'

If a lib hack gives Romney a 63% chance of winning anything, put a 2nd mortgage on your house and bet it all.

That liberal hack also gave Sharron Angle a 72% chance of winning. 'Good thing I didn't take that bet to Vegas...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2012, 12:37:44 am »
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Nate Silver is not a liberal hack, while he admits he supports Obama, he gains his reputation for being accurate in his predictions. If he is as wrong to the extent many right-wingers are now claiming he won't have his job come 2016.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2012, 12:46:11 am by Gass3268 »Logged


Anyways everything else about it looks good, here's to the new alter-ego of the Progressive Union!
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2012, 01:53:19 am »
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Id say Florida is almost certainly safer for Romney than Ohio is for Obama. 
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Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2012, 02:03:55 am »
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Id say Florida is almost certainly safer for Romney than Ohio is for Obama. 

I think they're probably as safe as each other.
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2012, 02:12:46 am »
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Obama is ahead by more in Ohio right now than Romney is in Florida.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2012, 02:17:29 am »
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Obama is ahead by more in Ohio right now than Romney is in Florida.

Real Clear Politics has Obama leading by 2.3% in Ohio and Romney leading 1.8% in Florida.  The difference here is that Obama is the incumbent at just 48% and will probably lose a majority of the undecideds. 
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butafly [豚フライ]
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2012, 03:08:22 am »
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Obama is ahead by more in Ohio right now than Romney is in Florida.

Real Clear Politics has Obama leading by 2.3% in Ohio and Romney leading 1.8% in Florida.  The difference here is that Obama is the incumbent at just 48% and will probably lose a majority of the undecideds. 

1) The RCP guys aren't even trying to look objective; no-name polls are added when they favour Republicans but not otherwise (Gravis/Susquehanna vs. Pharos)

2) Every time you mention the 'incumbent rule', Fluttershy cries:

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Ljube
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2012, 03:09:12 am »
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Nate Silver is not a liberal hack, while he admits he supports Obama, he gains his reputation for being accurate in his predictions. If he is as wrong to the extent many right-wingers are now claiming he won't have his job come 2016.

He will have his job in any case. If Dick Morris can still have his job anybody can.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2012, 10:51:00 am »
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Nate Silver is not a liberal hack, while he admits he supports Obama, he gains his reputation for being accurate in his predictions. If he is as wrong to the extent many right-wingers are now claiming he won't have his job come 2016.

You do realize he works for the "liberal" New York Times.
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