CO 2014

[California8429]

State Senator Ellen Roberts' name is floated for a run (no idea if she'd actually want to do it). She's a true moderate from Durango in the SW. Very popular outside of the GOP, picked up a democratic senate seat in 2010 after a few terms in the house (lost the GOP convention 2-1, but one the primary....nothing says I'm a moderate when you're in CO like that).

Her main focus is health care and rural issues. Rural CO has always disliked Hickenlooper and distrusts Denver. Of course, Udall is the seat to go for, but she's probably the strongest option against Hickenlooper. Although two respective moderates of their own parties probably will lack enthusiasm from the far left and more importantly, the far right.

[Talleyrand]

I expect Jane Norton to beat Udall in 2014.

Udall is an incumbent human. Norton is an already failed robot in an increasingly democrat state who is seen as both a conservative extremist and a liberal. Next

Colorado is trending toward Democrats but Republicans are still competitive.  For anybody's purposes, it's a swing state.

I agree, but if the GOP wants to beat Udall, they're going to have to get someone better than Norton, like John Suthers.

[hopper]

State Senator Ellen Roberts' name is floated for a run (no idea if she'd actually want to do it). She's a true moderate from Durango in the SW. Very popular outside of the GOP, picked up a democratic senate seat in 2010 after a few terms in the house (lost the GOP convention 2-1, but one the primary....nothing says I'm a moderate when you're in CO like that).

Her main focus is health care and rural issues. Rural CO has always disliked Hickenlooper and distrusts Denver. Of course, Udall is the seat to go for, but she's probably the strongest option against Hickenlooper. Although two respective moderates of their own parties probably will lack enthusiasm from the far left and more importantly, the far right.

Yeah I know the CO suburbs don't trust Denver.. Its like Illinois not trusting Chicago(politicians!)

[coloradocowboi]

The University of the Colorado is one of the most liberal universities in the country and I'm sure a large % of Colorado's population went to school there.

This is very innaccurate. CU itself trends more conservative than a lot of universities because it is mostly rich out of state kids. Boulder leans left but the real force behind the Dem explosion is Latino growth in Jeffco, Arapahoe, and Adams making them trend blue.

Coffman is the best hope for state-wide.

He only beat a candidate who might have been a practical joke (google Joe Miklosi biker bill) by 5 points. Coffman would be a very weak candidate. Even if he runs in the 6th he might lose, especially if Andrew Romanoff takes him on.

2014 is shaping up to be another good year for Dems in CO. For starters, it is moving to the left. The Denver Metro area now contain 2/3 of the state population. 20 percent of the State is Latino. Denver has one of the highest concentrations of LGBT people and the state is relatively young.

Gov- Hickenlooper is reviled by Dems but all but guaranteed re-election. The GOP will likely sacrifice Scott Gessler to him.

Senate- Udall is a little weak but the Republicans have a horrible bench. Suthers and Norton would fare okay, but Beauprez and Coffmann are the front runners right now and both would lose statewide.

AG- This is going to be the real marquee race. The Republicans will have a choice between Tea-Partyin' Ken Buck and establishment candidate Cynthia Coffman (Mike's wife) and the Dems will choose between Boulder liberal DA Stan Garnett or Adams County DA, and Salazar protege/moderate Don Quick. Don Quick would easily win election statewide, but has less $ than Garnett so might not survive his primary. Quick vs. Coffman would be the most competitive race, but I sadly think that Buck vs. Garnett is more realistic. This will be a close one unless it is Quick vs. Buck.

SoS- This will also be a real interesting one. Jeffco Clerk Pam Anderson--related to GOP icon Norma Anderson--will likely be taking on CU Regent Joe Neguse. Gessler sh**t all over this office, but Joe is very liberal and not as well known. It's a tossup

Treasurer- The one bright spot for GOP is that Walker STapleton is a shoe-in for re-election, even if former Treasurer Cary Kennedy gives him a run for his money.

CD1- Will this be the year that someone gives DeGette a primary? Possibly... Rumors say State Sen. Mike JOhnston is looking at it.
CD2- Eventually people will start to feel the same way about Polis that they do about DeGette. His money will keep them away though.
CD3- Dems have a weak bench. IN 2016 this seat could be very vulnerable though.
CD4- GOP forever
CD5- See above
CD6- This is going Dem. Especially if Andrew Romanoff runs.
CD7- It is staying Dem. Latino % here only growing.

[5280]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

[California8429]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

We don't have a bench to afford running someone strong against Hickenlooper at the moment. Suthers would be great state wide, best use him to take on Udall.

And to the newbie, Coffman has never lost an election. He's been playing politics for decades (House and Senate in the 90s), elected state-wide to Treasurer and SoS. Both the tea party and establishment love him, which is hard to come by these days in Colorado. Yes he took heat because of these calculated moves running for congress to win the conservative support for a state-wide office he's always wanted to run for, but he still won re-election and now he's a unifying figure for the party. Furthermore, while 2016 may be more democratic than 2014, 2012 is midterms where minorities turn out less (not to say democrats don't have the upper edge looking at 2010), but they aren't starting with another huge leap forward liberally from 2012.

And CU is an extremely liberal institution with Boulder being solidly liberal, not lean. When was the last time republicans were actually competitive there?

[5280]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

We don't have a bench to afford running someone strong against Hickenlooper at the moment. Suthers would be great state wide, best use him to take on Udall.

And to the newbie, Coffman has never lost an election. He's been playing politics for decades (House and Senate in the 90s), elected state-wide to Treasurer and SoS. Both the tea party and establishment love him, which is hard to come by these days in Colorado. Yes he took heat because of these calculated moves running for congress to win the conservative support for a state-wide office he's always wanted to run for, but he still won re-election and now he's a unifying figure for the party. Furthermore, while 2016 may be more democratic than 2014, 2012 is midterms where minorities turn out less (not to say democrats don't have the upper edge looking at 2010), but they aren't starting with another huge leap forward liberally from 2012.

And CU is an extremely liberal institution with Boulder being solidly liberal, not lean. When was the last time republicans were actually competitive there?

Reagan won Boulder county in 1984, so that might be the last time it was considered competitive.

[hopper]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

No they aren;t. California has the most electoral votes of any state and will probably gain a seat in the 2020 Census. Texas is the only state that had more population growth than California in the 2010 US Census. People move out of the Northeast because of higher taxes but not CA though. People like the weather and the beaches in CA.

[5280]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

No they aren;t. California has the most electoral votes of any state and will probably gain a seat in the 2020 Census. Texas is the only state that had more population growth than California in the 2010 US Census. People move out of the Northeast because of higher taxes but not CA though. People like the weather and the beaches in CA.

Explain why 254 companies are moving out of CA to more business places like Texas and South Dakota. Companies move where the business environment is more friendly to them without excessive tax burden and regulations. If you want beaches, go to Florida or even South Carolina.

Colorado is leading the example of California in the 80s and 90s right now.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/moved-342887-companies-texas.html

[coloradocowboi]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

No they aren;t. California has the most electoral votes of any state and will probably gain a seat in the 2020 Census. Texas is the only state that had more population growth than California in the 2010 US Census. People move out of the Northeast because of higher taxes but not CA though. People like the weather and the beaches in CA.

Explain why 254 companies are moving out of CA to more business places like Texas and South Dakota. Companies move where the business environment is more friendly to them without excessive tax burden and regulations. If you want beaches, go to Florida or even South Carolina.

Colorado is leading the example of California in the 80s and 90s right now.

This is highly inaccurate. Yes, companies are leaving CA but not because of high taxes, if anything it is the opposite problem. Their version of TABOR has nearly bankrupted the state and they have no new revenue. California has incredibly low taxes. So, you're right CO is going the way of CA, and TABOR is the reason why.

[hopper]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

No they aren;t. California has the most electoral votes of any state and will probably gain a seat in the 2020 Census. Texas is the only state that had more population growth than California in the 2010 US Census. People move out of the Northeast because of higher taxes but not CA though. People like the weather and the beaches in CA.

Explain why 254 companies are moving out of CA to more business places like Texas and South Dakota. Companies move where the business environment is more friendly to them without excessive tax burden and regulations. If you want beaches, go to Florida or even South Carolina.

Colorado is leading the example of California in the 80s and 90s right now.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/moved-342887-companies-texas.html

CA has more people and more electoral votes than FL or SC or even if you combined FL and SC electoral votes together CA would still have more electoral votes and more people.

[5280]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

No they aren;t. California has the most electoral votes of any state and will probably gain a seat in the 2020 Census. Texas is the only state that had more population growth than California in the 2010 US Census. People move out of the Northeast because of higher taxes but not CA though. People like the weather and the beaches in CA.

Explain why 254 companies are moving out of CA to more business places like Texas and South Dakota. Companies move where the business environment is more friendly to them without excessive tax burden and regulations. If you want beaches, go to Florida or even South Carolina.

Colorado is leading the example of California in the 80s and 90s right now.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/moved-342887-companies-texas.html

CA has more people and more electoral votes than FL or SC or even if you combined FL and SC electoral votes together CA would still have more electoral votes and more people.

And explain to me why CA is the worst run state in the US again?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-best-and-worst-run-states-in-america-150415625.html

[hopper]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

No they aren;t. California has the most electoral votes of any state and will probably gain a seat in the 2020 Census. Texas is the only state that had more population growth than California in the 2010 US Census. People move out of the Northeast because of higher taxes but not CA though. People like the weather and the beaches in CA.

Explain why 254 companies are moving out of CA to more business places like Texas and South Dakota. Companies move where the business environment is more friendly to them without excessive tax burden and regulations. If you want beaches, go to Florida or even South Carolina.

Colorado is leading the example of California in the 80s and 90s right now.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/moved-342887-companies-texas.html

CA has more people and more electoral votes than FL or SC or even if you combined FL and SC electoral votes together CA would still have more electoral votes and more people.

And explain to me why CA is the worst run state in the US again?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-best-and-worst-run-states-in-america-150415625.html

Sure its the worst run state but people move there in droves.

[coloradocowboi]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

No they aren;t. California has the most electoral votes of any state and will probably gain a seat in the 2020 Census. Texas is the only state that had more population growth than California in the 2010 US Census. People move out of the Northeast because of higher taxes but not CA though. People like the weather and the beaches in CA.

Explain why 254 companies are moving out of CA to more business places like Texas and South Dakota. Companies move where the business environment is more friendly to them without excessive tax burden and regulations. If you want beaches, go to Florida or even South Carolina.

Colorado is leading the example of California in the 80s and 90s right now.

CA has more people and more electoral votes than FL or SC or even if you combined FL and SC electoral votes together CA would still have more electoral votes and more people.

And explain to me why CA is the worst run state in the US again?

TABOR... They are bankrupt.

[Vosem]

AG- This is going to be the real marquee race. The Republicans will have a choice between Tea-Partyin' Ken Buck and establishment candidate Cynthia Coffman (Mike's wife) and the Dems will choose between Boulder liberal DA Stan Garnett or Adams County DA, and Salazar protege/moderate Don Quick. Don Quick would easily win election statewide, but has less $ than Garnett so might not survive his primary. Quick vs. Coffman would be the most competitive race, but I sadly think that Buck vs. Garnett is more realistic. This will be a close one unless it is Quick vs. Buck.

Ken Buck? Godpleaseno

SoS- This will also be a real interesting one. Jeffco Clerk Pam Anderson--related to GOP icon Norma Anderson--will likely be taking on CU Regent Joe Neguse. Gessler sh**t all over this office, but Joe is very liberal and not as well known. It's a tossup

Is Gessler not running for another term?

[California8429]

AG- This is going to be the real marquee race. The Republicans will have a choice between Tea-Partyin' Ken Buck and establishment candidate Cynthia Coffman (Mike's wife) and the Dems will choose between Boulder liberal DA Stan Garnett or Adams County DA, and Salazar protege/moderate Don Quick. Don Quick would easily win election statewide, but has less $ than Garnett so might not survive his primary. Quick vs. Coffman would be the most competitive race, but I sadly think that Buck vs. Garnett is more realistic. This will be a close one unless it is Quick vs. Buck.

Ken Buck? Godpleaseno

SoS- This will also be a real interesting one. Jeffco Clerk Pam Anderson--related to GOP icon Norma Anderson--will likely be taking on CU Regent Joe Neguse. Gessler sh**t all over this office, but Joe is very liberal and not as well known. It's a tossup

Is Gessler not running for another term?

Gessler is plagued with scandals, if he runs for a second term it would be an easy dem pick-up. He's been setting his sights on the Governor's Mansion since he got into office- I don't know who he thinks he is he has no support but he got a fundraiser going off of it last winter/spring. So we all hope he runs for something else so we can win SoS

[sg0508]

I expect Jane Norton to beat Udall in 2014.

The CO GOP is similar to the Kansas GP.  A good chunk is too conservative for the state and the rest is moderate.  There's constant infighting and it often lets democrats have the upperhand. 

The CO democratic party is a well-oiled machine.  They have a terrific warchest of candidates and they push the right buttons that sell around the DEMOGRAPHICS of the state, something the GOP continues to ignore there.  They act as if this is 1990 CO and it's not (similar to the GOP in VA). 

[backtored]

I think that the GOP handwringing over Colorado is a little odd.  Ideologically, the state has always had a strong libertarian and independent streak, and I don't think that it has become much more liberal, at least relative to the rest of the country.  I think that money has a lot to do with it, and Democrats here have simply been a lot better at micro-targeting and fundraising, thanks, in part, to millionaire donors like Tim Gill.  The GOP was a lot weaker in '08 than it is today, and the missing piece to the puzzle is the financial aspect, which the GOP will probably have in order in a couple of years.

The GOP looked so strong here in '00 and '02 because the Republican GOTV outfit was simply better.  It made the state look more red than it ever was.  And Obama's success here is owed to the same reasons he has had success nationally--his coalition of young and minority voters is pretty tough to beat.  But the president will never be on a Colorado ballot again, and the GOP will have a much better shot at future races in the state.

In 2014 Coffman, Gardner, or Norton would all be real threats to a marginally popular Udall.  Even in a big Democratic year like 2012, Republicans still held onto their 4-3 congressional lead--despite horrible Democratic gerrymandering designed to pick off two GOP seats.  We'll easily win back the state Senate, and pick up seats in the state House.  The gubernatorial race will be tough, but Hickenlooper has been more of a centrist/libertarian than an actual Democrat.  Colorado loves centrist Democrats for governor, even if they're less centrist than we think they are.

And this "Colorado is the next Oregon/California" stuff isn't really realistic.  We're a swing state, and in good GOP years we'll swing right.  We actually did swing right in 2010, with big performances up and down the ballot.  We ostensibly did not contest the gubernatorial race, and Ken Buck, a Tea Party candidate with zero statewide experience, very narrowly lost to Michael Bennet. 

The whole country is shifting left on many fronts, so why would Colorado be an exception?  It's not a red state, and it never was as red as people think.  In fact, we had environmentalist liberals for Senators in the '80s and centrist Democratic governors, too.  Has that really changed?  Demographics have made the COUNTRY easier for Democrats to win, and that includes Colorado.  But ideologically and politically, we're pretty much right in the middle of things.  That's not going to change.

And, I'll note, Colorado--demographically, politically, and ideologically--is very similar to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.  IF you can find a way to win Virginia, you'll likely win Colorado, too.  So you can't just say, oh, well, Colorado is now a blue state and get on with things.  Colorado is the canary in the political coal mine.  It's full of conservatives and evangelicals as much as it's full of liberals and students. 

[backtored]

I don't think Republicans can win CO ever, state level or national level.  It's just a non-stop target that Democrats don't want to give up for some odd reason.  The GOP in CO needs to get its act together or it's another California. 

I think a better comparison is Oregon.  Denver has become the new Portland and the rest of the state is also becoming more democratic.  The University of the Colorado is one of the most liberal universities in the country and I'm sure a large % of Colorado's population went to school there.

I think Coloradons are a little more fiscally conservative than Oregonians are. Colorado has a heavy libertarian streak.

Sure Boulder leans dem but Polis's district was only D+8 in redistricting. Its not as heavily dem as one would think.

And Colorado has a robust social conservative movement that Oregon does not.  Oregon is exceptionally liberal on social issues, and more moderate on fiscal ones.  Colorado is fairly conservative on most economic issues (try passing a statewide tax hike anytime soon), and generally middle-of-the-road on social issues (or, more accurately, it's polarized on social issues, and it looks either socially conservative or socially liberal depending on who wins legislative races or ballot issues).

[backtored]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

And CU is an extremely liberal institution with Boulder being solidly liberal, not lean. When was the last time republicans were actually competitive there?

The president of the University of Colorado, Bruce Benson, is a Republican who once ran for governor and the board of regents is, I believe, basically split between conservatives and liberals.  Brian Davidson lost by a point in November in the statewide regent seat which would have given Republicans an edge.  Now I think it's something like 4-4.

And, as a somewhat recent CU alum, I'd say that Boulder itself is probably more liberal than CU students.  Young Republicans are actually the majority in student government, or so I recall.  It's a pretty diverse campus, politically speaking.  The out-of-state crowd is mixed, and the in-state kids kind of mirror the state as a whole--some Denver liberals, some suburban conservatives, some evangelicals, some hippies, some ranching kids, etc.

[coloradocowboi]

My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

And CU is an extremely liberal institution with Boulder being solidly liberal, not lean. When was the last time republicans were actually competitive there?

The president of the University of Colorado, Bruce Benson, is a Republican who once ran for governor and the board of regents is, I believe, basically split between conservatives and liberals.  Brian Davidson lost by a point in November in the statewide regent seat which would have given Republicans an edge.  Now I think it's something like 4-4.

And, as a somewhat recent CU alum, I'd say that Boulder itself is probably more liberal than CU students.  Young Republicans are actually the majority in student government, or so I recall.  It's a pretty diverse campus, politically speaking.  The out-of-state crowd is mixed, and the in-state kids kind of mirror the state as a whole--some Denver liberals, some suburban conservatives, some evangelicals, some hippies, some ranching kids, etc.

I am in CU Student Government and the majority is Dems... for now. But it has fluctuated in the past.

As for your other comments, I disagree. Colorado actually has higher levels of support for gay marriage than Oregon and we passed 64 while legal weed failed there. Colorado is more similar to 2000 Oregon than it is to modern NC. And, with a majority of people under 18 being non-white, the GOP has to really change if it is going to start winning. Right now El Paso and Douglas counties are all that keep them competitive, but Jeffco, Arapahoe, Larimer, and Adams are drifting away.

Just look at the County Commissioners race in Jeffco. Casey Tighe should never have won, but he managed to eke it out. Denver has one of the highest gay populations in the country and Latinos are blowing up. If the GOP does not moderate itself in the next decade, it will become irrelevant.

However, they will have a chance if the Democrats get cocky and nominate uninspiring candidates like Morgan Carroll for AG or Joe Miklosi for the 6th CD.

As for your comments about Udall, then why is he trouncing Coffman by over 10 points in recent polls? He will be too hard to beat. Only Jane Norton could take him out.

[California8429]

Anyone hearing anymore news?

I can't even find out if someone is going to challenge Ryan Call for State Chair, obviously from the tea party/right. The man is smart with legal stuff, but he can't lead only half a party and win a state race. I honestly don't know who can unite both the far right and the moderate establishment as state chair, or as the Senate candidate (assuming we aren't going to try for Governor barring an amazing dark horse)

[California8429]

Josh Penry is being recruited by Chairman Ryan Call for Governor. What a weak candidate

[Talleyrand]

Josh Penry is being recruited by Chairman Ryan Call for Governor. What a weak candidate

Isn't he that charismatic 30-something wunderkind who was once hailed as the future of the Colorado Republican Party?

And which legitimate Colorado Republican would actually consider running against someone as popular as Hickenlooper? Seems like a better bet would be Senator, where they'd actually have a chance of pulling off the win.

[Indy Texas]

So for a glimpse of the political future of Colorado, look to California?

Thankfully, Colorado doesn't use the referendum system and thus likely won't have the problem of citizens and state employees demanding more and more public benefits while refusing to accept any tax increases to pay for them.