CO 2014

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I think that the GOP handwringing over Colorado is a little odd.  Ideologically, the state has always had a strong libertarian and independent streak, and I don't think that it has become much more liberal, at least relative to the rest of the country.  I think that money has a lot to do with it, and Democrats here have simply been a lot better at micro-targeting and fundraising, thanks, in part, to millionaire donors like Tim Gill.  The GOP was a lot weaker in '08 than it is today, and the missing piece to the puzzle is the financial aspect, which the GOP will probably have in order in a couple of years.

The GOP looked so strong here in '00 and '02 because the Republican GOTV outfit was simply better.  It made the state look more red than it ever was.  And Obama's success here is owed to the same reasons he has had success nationally--his coalition of young and minority voters is pretty tough to beat.  But the president will never be on a Colorado ballot again, and the GOP will have a much better shot at future races in the state.

In 2014 Coffman, Gardner, or Norton would all be real threats to a marginally popular Udall.  Even in a big Democratic year like 2012, Republicans still held onto their 4-3 congressional lead--despite horrible Democratic gerrymandering designed to pick off two GOP seats.  We'll easily win back the state Senate, and pick up seats in the state House.  The gubernatorial race will be tough, but Hickenlooper has been more of a centrist/libertarian than an actual Democrat.  Colorado loves centrist Democrats for governor, even if they're less centrist than we think they are.

And this "Colorado is the next Oregon/California" stuff isn't really realistic.  We're a swing state, and in good GOP years we'll swing right.  We actually did swing right in 2010, with big performances up and down the ballot.  We ostensibly did not contest the gubernatorial race, and Ken Buck, a Tea Party candidate with zero statewide experience, very narrowly lost to Michael Bennet. 

The whole country is shifting left on many fronts, so why would Colorado be an exception?  It's not a red state, and it never was as red as people think.  In fact, we had environmentalist liberals for Senators in the '80s and centrist Democratic governors, too.  Has that really changed?  Demographics have made the COUNTRY easier for Democrats to win, and that includes Colorado.  But ideologically and politically, we're pretty much right in the middle of things.  That's not going to change.

And, I'll note, Colorado--demographically, politically, and ideologically--is very similar to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.  IF you can find a way to win Virginia, you'll likely win Colorado, too.  So you can't just say, oh, well, Colorado is now a blue state and get on with things.  Colorado is the canary in the political coal mine.  It's full of conservatives and evangelicals as much as it's full of liberals and students. 

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I don't think Republicans can win CO ever, state level or national level.  It's just a non-stop target that Democrats don't want to give up for some odd reason.  The GOP in CO needs to get its act together or it's another California. 

I think a better comparison is Oregon.  Denver has become the new Portland and the rest of the state is also becoming more democratic.  The University of the Colorado is one of the most liberal universities in the country and I'm sure a large % of Colorado's population went to school there.

I think Coloradons are a little more fiscally conservative than Oregonians are. Colorado has a heavy libertarian streak.

Sure Boulder leans dem but Polis's district was only D+8 in redistricting. Its not as heavily dem as one would think.

And Colorado has a robust social conservative movement that Oregon does not.  Oregon is exceptionally liberal on social issues, and more moderate on fiscal ones.  Colorado is fairly conservative on most economic issues (try passing a statewide tax hike anytime soon), and generally middle-of-the-road on social issues (or, more accurately, it's polarized on social issues, and it looks either socially conservative or socially liberal depending on who wins legislative races or ballot issues).

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My advice for Republicans, find somebody who is a strong candidate in 2014 to run as govenor. John Suthers would be a viable choice to run in 2014.

If that doesn't work, Republicans should flee the state cause it's only going to become more Democrat, alot like California. Look what is happening to California, people are moving out of the state in droves.  That will happen to CO next decade, guaranteed.

And CU is an extremely liberal institution with Boulder being solidly liberal, not lean. When was the last time republicans were actually competitive there?

The president of the University of Colorado, Bruce Benson, is a Republican who once ran for governor and the board of regents is, I believe, basically split between conservatives and liberals.  Brian Davidson lost by a point in November in the statewide regent seat which would have given Republicans an edge.  Now I think it's something like 4-4.

And, as a somewhat recent CU alum, I'd say that Boulder itself is probably more liberal than CU students.  Young Republicans are actually the majority in student government, or so I recall.  It's a pretty diverse campus, politically speaking.  The out-of-state crowd is mixed, and the in-state kids kind of mirror the state as a whole--some Denver liberals, some suburban conservatives, some evangelicals, some hippies, some ranching kids, etc.

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Democrats will be favored.  The GOP is so, so weak in CO these days.

That may be changing after this gun control bill passes.

You're delusional if you think this will have any impact on next year's races.

I've never even shot a gun before and these bills make me furious.

It's difficult to exaggerate the enormity of the Democrats' political miscalculation here.  Of all the hornets nests the Democrats could have kicked, guns may be the grand-daddy of them all in this state.

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All we've heard about here in Colorado is that Republicans fear Democrats like John Hickenlooper and Cory Gardner.  So, the logic goes, Colorado must be a blue state.

Tell that to GOP superstar Cory Gardner, who is evidently ramping up for a statewide run next year:

http://thecoloradoobserver.com/2013/03/gardner-moves-toward-statewide-run/

I think that many media and Democratic observers have assumed that Gardner would keep his powder dry and let someone else make the "futile" run.

It's tough to exaggerate the momentum the GOP has picked up in Colorado in the wake of the Dems' amazing legislative overreach.  But, evidently, Rep. Gardner feels it, too.

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Owen Hill announced for Senate!!! The only candidate who can lose and still have a good career after the race. He'll be an excellent candidate with military, small business, and charity background, a picture perfect family, and a very young face to bring youth to the republican party.

I'm actually pretty excited about Hill's candidacy.  I think that there is a general sense that Udall is by no means invulnerable.  The reality is that Colorado doesn't sway much, and neither party is going to net more than 53% of the vote in most elections.  You can put Elmer Fudd up and still climb into the 40s simply because of the size of the GOP base.

However, I do think that Hill can win if he is able to build a large enough cash kettle.  Udall circulated rumors last week that the Koch Bros. are especially looking to target Udall, which would obviously be bad thing for him and a good thing for Hill or whomever is the eventual GOP candidate.  Hill is young, well-spoken, and I think that he would not be an especially easy target in a typically rough Colorado GOP primary.  Other than his "yes" vote on ASSET, I don't know of any serious conservative weakness.  He's a definite social conservative (a must for any statewide GOP candidate), and his youth and relative blank slate allow him to follow Bill Owens' "kitchen table focus" route to victory.

And it looks like the secession talk has simmered down quite a lot, so hopefully those fine folks on the plains will focus on winning a GOP majority in the legislature and unseating Hickenlooper.  As it happens, I think that the governor's tremendous vulnerability may draw a lot of top-notch Republicans away from the Senate race.  I think that George Brauchler is pretty much a dream candidate, and I think the threat from him may be sufficiently strong to force Hickenlooper to consider stepping aside for a Salazar or Perlmutter to run instead.

I just don't feel like this is 2010 in Colorado again.  I love Ken Buck, but this doesn't yet feel like the 2010 primary.  If we have learned anything, it's that we need to head into next year more united, and I suspect that exactly that will probably happen.  This race probably still favors Udall, but it looks like it'll be a very good year for Republicans if we can avoid what has become a regular routine of excitement before crashing and burning.