MO: Mason-Dixon: McCaskill-Akin dead heat.

[Keystone Phil]

McCaskill (D) - 45%
Akin (R) - 43%

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/todd-akin-draws-closer-to-claire-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate/article_0eaa7ba3-cac9-54c8-81d7-e29c9bf8ef3b.html

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

lol McCaskill fail!!!


A week away from election day and all you can manage is 45% AGAINST TODD FING AKIN?!!!!


If he wins though, it will be because of Romney's margin in MO and whatever that ends up being. Though because of the pulled money, he will probably be a renegade all six years, who won't be controlled by anyone.

[Lief 🗽]

This poll is pretty Republican-leaning across the board for some reason.

[tmthforu94]

Well, at least he'd only be in there for 6 years - I see either the GOP trying to primary him in 2018.

Unfortunately for McCaskill, most polls seem to show that a majority of undecideds favor Romney.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why, when a poll which looks really like a republican outlier still puts McCaskill ahead, everybody suddenly thinks she's toast?

I mean, OK, it's not a good poll for McCaskill, but the reactions sound kinda like  to me.

[Gass3268]

Missouri will become a national punchline for the next 6 years if they vote for Todd Akin to become their next Senator.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why, when a poll which looks really like a republican outlier still puts McCaskill ahead, everybody suddenly thinks she's toast?

I mean, OK, it's not a good poll for McCaskill, but the reactions sound kinda like  to me.

1) I still think she wins, in the most likely scenario. But she is very lame regardless.

2) Because this is Mason Dixon and if they say something, it is usually taken more seriously then many others out there.

3) The key here is Obama's unpopularity in the state. It makes sense as a possible driving force behind all these results, even reducing Nixon's margins some.

[CountryRoads]

My prediction:

McCaskill: 50.9%
Akin: 48.6%

[Antonio the Sixth]

2) Because this is Mason Dixon and if they say something, it is usually taken more seriously then many others out there.

Fair enough. But in the past 24 days, there have been 6 polls released and none has McCaskill leading by less than 5. 6 polls is a fairly solid consensus even when the polls are of mediocre quality. So it's impossible to assume that the race is that close unless something has changed. So is Obama getting more unpopular in Missouri right now? Or is Akin somehow gaining ground on his own? I don't think that's very likely.

See, I feel like I'm spinning polls and I hate doing that. I think this poll provides some useful information and should absolutely not be dismissed. But I also don't think it erases the amount of information accumulated in the past 3 weeks.

[Holmes]

Well, at least he'd only be in there for 6 years - I see either the GOP trying to primary him in 2018.

You know that six years is a long time, right?

[opebo]

1) I still think she wins, in the most likely scenario. But she is very lame regardless.

Not really.  Its just a bad state, with a lot of bad people.  There's really no way for her to get more than the barest of victories, since after all, a large majority of the state is misogynist anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm starting to believe Akin will win this. Strong ad attacking Claire - http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/27/akin_unveils_new_attack_ad.html

If this is really a two point race right now, stuff like this and the undecideds being strongly for Romney will push him across the finish line.

[Franzl]

I'm starting to believe Akin will win this. Strong ad attacking Claire - http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/27/akin_unveils_new_attack_ad.html

If this is really a two point race right now, stuff like this and the undecideds being strongly for Romney will push him across the finish line.

Didn't Rasmussen of all people have Akin down by 8% or something? Think there were 1-2 other polls showing similar results too.

Don't see what changed in that short period of time.

But regardless, it's not surprising that Missouri is getting closer. It's Missouri, after all.

[Keystone Phil]

There have been a lot of undecideds. We're ten days out. They're coming home.

[Lief 🗽]

McCaskill internal shows her up 14% (http://atr.rollcall.com/competing-polls-as-missouri-senate-race-enters-final-week/). This poll is junk.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also, more importantly, DSCC is scaling back it's spending in Missouri by 1 million.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/10/missouri-dems-c.php

[Keystone Phil]

McCaskill internal shows her up 14% (http://atr.rollcall.com/competing-polls-as-missouri-senate-race-enters-final-week/). This poll is junk.

Yes, McCaskill's poll is junk.

And I didn't know this Post-Dispatch Poll was actually done by Mason-Dixon. All the more reason to believe it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

2) Because this is Mason Dixon and if they say something, it is usually taken more seriously then many others out there.

Fair enough. But in the past 24 days, there have been 6 polls released and none has McCaskill leading by less than 5. 6 polls is a fairly solid consensus even when the polls are of mediocre quality. So it's impossible to assume that the race is that close unless something has changed. So is Obama getting more unpopular in Missouri right now? Or is Akin somehow gaining ground on his own? I don't think that's very likely.

See, I feel like I'm spinning polls and I hate doing that. I think this poll provides some useful information and should absolutely not be dismissed. But I also don't think it erases the amount of information accumulated in the past 3 weeks.

Things have changed:
1) Time - His comments were over two months ago and election day is 10 days away. People are starting to seriously consider the choices and many Republicans are coming home.

2) Priorities - With Republicans looking shakier elsewhere, shear embarrasment pales in comparison to getting as many seats as possible. Bottom line, people are coming home. I said there was a strong possibility that Akin was underpolling because people were too embarrased to admit to supporting him to other people, but in the secrecy of the voting booth, that goes away. Now some don't even care enough to wait for the secrecy to come out for him.

3) Akin is now getting through his message that McCaskill=Obama=Bad. Obama's numbers go down further and more Republicans and even some Republican leaners come home.

4) If Akin Surging becomes the mantra in the local media, that will drive still more people who were too embarrased to acknowledge their support and give some others trully undecided a nudge to the guy who voted no on Obamacare rather than the woman that provided the key vote for it passing.

And then some things that have not changed:
1) Take a look at all those polls and how many of them actually have had McCaskill at or above 50%? I think maybe 1 or 2 have. Most of thme have had her in the mid to high 40's, with bad favorables and bad approvals. She is a too tied to Obama in a state where Obama is not popular to begin with.

2) MO has a history of close races and in a era where there will be fewer of those as MO gets redder, they will take it where they can get it.

[Oakvale]

What a terrible state.

[Brittain33]

McCaskill internal shows her up 14% (http://atr.rollcall.com/competing-polls-as-missouri-senate-race-enters-final-week/). This poll is junk.

Yes, McCaskill's poll is junk.

And I didn't know this Post-Dispatch Poll was actually done by Mason-Dixon. All the more reason to believe it.

Mason-Dixon may be beloved at the Atlas but it flopped in 2008.

Here's a news story where the Las Vegas Review-Journal fired them.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/04/review-journal-flunks-when-it-comes-polls-republic/

[Talleyrand]

I agree the numbers are probably closer to Mason-Dixon's poll than McCaskill's internals, but people here trumpeting the credibility of Mason-Dixon should recall that in their poll of the Missouri Senate Primary, they predicted Akin would come in 3rd place with 17% of the vote, even as he ended up winning with 36% of the vote. 

[morgieb]

The toplines look too R here, so I'm not sure whether I'd completely trust this.

[BM]

If Akin wins Missouri's statehood should be revoked for 6 years.

Also Republicans on this forum can go ahead and admit they're rooting for the rape apologist. Everyone knows it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't recall rooting for anyone in this thread. In fact I believe I stated that McCaskill will probably narrowly win. Unlike some hacks on this forum, I don't let my analysis be clouded by my personal views on a particular election. Last I checked, I was supporting the Libertarian in this race as a protest vote, and stated aggressively that Akin should have withdrawn when he had the chance to do so. But I guess you know my own personal opinions better then I do myself.

[tmthforu94]

If Akin wins Missouri's statehood should be revoked for 6 years.

Also Republicans on this forum can go ahead and admit they're rooting for the rape apologist. Everyone knows it.

Yeah, I hope he wins. If I lived in Missouri, I would have voted for him.