Romney doing better in automated polls, not so good in live polls

[Likely Voter]

In the last week there have been 34 polls done in the nine battleground states. Of those Obama lead in 16, Romney lead in 10 and 8 were tied. However, most of Romney's leads come from automated (IVR polls) which don't contact cellphones (and have lower response rates). Romney only leads in two of the live phone polls and none of the IVR+Web polls (web used for those w/o landlines).

         O    R    T
IVR    5   8   5
IVR+  3   0   1
LIVE  8   2   2


Here are all the polls state by state where you can see a pattern that Obama generally does better in the live phone polls (which are the types of polls the campaigns use internally). This seems especially true in OH.

OH   CBS     Obama +5   [Live]
OH    Time   Obama +5   [Live]
OH   CNN   Obama +4   [Live]
OH   SUSA    Obama +3   [IVR+web]
OH   Purple   Obama +2   [IVR+web]
OH   Suffolk   Tie   [Live]
OH    Rasmussen     Tie   [IVR]

WI   MasonDix   Obama +2   [Live]
WI    Rasmussen     Tie   [IVR]

NV   PPP     Obama +4   [IVR]
NV   NBC    Obama +3   [Live]
NV   Rasmussen     Obama +2   [IVR]
NV   Gravis     Obama +1   [IVR]

NH   UNH   Obama +9   [Live]
NH   NEC   Obama +3   [Live]
NH   Rasmussen     Romney +2   [IVR]

IA   Gravis     Obama +4   [IVR]
IA   Rasmussen     Tie   [IVR]

VA   WaPo   Obama +4   [Live]
VA   Purple   Tie   [IVR+web]
VA   Gravis     Tie   [IVR]
VA   FOX   Romney +2   [Live]
VA   Rasmussen     Romney +2   [IVR]

CO   PPP     Obama +4   [IVR]
CO   Purple     Obama +1   [IVR+web]
CO   NBC    Tie   [Live]
CO   Rasmussen     Romney +4   [IVR]
         
FL    Gravis     Romney +1   [IVR]
FL    PPP     Romney +1   [IVR]
FL   Rasmussen     Romney +2   [IVR]
   
NC   PPP     Tie   [IVR]
NC   Civitas   Romney +1   [Live]
NC   Gravis     Romney +8   [IVR]
NC   Rasmussen     Romney +6   [IVR]
         
Not surprisingly Rasmussen and Gravis account for 7 out of 10 of Romney's leads this week. The other three are an IVR from PPP and live polls from FOX and Civitas(R). Romney didn't lead in a single live phone poll outside of VA or NC (there were none done in FL this week).

[Yank2133]

No worry, he has the momentum.

[J. J.]

I'm not sure I understand the IVR/Live situation.  Romney is doing better in polls that are automated? 

[wan]

No worry, he has the momentum.

Yeh enough momentum to lead in national polls rather than state polls. And win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote. The election is not over yet but it's looking good for obama.

[Likely Voter]

IVR = interactive voice response = automated. Yes Romney does better in automated polling. The two distinguishing characteristics of IVR polling is lower response rates and no inclusion of cellphones.

[J. J.]

IVR = interactive voice response = automated. Yes Romney does better in automated polling. The two distinguishing characteristics of IVR polling is lower response rates and no inclusion of cellphones.

That is interesting.  It might be telling in this election. 

[rockhound]

Bradley effect?

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, people who have no landline phone seem to favor democrats, even when controlling for age/race demographics.  538 had an article on this a while back.  

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It comes down to turnout, I guess. Do we think the kinds of voters who use cell phones as their primary phones are likely to remember to show up and vote?

[J. J.]

Bradley effect?

I think it was there in some states, but not those.  Obama underpolled in NV in 2008. 

Does PPP contact cell phones?  The could be two different factors. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If I was supporting Romney, I'd be too embarrassed to admit it to a live pollster, too.

[memphis]

People still have landlines? Do they put them next to the 8 track and the typewriter?

[Likely Voter]

None of the strict IVR firms can legally contact cell phones, including PPP. Some like SUSA and Purple have added an interactive web component to get to cellphone only people (hence IVR+). The result for IVR firms is their gross samples always start older and whiter than the adult population. They then make their own adjustments to try and compensate for this before applying their LV model. Some may be better than others at trying to turn a sample of landline only people into an accurate sample of America.

The irony is that this issue is a bigger issue this year than any other election and yet the this year also has a proliferation of IVR polling. Most of the state polling on RCP is IVR this year. That wasn't the case in the last two elections. 

This year has also seen the growth of Web polling (like from IPSOS), but RCP doesn't include those. This mainly effects their national polling numbers. Obama does better the web based polling, as can be seen in the regular tracking thread.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also noting that Obama does better when there is a Spanish language option...

[Orion0]

People still have landlines? Do they put them next to the 8 track and the typewriter?

Wow, thats snark worthy of any 13 year old. Regardless of what you may think, most people once they get a job and a house also get a landline. Just because your democrat friends have neither doesn't mean you should continue to stay so ignorant.

[memphis]

People still have landlines? Do they put them next to the 8 track and the typewriter?

Wow, thats snark worthy of any 13 year old. Regardless of what you may think, most people once they get a job and a house also get a landline. Just because your democrat friends have neither doesn't mean you should continue to stay so ignorant.

Not just my friends. Neither of my sixty something year old parents has a landline and they haven't for years.  If you want to throw money away on a product that has zero utility, it's your business. I suppose there are people who buy overcoats in Hawaii too.

[J. J.]

Also noting that Obama does better when there is a Spanish language option...

That was my next question.  Thank you. 

[Likely Voter]

I do not believe that any of the polling companies above has a Spanish language option. There is one company that has done it and shown a marked improvement for Obama. 538 did a blog post on it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote/

[Orion0]

I do not believe that any of the polling companies above has a Spanish language option. There is one company that has done it and shown a marked improvement for Obama. 538 did a blog post on it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote/

Let's get real, English is the official language, and to be a citizen that much knowledge is necessary. To give Spanish language options you are opening the gates to a skew favoring non-voters, or at the very least unlikely voters. In Canada we give English and French options, despite having statistically significant speakers of dozens of languages.

Edit: not "official" language I know, but the language of administration at least.

[J. J.]

Well, the Spanish question is how many native Spanish speakers are fluent in English and do some of them feel more comfortable giving honest answers to a fellow Spanish speaker?

[Lief 🗽]

I do not believe that any of the polling companies above has a Spanish language option. There is one company that has done it and shown a marked improvement for Obama. 538 did a blog post on it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote/

Let's get real, English is the official language, and to be a citizen that much knowledge is necessary. To give Spanish language options you are opening the gates to a skew favoring non-voters, or at the very least unlikely voters. In Canada we give English and French options, despite having statistically significant speakers of dozens of languages.

Edit: not "official" language I know, but the language of administration at least.

Ballots are printed in Spanish in plenty (most? all?) places.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's not an issue of what 'should' be, there are enough people who aren't confident in their English who vote... and are entitled to vote. If polling isn't taking that into consideration - then they're doing themselves a disservice at the very least.

If there's some evidence to suggest that under polling of Latinos, which there is in NV, CO, AZ then it should at least be looked at.

[Adam Griffin]

I do not believe that any of the polling companies above has a Spanish language option. There is one company that has done it and shown a marked improvement for Obama. 538 did a blog post on it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote/

Let's get real, English is the official language, and to be a citizen that much knowledge is necessary. To give Spanish language options you are opening the gates to a skew favoring non-voters, or at the very least unlikely voters. In Canada we give English and French options, despite having statistically significant speakers of dozens of languages.

Yeah, this is just ignorant. I've registered Latinos in my county who couldn't speak English but have Photo IDs/Passports and will be voting in this election. The same ways they use to determine LV in IRV in English can be used in Spanish as well.

[Orion0]

I do not believe that any of the polling companies above has a Spanish language option. There is one company that has done it and shown a marked improvement for Obama. 538 did a blog post on it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote/

Let's get real, English is the official language, and to be a citizen that much knowledge is necessary. To give Spanish language options you are opening the gates to a skew favoring non-voters, or at the very least unlikely voters. In Canada we give English and French options, despite having statistically significant speakers of dozens of languages.

Yeah, this is just ignorant. I've registered Latinos in my county who couldn't speak English but have Photo IDs/Passports and will be voting in this election. The same ways they use to determine LV in IRV in English can be used in Spanish as well.

Oooooh an unverifiable anecdote from a partisan, I'm quaking in me boots. I just don't see people who cannot engage in the mainstream media as being the most reliable voters, period. They may be good candidates for democrats to bus into a polling station and tell them how to vote however...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Um... Apparently is the international symbol for, I'm going to say something prattish, but then pretend it's good natured.