OH-University of Cincinnati Poll: Tied race, 49-49

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If Romney actually manages to win Ohio but doesn't win the "1" from Rove's 3-2-1 strategy, I might just die.

[Reds4]

Definitely Romney's best poll in Ohio in a long time.. as a Buckeye-stater myself I think Obama is the favorite.. but not by nearly as much as some believe.

[dirks]

well well well, in the closing days we're now seeing another major surge towards Romney!

[J. J.]

It is good news, but I am still distrustful of newspaper polls.

[Likely Voter]

well picking up on my post in the other forum, this is a poll with live land lines and cellphones so this is a good result for Romney in that kind of poll.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Are they going to do another poll of this state, or is this the last one?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

well well well, in the closing days we're now seeing another major surge towards Romney!

Not quite, considering more polls have been undertaken here after this one with different results.

[Ty440]

well well well, in the closing days we're now seeing another major surge towards Romney!

I guess the VA Washington Post poll flew right over your head.

Flip VA and Ohio , Romney still loses.

[wan]

This poll may have kept romney in ohio. I could see them leaving ohio next week and flood wisonsin. Don't know now

[DrScholl]

well well well, in the closing days we're now seeing another major surge towards Romney!

The poll is old, it was taken before other polls showed Obama up more. That doesn't constitute a surge. Reading helps.

[dirks]

well well well, in the closing days we're now seeing another major surge towards Romney!

I guess the VA Washington Post poll flew right over your head.

Flip VA and Ohio , Romney still loses.

obumma has no chance in virginia, doesn't matter how many D+7 samples they roll out. Romney has won 6 of the last 9 polls in VA and tied in the other 2. Virginia is fools gold. Go ahead and waste resources there while trying desperately trying to save NH. Not gonna happen. This isn't 2008

[Reds4]

This poll is actually D+3.. which is a very reasonable guess I think.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think people need to relax, one not great poll, and suddenly people are talking about alternative paths? If people are going to have these sorts of reactions for the next 9 days then I would suggest taking up drinking.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It is good news, but I am still distrustful of newspaper polls.

It would've been good news, but it was taken Oct. 18-23, almost entirely after the third debate. It's over a week old and differs greatly from other polls we've seen in the past few days.

[Devils30]

And its not 2000 and 2004 in Virginia either

[Likely Voter]

well this is a good result for Romney as (noted in my other thread) he hasn't been doing as well in live phone polls, especially in OH.

[wan]

well well well, in the closing days we're now seeing another major surge towards Romney!

The poll is old, it was taken before other polls showed Obama up more. That doesn't constitute a surge. Reading helps.

In reality i would say obama has a 3-4 point lead in ohio.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If the Romney camp takes a five day old poll like this as good news, that's a very, very good sign.

dirks' buttfrustration is also enjoyable, as always.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

This poll could be accurate for where the race was at that time. Gravis and Suffold both had the race tied in polling from the 18th-19th and 18th-21st, Rasmussen had it tied on the 23rd and PPP had Obama up 1 the 18th-20th. BUT CBS/Quinnipiac had Obama up 5 the 17th through the 20th, Survey USA had him up 3 the 20th-22nd and TIME had him up 5 the 22nd-23rd.
So in that 5 day time period the race was as follows:
3 Ties
4 Obama Leads
It appears the later the poll, the more positive it was for President oabama, and the earlier the better for Governor Romney. So Romney was still surging until about the 20th, and his momentum stopped and Obama re-opened up his lead in the state.

Honestly, I'd wait for a Columbus Dispath Poll before we jump to any conclusions.

[Yank2133]

well well well, in the closing days we're now seeing another major surge towards Romney!

The poll is old, it was taken before other polls showed Obama up more. That doesn't constitute a surge. Reading helps.

In reality i would say obama has a 3-4 point lead in ohio.

No.....Obama is likely up about 2 points.

BTW, 80% of the sample is pre-third debate.

[Devils30]

The dispatch poll is a mail-in one. Questionable method there.

[cinyc]

Why did they take so long to release this?

This poll was done for a consortium of Ohio newspapers.  On what day are the largest, most-read newspapers sold?  Sunday.  The poll was embargoed until then.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The dispatch poll is a mail-in one. Questionable method there.

Which almost guarantees higher turnout on both sides. Plus, they got the closest of predicting the actual results in 2008.

Columbus Dispatch   10/22 - 10/31   2164 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6

Final Results                                                             51.5   46.9   Obama +4.6

[Tender Branson]

Let's hope they poll again next week ...

[Ty440]

Has anyone hunted down any cross-tabs ?