Latino Decisions: Week 11. Obama 73, Romney 21

[afleitch]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Tracker-toplines-week-10.pdf

[Holmes]

This would help Obama seal the deal in NV/NM/CO.

[Ljube]

I don't understand this. They say that the most important issue for them is Create more jobs/Fix the economy 54%. Yet, they still support Obama who is never going to create a single job/fix the economy.

Maybe the most telling is the answer to the question: Who is to blame?
The majority says Bush 64%. It seems they are very disappointed in Bush having voted him two times in office. He really failed them miserably.

They say then that fighting in Congress is most to blame for economy not improving more quickly 64%. Yet they still want to reelect Obama and continue the fighting in Congress.


They get the basics wrong on many other vital topics, but here is the absolute gem:
Thinking about the future of our economy, which party do you trust more to make the right decisions and improve our economic conditions? Obama and Democrats 73%

[President von Cat]

Ljube, the chickens have come home to roost..

[Yank2133]

I don't understand this. They say that the most important issue for them is Create more jobs/Fix the economy 54%. Yet, they still support Obama who is never going to create a single job/fix the economy.

Maybe the most telling is the answer to the question: Who is to blame?
The majority says Bush 64%. It seems they are very disappointed in Bush having voted him two times in office. He really failed them miserably.

They say then that fighting in Congress is most to blame for economy not improving more quickly 64%. Yet they still want to reelect Obama and continue the fighting in Congress.


They get the basics wrong on many other vital topics, but here is the absolute gem:
Thinking about the future of our economy, which party do you trust more to make the right decisions and improve our economic conditions? Obama and Democrats 73%

Republicans have lost the economic message about 30 years ago.

The economy does  better under Democrats and Latinos realizes that.

[old timey villain]

I don't understand this. They say that the most important issue for them is Create more jobs/Fix the economy 54%. Yet, they still support Obama who is never going to create a single job/fix the economy.

Maybe the most telling is the answer to the question: Who is to blame?
The majority says Bush 64%. It seems they are very disappointed in Bush having voted him two times in office. He really failed them miserably.

They say then that fighting in Congress is most to blame for economy not improving more quickly 64%. Yet they still want to reelect Obama and continue the fighting in Congress.


They get the basics wrong on many other vital topics, but here is the absolute gem:
Thinking about the future of our economy, which party do you trust more to make the right decisions and improve our economic conditions? Obama and Democrats 73%

You pretty much answered your own question. This is exactly why Latinos and other minorities don't vote Republican. They'd rather not vote for people who lecture them on what they should care about.

[Torie]

I highly doubt the Mittens Hispanic performance will be this awful. 30% is more like it. We shall see (to the extent it can reasonably be measured at all once the votes are all counted and analyzed).

[opebo]

I highly doubt the Mittens Hispanic performance will be this awful. 30% is more like it.

Why would you doubt that?  They really dislike the anti-Hispanic party, and he's an out of touch rich to boot.

[Likely Voter]

I hope  President Obama remembers to say "gracias" in his victory speech

[Landslide Lyndon]

I highly doubt the Mittens Hispanic performance will be this awful. 30% is more like it. We shall see (to the extent it can reasonably be measured at all once the votes are all counted and analyzed).

This isn't the first poll showing Obama breaking 70% with Hispanics.
Not something unexpected when he runs against a candidate who opposes the DREAM act and promoted the concept of self-deportation.

[ag]

I highly doubt the Mittens Hispanic performance will be this awful. 30% is more like it. We shall see (to the extent it can reasonably be measured at all once the votes are all counted and analyzed).

I wonder, if there will be data to see the regional breakdown. Outside of Florida it may well be that bad.

[ag]

I hope  President Obama remembers to say "gracias" in his victory speech

I am pretty sure he won't forget that

[RI]

If this were true uniformly outside of Florida, Obama would win Arizona.

[opebo]

If this were true uniformly outside of Florida, Obama would win Arizona.

Really?  Wouldn't he still need like 38-39% of whites?  The electorate of Arizona must be like 65% non-hispanic white, isn't it?

[Lief 🗽]

If this were true uniformly outside of Florida, Obama would win Arizona.

Arizona will be very close, mark my words.

[Franzl]

If this were true uniformly outside of Florida, Obama would win Arizona.

Arizona will be very close, mark my words.

I don't really think it will...but I wouldn't completely rule out something similar to Nevada 2008 (outperforming every opinion poll by a lot). Won't be enough, of course, even if.

[opebo]

If this were true uniformly outside of Florida, Obama would win Arizona.

Arizona will be very close, mark my words.

I don't really think it will...but I wouldn't completely rule out something similar to Nevada 2008 (outperforming every opinion poll by a lot). Won't be enough, of course, even if.

Yeah I also don't think it will be all that close.. its supposed to be about 57.4% white... and that's just the census figure, I guess the electorate must be far, far whiter than that.  I guess it'll be like 53-46, maybe 52-47 at best.

[SPQR]

I don't understand this. They say that the most important issue for them is Create more jobs/Fix the economy 54%. Yet, they still support Obama who is never going to create a single job/fix the economy.

Maybe the most telling is the answer to the question: Who is to blame?
The majority says Bush 64%. It seems they are very disappointed in Bush having voted him two times in office. He really failed them miserably.

They say then that fighting in Congress is most to blame for economy not improving more quickly 64%. Yet they still want to reelect Obama and continue the fighting in Congress.


They get the basics wrong on many other vital topics, but here is the absolute gem:
Thinking about the future of our economy, which party do you trust more to make the right decisions and improve our economic conditions? Obama and Democrats 73%

You pretty much answered your own question. This is exactly why Latinos and other minorities don't vote Republican. They'd rather not vote for people who lecture them on what they should care about.

[Eraserhead]

Didn't Clinton break 70% with hispanics in '96?

[sobo]

As much as I want to believe this poll, on the very first question it asks "what are the most important issues facing the Hispanic community ..." you just can't ask stuff like that before the horserace question.

[Ty440]

Do Republicans on here realize that Romney can crush Obama with  the white vote by 23 points 61-38- 1% other  and if Obama gets 73% of Hispanics and 95% of blacks that entire  lead gets wiped out?

[pbrower2a]

I don't understand this. They say that the most important issue for them is Create more jobs/Fix the economy 54%. Yet, they still support Obama who is never going to create a single job/fix the economy.

Maybe the most telling is the answer to the question: Who is to blame?
The majority says Bush 64%. It seems they are very disappointed in Bush having voted him two times in office. He really failed them miserably.

They say then that fighting in Congress is most to blame for economy not improving more quickly 64%. Yet they still want to reelect Obama and continue the fighting in Congress.


They get the basics wrong on many other vital topics, but here is the absolute gem:
Thinking about the future of our economy, which party do you trust more to make the right decisions and improve our economic conditions? Obama and Democrats 73%

My take:

1. It used to be understood that Latinos were far poorer than the US average. But there is now a large Latino middle class heavily urban and well-educated, effectively an intelligentsia. It remains able to connect with not-so-rich Latinos, much unlike middle-class white intelligentsia who can't relate effectively to poor whites. (Non-white and non-Christian intelligentsia also contrast in their political influence toward the poor of their own ethnicity and religion to white people). Such makes a huge difference in political realities between white Christians and about every other economic group in voting.

2. Latinos remain majority-Catholic. To be sure the Religious Right has made some headway into the Latino population, but not enough to break the Catholic culture. The Catholic Church is quite rational  -- much more than is so for Protestant Fundamentalists -- on science and history. Poor Catholic Latinos, unlike Protestant Fundamentalists of similar economic achievement, more respect formal education. The difference in valuation of education between Latinos and Anglo whites in the lower strata of economic achievement makes a huge difference in political attitudes. Latinos see formal education and the government necessary for it vital to their dreams; Anglo whites, to the extent that they are Protestant Fundamentalists, see formal education as a threat to their culture as well as part of the 'problem' of Big Government spending.

Poor white Protestant Fundamentalists, who at times have been exemplars of populist tendencies that go far to the Left, are now about as Right-leaning as the Master Class of tycoons, executives, and big landowners who can reach out to such people as they cannot reach out to the middle class.    

4. Although President Obama is clearly non-Hispanic, he is capable of playing to non-white, non-Christian, and non-Anglo populations very well. He has assimilated into the black middle class, but its values are close to those of the Latino middle class. Bingo!        

[RI]

If this were true uniformly outside of Florida, Obama would win Arizona.

Really?  Wouldn't he still need like 38-39% of whites?  The electorate of Arizona must be like 65% non-hispanic white, isn't it?

Obama got 40% of Arizona whites in 2008.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The white vote in AZ is very old, and therefore very likely to show up.  54-45, I do not expect AZ to be close.  Obama will win big amongst AZ Hispanics, but the voting pop. will not be a representative sample. 

Whites in AZ = old
Hispanics in AZ = young

Olds show up, youngs don't. 

[J. J.]

I highly doubt the Mittens Hispanic performance will be this awful. 30% is more like it. We shall see (to the extent it can reasonably be measured at all once the votes are all counted and analyzed).

Three other polls were showing it substantially better.  What is Latino Decision's track record?