2012 county results - Uniform swing by state now calculated

[Averroës Nix]

I haven't seen any maps like this yet this year. I thought that one would be an interesting jumping off point for a discussion of the geographic trends that we'll see in this year's actual results.

Today's FiveThirtyEight nowcast predicts a 2.5 point swing away from Obama (50.4%) and a 3 point swing toward Romney (48.7%). If this swing were perfectly uniform across the country, the results of the election would look like this:



Note: The results shown here are incorrect for a few independent cities that share a name with the surrounding county (Baltimore, Saint Louis, and several in Virginia). You'll also notice that several of New York City's borough's are missing. Except for Staten Island, we're not missing anything that would be interesting at this scale.

EDIT: Here's a map that assumes a uniform swing by state, also using the most current set of Silver's number. Note that I used the projected results rather than the nowcast results for this map.

[Penelope]

Oh man, that's really awesome.

But I'm surprised to see such a high number of Democratic counties in WI.

[opebo]

Oh man, that's really awesome.

But I'm surprised to see such a high number of Democratic counties in WI.

Yeah I'm even more surprised that there are so many counties in Lake Michigan.

[DemPGH]

Not based on anything scientific, but that 50.4 - 48.7 sounds really reasonable. If anyone has ever been in the plains, that deep, hard blue fits well. You'll see as many prairie dogs as people! And maybe some of the prairie dogs vote. . .

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If there's a swing, how uniform will it be? Is the urban/rural split still widening?

[Brittain33]

Oh man, that's really awesome.

But I'm surprised to see such a high number of Democratic counties in WI.

Those counties are going to swing a lot more than the nation.

[Averroës Nix]

Oh man, that's really awesome.

But I'm surprised to see such a high number of Democratic counties in WI.

Yeah I'm even more surprised that there are so many counties in Lake Michigan.

I've adjusted the map to make it more readable.

[5280]

3 pt swing?  I think it will be a larger swing, but whatever. It's 538.

[Averroës Nix]

3 pt swing?  I think it will be a larger swing, but whatever. It's 538.

If you think that a larger swing is probable, give me a number for each candidate and I'll map it. It doesn't take long.

[5280]

3 pt swing?  I think it will be a larger swing, but whatever. It's 538.

If you think that a larger swing is probable, give me a number for each candidate and I'll map it. It doesn't take long.

Try a 9 point swing.

[SetonHallPirate]

3 pt swing?  I think it will be a larger swing, but whatever. It's 538.

If you think that a larger swing is probable, give me a number for each candidate and I'll map it. It doesn't take long.

Try a 9 point swing.

So you're saying Romney will win the popular vote by 11 points? Wow...you're bold!

[5280]

3 pt swing?  I think it will be a larger swing, but whatever. It's 538.

If you think that a larger swing is probable, give me a number for each candidate and I'll map it. It doesn't take long.

Try a 9 point swing.

So you're saying Romney will win the popular vote by 11 points? Wow...you're bold!

What's the swing back to 2004 numbers for a Romney win?

[Wonkish1]

Oh man, that's really awesome.

But I'm surprised to see such a high number of Democratic counties in WI.

I can say with with very, very high confidence that the Wisconsin map will look a lot more like it has in the past than it did in 2008(and like you have up there). It will once again be a sea of GOP with a few populous counties being heavily Dem.

Obama will lose a much higher percentage of the vote in those rural counties, but they alone will only only change the overall % a little bit. The outcome will still mostly rest on more populous counties in the East and Southeast.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Holy direct swing, Batman! That won't be the county map, I guarantee it.

[Wonkish1]

Holy direct swing, Batman! That won't be the county map, I guarantee it.

No kidding.

Take all counties with a population under 10,000 and assign a 10-15% swing than assign the balance to the remainder of counties(which would probably be ~2.0 and ~2.5 respectively) and you'll likely have a closer representation of the map.

[Averroës Nix]

To be completely clear, I'm not posting these maps as "predictions." I hope that everyone realizes this.

I'm uploading a ten point swing map; it'll be posted within a couple of minutes. I would like to see what Wonkish's suggestion looks like, so I'll be doing that next.

[5280]

To be completely clear, I'm not posting these maps as "predictions." I hope that everyone realizes this.

I'm uploading a five point swing map; it'll be posted within a couple of minutes.

What are you using to post these maps?

[Averroës Nix]

Here's a uniform five point swing.

To be completely clear, I'm not posting these maps as "predictions." I hope that everyone realizes this.

I'm uploading a five point swing map; it'll be posted within a couple of minutes.

What are you using to post these maps?

ArcGIS.

[5280]

Here's a uniform five point swing.

To be completely clear, I'm not posting these maps as "predictions." I hope that everyone realizes this.

I'm uploading a five point swing map; it'll be posted within a couple of minutes.

What are you using to post these maps?

ArcGIS.

Post a 9 pt swing for the heck of it, just curious.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Also, 538's Pennsylvania analysis just called the Southwest a bastion of "Reagan Democrats". This is hilariously untrue.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There's no such thing as a Reagan Democrat.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

There's no such thing as a Reagan Democrat.

At least not in SWPA--Carter and Mondale both swept the region in 1980 and 1984.

[Averroës Nix]

The Wonkish map (large swing in low-population counties):



The 5280 map (nine-point swing toward Romney):

[Averroës Nix]

FYI, other counties are unaffected, but the results shown here are incorrect for a few ndependent cities that share a name with the surrounding county (Baltimore, Saint Louis, and several in Virginia). You'll also notice that several of New York City's borough's are missing. Except for Staten Island, we're not missing anything that would be interesting at this scale.

[Wonkish1]

The Wonkish map (large swing in low-population counties):



The 5280 map (nine-point swing toward Romney):

Sorry I probably should have actually looked up population numbers before I said 10,000. I just looked up a bunch of county populations and a lot of rural counties clock in at 20-40k hence why the map didn't change. For some reason I was thinking closer to turnout numbers while saying population numbers.

How about:

Population(not turnout like I was thinking before):
Under 20,000 15 pt swing
Between 20,000 and 40,000 10 pt swing
Between 40,000 and 60,000 5 pt swing

Balance added to remaining counties which is actually probably a lot closer to 2 and 2.5 respectively than my last request(which probably didn't affect more than 2% of the counties nation wide).

Sorry about that.