Iowa Hawkeye poll: romney +1

[Cliffy]

45-44

http://now.uiowa.edu/2012/10/tight-race

[Speed of Sound]

I know nothing about this Uni and don't see another poll by them in the Atlas register, so I'm gonna say trash it, unless someone else knows something about their credibility.

[Ty440]

Cliffy where you been hiding my friend?

[Speed of Sound]

Cliffy where you been hiding my friend?

Finally sobering up after a long long morning with the Captain, I imagine.

[Gass3268]

Just another data point, throw it in the average.

[Lief 🗽]

Cool uni poll with a 302-person sample size, bro.

[Ljube]

Forget about Iowa polls.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

"Obama has a slight lead in Iowa among all respondents, with 42.7 percent of the vote to 41.0 percent for Romney, with 10.5 percent undecided and 5.8 percent preferring a third party candidate. Romney leads among likely voters, though, with 45.2 percent of the vote compared to 44.4 percent for Obama, with 6 percent undecided and 4.3 percent preferring a third party candidate. The margin of error for the survey of 320 Iowans is 5.6 percent."

hmmmmm.... yea.  Wish we had some history on these guys. 

[Fargobison]

From what I can tell their last 2008 poll was Obama +13.8.

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2008/october/102708battleground_poll.html

[Gass3268]

Cool uni poll with a 302-person sample size, bro.

Yikes, the margin of error is more then 5.5 then.

[krazen1211]

Great news!

[Skill and Chance]

This is believable IMO.  Early voting suggests IA is on a knife's edge right now.

[Likely Voter]

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won IA. Polling in IA in 2008 wasn't very good, final RCP avg was way off.

[Seriously?]

This is believable IMO.  Early voting suggests IA is on a knife's edge right now.

I don't like the sample size, but you are right about the early voting in Iowa. Could be one of the closest states of the night come Tuesday.

[Skill and Chance]

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won IA. Polling in IA in 2008 wasn't very good, final RCP avg was way off.

And it was biased toward Obama substantially, nearly as much as CO and NV polling was biased against him.

[Likely Voter]

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won IA. Polling in IA in 2008 wasn't very good, final RCP avg was way off.

And it was biased toward Obama substantially, nearly as much as CO and NV polling was biased against him.

Looking closer it appears it was those last 3 polls in 2008. Obama had a 10-11 pt lead for Sept-Oct up until Halloween, but then Des Moines Register, SUSA and Research 2000  jumped in with huge Obama leads pushing him to an avg of +15.3. The last poll before those 3 (Marist Obama+10) actually got it right.

[J. J.]

This is believable IMO.  Early voting suggests IA is on a knife's edge right now.

Agreed

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Problem for Romney is that since Obama looks to have locked down both Nevada and Ohio, Iowa doesn't matter all that much for him any more.  Even if you give Romney every other swing state, you get this map with Obama still at 271 EV:

Romney needs one of MI, WI, MI, or PA to fall his way somehow, and if they do, then he wins even if loses Iowa. About the only thing Iowa is good for now is insurance in case he doesn't get New Hampshire as the above map indicates.  Either the poll consensus needs to be wrong or something needs to move the needle for Romney in the next five days.

It looks like Romney needs to convert to Catholicism, as he needs a Hail Mary now.

[J. J.]

Problem for Romney is that since Obama looks to have locked down both Nevada and Ohio, Iowa doesn't matter all that much for him any more.  Even if you give Romney every other swing state, you get this map with Obama still at 271 EV:

Romney needs one of MI, WI, MI, or PA to fall his way somehow, and if they do, then he wins even if loses Iowa. About the only thing Iowa is good for now is insurance in case he doesn't get New Hampshire as the above map indicates.  Either the poll consensus needs to be wrong or something needs to move the needle for Romney in the next five days.

It looks like Romney needs to convert to Catholicism, as he needs a Hail Mary now.

I think you make the wrong assumption when you assume that Obama has a lock on OH.  WI is the other possibility. 

[Zanas]

WI never was, is not, and never will be a possibility.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think you make the wrong assumption when you assume that Obama has a lock on OH.  WI is the other possibility. 

Let me put this in terms that hopefully even a Mensa member can understand.  If all the Ohio polls are so wrong that Obama loses Ohio, he'll be losing the election as a whole, because it'll be doubtful that pollsters got only Ohio wring.  Besides, isn't one of your precious rules something along the lines of if a campaign is badmouthing the polls, it's losing?

[Seriously?]

WI never was, is not, and never will be a possibility.

Tell that to President Obama, who is headed there twice in the last five days of the campaign.

Either the internals are telling him that he needs to get to WI to shore up some "soft" support or the margin is too close for comfort. In either scenario, WI is in play.

[Eraserhead]

Hey, Obama leads among Independents in this poll! Aren't you Republicans always screaming about how they're going to be the deciding factor in this thing?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

WI never was, is not, and never will be a possibility.

Tell that to President Obama, who is headed there twice in the last five days of the campaign.

Either the internals are telling him that he needs to get to WI to shore up some "soft" support or the margin is too close for comfort. In either scenario, WI is in play.

As I pointed out to you in another thread, Wisconsin is a twofer state, with a Presidential race that looks solidly Obama, but not 100% certain, combined with a very close Senate race.  If there was no Senate race, or it was a lock for either Baldwin or Thompson, I doubt Obama would be spending time there.

[Seriously?]

WI never was, is not, and never will be a possibility.

Tell that to President Obama, who is headed there twice in the last five days of the campaign.

Either the internals are telling him that he needs to get to WI to shore up some "soft" support or the margin is too close for comfort. In either scenario, WI is in play.

As I pointed out to you in another thread, Wisconsin is a twofer state, with a Presidential race that looks solidly Obama, but not 100% certain, combined with a very close Senate race.  If there was no Senate race, or it was a lock for either Baldwin or Thompson, I doubt Obama would be spending time there.

We can agree to disagree on that one. Conventional wisdom would suggest otherwise. There's only a limited amount of political capital to be expended at this time in the campaign. I doubt the Obama campaign is that overconfident of a victory where they are looking at downstream races, even if they are two-fers.