Will the Republicans try for New Jersey in 2008?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I say no, and if they do they're just wasting money.

Despite Bush's fairly impressive gains, he had an almost perfect alignment. 9/11 + the McGreevy fiasco + NJ has a bit of a pro-incumbent bias like Hawaii (check the old results and especially compare 1992 to 1996)

Despite all of that Kerry still won bya decent margin. While the results may look encouraging to Republicans, it's tough to see how they could pull off winning NJ in 2008.

[Erc]

If they win the Governor's race or a Senate Seat, then they'll probably try.  Especially if it's a non-Southerner on the ticket (remember, up until recently, NJ was a Republican-leaning state...Bush Sr. came within 2 points of winning the state).

More likely, they'll give it just about as much of a stab as they did this year (enough to put a bit of fear into the Democrats)...and still lose the state, barring a solid 3-4 pt victory in the national PV.

[Rob]

The 2008 Democratic nominee should carry New Jersey by 10 points or more. Like BRTD said, 2004 was perfect for Bush, and Kerry still won easily.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

A Republican like Guiliani or McCain could put up a fight here, but NJ is solidly liberal socially and more of center economically (thanks to the rich s in North Jersey).  So unless the Republicans nominate a true social liberal, which they never will, they have no shot in NJ outside of a landslide. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Simple answer- NO!  Pennsylvania may be taxing for them as well.  Remember Bush made what 50 trips here and STILL lost.  Any president that devotes that much time shoudl have won the state handily.  McCain could win PA easily, but other than him, I don't see the GOP getting too comfy in the mid-Atlantic region.

[Cashcow]

They might, and they'll lose.

[Frodo]

i'd say no.  New Jersey is trending Democratic, and has been since the late '80s.  there is no reason to expect why it won't follow the course of other states in the Northeast. 

[J.R. Brown]

I dont think they'd waste their time there.

[Alcon]

Here's the thing:

If they win New Jersey, it won't matter.

[Smash255]

Here's the thing:

If they win New Jersey, it won't matter.

outside of a landslide the only Republicans that could win NJ, would never make it past the primarry (Giuliani)

[Akno21]

Here's the thing:

If they win New Jersey, it won't matter.

That's not neccessarily true. If the Dems go with something like Bredesen/Reid and the GOP goes Rudy/Coleman, I see a very odd electoral map.

[A18]

If you're the kind of person who thinks a decisive win is a landslide, then yes, the Republicans would need to win in a landslide to carry New Jersey.

[Keystone Phil]

Simple answer- NO!  Pennsylvania may be taxing for them as well.  Remember Bush made what 50 trips here and STILL lost.  Any president that devotes that much time shoudl have won the state handily.  McCain could win PA easily, but other than him, I don't see the GOP getting too comfy in the mid-Atlantic region.

I ask members to notice who brings up PA in every topic. Anyway...

The GOP will look at NJ and I think they can win the state. Would I put it in the tossup category right now? No. However, with alittle more money/effort, the GOP can take the Garden State in '08.

[phk]

The GOP maxed out New Jersey in 2004.

[AuH2O]

I actually think the GOP will take NJ in 2008 but that assumes a substantial national win, and I've been wrong before. I was also right enough to make a couple grand off the 2004 election, but I didn't do as well as I wanted by a longshot.

If things are going well by 2008... US out of Iraq, which is democratic, terrorists on the run, economy doing well, etc., then essentially the Democratic Party will have no actually chance of winning. The fear is already building, I've noticed, though not specifically with regard to the next Presidential race.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

What exactly do you base a republican win in NJ on?  Bush went max on terrorism and security while the NJ Democratic party was in a mess and they lost by 6 pts.  How about social issues?  Cause when I think social conservatism, I think my home state.  Economic issues?  No, we are nearly all middle class. 

You would have to have Guiliani, whose views don't fit in with the majority of the republican party at all, go up against a southern democrat, whose views don't necessarily match the more liberal majority.  A lot that wont happen would have to happen to give the republicans even a chance in NJ.  I don't think most republicans win here in a landslide.  Bush got every vote in NJ he could get, believe me. 

[AuH2O]

Believe me, he didn't. Ask Walter Mondale. In any case, like I said, I'm assuming a not-particularly-close election.

Really, it's quite rare to have even 2 tight contests in a row. With Bush's aggressive agenda, either the results will be mixed and the Republican disassociates himself from Bush, or Bush will succeed and the Democrat Party will face a total defeat. In the former case, it will be a tough race. In the latter, the GOP should win over 40 states.

[Moooooo]

US out of Iraq, which is democratic, terrorists on the run, economy doing well, etc.,

Thats an awful lot of assuming.  If the Republicans can do all that Id propose not running a Democratic candidate in 2008.  You could just as easily assume if the US is still in Iraq, Iraq is a baby Iran, soldiers are still dying, the terrorists are still bombing, and the economy isnt doing so good etc...  The democrats could be in very good shape.  I guess we'll have to wait and see. 

[ATFFL]

The Republicans would also be helped if they had a major, popular statewide official who can tout the candidate without the candidate actually being present in the state.

Would I bet on the Republicans winning NJ righ tnow?  Only if the payoff was in the 100-1 range.

[Reignman]

Bring it on!

[Defarge]

Excluding a landslide, Rudy is the only candidate who could feasbily win NJ, and even then it's a stretch.

[ian]

They will and they should.

[Gustaf]

I kind of doubt Republicans will have much chance in NJ. They're gonna go for the Upper Midwest, but mostly the GOP can just defend the states they have right now, which is most likely what they'll be doing by and large.

[DanielX]

The Republicans could try for NJ, but i doubt it, unless the Democrat didn't do so well. Probably best for Republicans to defend what they have now (Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa are vulnerable), plus target close states. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are good. New Hampshire would be a good re-gain - although i'm not sure if demographic trends are right. Michigan and Minnesota are maybes. New Jersey could work, but it'd be about as likely as Oregon at the moment.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Why even bother?  Solidify IA, and tip MN into our column.  Then we can work on MI and PA.  If we can do that, then Dems will become essentially Greens, a nuisance, but nothing more.