Karl Rove predicts Romney victory with 279

[Ljube]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop


I guess it's this map:

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Good for Karl Rove.

[Gass3268]

Doesn't he do this every election?

[Speed of Sound]

Noted along with a million other pundits' predictions. Almost nothing we have suggests that of all maps, really, but I suppose it's worth noting if we're also posting Dick Morris' senile ramblings and what feel there was to Chuck Todd's voice when he gave opinions this morning (okay, I made up that last one).

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I think the election will be a bit closer than current polls are showing (temporary bump+enthusiasm gap--see Dole outperforming polls in 96), but Obama still wins in the 285-300 range or so. Ohio is close on paper, but effectively a lock due to the early vote factor.

This is laughable, of course.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

This is laughable, of course.

I fail to see how this is laughable. Romney winning Colorado is, to me, very clear, and New Hampshire is a coin toss (like Virginia). The only thing on this map that I find slightly implausible is his giving Ohio to the GOP.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Rove normally has reasonable maps, unlike Dick Morris. I'm surprised at his prediction.

[Inmate Trump]

I like to hear/read his explanation for this map.  Ohio is only a small possibility...very, very small.  The slimmest of chances that Romney pulls out a win there.  Recent Colorado polls are admittedly too close to call but seem to be tilting back toward Obama's favor, after having been in Romney's column for about a month.  New Hampshire probably won't go to Romney, even though it'll be close; polls just don't suggest it.

I would say he's probably correct about Virginia, North Carolina and Florida all going to Romney though.

EDIT: Nevermind, I'm reading his explanation now.  Still not sure I buy it though...

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I think the election will be a bit closer than current polls are showing (temporary bump+enthusiasm gap--see Dole outperforming polls in 96), but Obama still wins in the 285-300 range or so. Ohio is close on paper, but effectively a lock due to the early vote factor.

This is laughable, of course.

1996 overestimated Clinton nationally, but the state polls were largely on point.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

This is laughable, of course.

I fail to see how this is laughable. Romney winning Colorado is, to me, very clear, and New Hampshire is a coin toss (like Virginia). The only thing on this map that I find slightly implausible is his giving Ohio to the GOP.

OH is a lock at this point (I'll give you CO thanks to early voting there and NH because it bounces off the walls in every election), and Virginia is looking to be tilt Obama.

[Paul Kemp]

This map really isn't out of the realm of possibility...

[Chaddyr23]

This is laughable, of course.

I fail to see how this is laughable. Romney winning Colorado is, to me, very clear, and New Hampshire is a coin toss (like Virginia). The only thing on this map that I find slightly implausible is his giving Ohio to the GOP.

Well that does change the outcome of the election!!

Anyways, he's usually on point with his predictions. Hope they aren't true!!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I just read his argument, and he has a slight point when pointing to history. I guess we will see if history repeats itself this cycle or if a new trend begins. I wouldn't call Ohio a "lock" at this point. Anyone who says it's a lock should simply be ignored. We have no idea how things will turnout on election day. This race is a tossup. I think it means Obama, but hardly a "lock" for anyone.

[J. J.]

I have it at 285, but my early prediction matched this. 

[Torie]

I have it at 285, but my early prediction matched this. 

Well, yes, my intuition tells me that if Mittens manages to carry Ohio, he will get Iowa too. Just a wild guess.

[Ljube]

I have it at 285, but my early prediction matched this. 

Well, yes, my intuition tells me that if Mittens manages to carry Ohio, he will get Iowa too. Just a wild guess.

He would have been one vote closer to getting it if you had voted there.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I have it at 285, but my early prediction matched this. 

Map or I'm not buying it. 

[minionofmidas]

[Silent Hunter]

He's got skin in the game (IIRC), so he's hardly likely to predict a loss.

[Gass3268]

I think this is Rove's attempt to show Romney's most realist chance of winning. I don't know how anyone can look at the Ohio polls and feel great about Romney's chances.

[J. J.]

I have it at 285, but my early prediction matched this. 

Map or I'm not buying it. 

I've only moved one state to Romney since the first debate, IA. 

[J. J.]

I have it at 285, but my early prediction matched this. 

Well, yes, my intuition tells me that if Mittens manages to carry Ohio, he will get Iowa too. Just a wild guess.

I could actually see Romney winning IA and losing OH.  

[Lief 🗽]

Like when he said Bush would 320 EV in 2000 or the GOP would hold on to the House based on "the numbers" in 2006.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think this is Rove's attempt to show Romney's most realist chance of winning. I don't know how anyone can look at the Ohio polls and feel great about Romney's chances.

Surely this is the most realistic though...

[milhouse24]

I thought Ohio Early voting actually favored Romney due to lower Obama turnout than 2008.