Gallup predicts unemployment to fall to 7.0%

[Cliffy]

Read up http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-07/gallup-goes-town-bls-massagery

gallup actually is promoting a different method altogether to measure UE because of problems with the current method.  It's not as simple as you seem to think that it correlates to Gallup's polling, this is more of a problem with BLS data and calculations.  

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[TJ in Oregon]

Here's to hoping they get both this and their tracking poll right

[Speed of Sound]

For it to drop that much, there would have to be at least 500k to 1 million jobs created in October.  I call this BS.

As has been noted in this thread, multiple times.

I, too, don't believe a word of it, but I'll dream of it tonight and see what tomorrow's numbers say. No point in fretting on Gallup.

[King]

Read up http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-07/gallup-goes-town-bls-massagery

gallup actually is promoting a different method altogether to measure UE because of problems with the current method.  It's not as simple as you seem to think that it correlates to Gallup's polling, this is more of a problem with BLS data and calculations.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, what you're saying is that Gallup believes their unemployment data to be far superior to the BLS method and that far superior method show a 0.9 drop in unemployment?

Glorious news!

[Yank2133]

For it to drop that much, there would have to be at least 500k to 1 million jobs created in October.  I call this BS.

True.....or there were a ton of revisions the past 3-4 months.

[Cliffy]

No they are using the BLS method for the number they are projecting.  They do a poll based on the BLS methodology with a smaller sample.  They argue that the BLS methodology is flawed and propose a different method to be used. 

Read up http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-07/gallup-goes-town-bls-massagery

gallup actually is promoting a different method altogether to measure UE because of problems with the current method.  It's not as simple as you seem to think that it correlates to Gallup's polling, this is more of a problem with BLS data and calculations.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, what you're saying is that Gallup believes their unemployment data to be far superior to the BLS method and that far superior method show a 0.9 drop in unemployment?

Glorious news!

[King]

No they are using the BLS method for the number they are projecting.  They do a poll based on the BLS methodology with a smaller sample.  They argue that the BLS methodology is flawed and propose a different method to be used. 

Read up http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-07/gallup-goes-town-bls-massagery

gallup actually is promoting a different method altogether to measure UE because of problems with the current method.  It's not as simple as you seem to think that it correlates to Gallup's polling, this is more of a problem with BLS data and calculations.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, what you're saying is that Gallup believes their unemployment data to be far superior to the BLS method and that far superior method show a 0.9 drop in unemployment?

Glorious news!

So then the BLS is also going to show a drop to 7.0%?

Tremendous news!

[Adam Griffin]

For it to drop that much, there would have to be at least 500k to 1 million jobs created in October.  I call this BS.

Or a ton of people simultaneously dropping out of the workforce. Was there a downturn six months ago? BLS formula doesn't count people who have been looking for six months plus.

[Devils30]

Sadly this data is probably as good as their polls have been

[Cliffy]

They are estimating that the BLS might be at 7.4 if I read it right.  Would still be ridiculous. IF they did that I would expect they would say it was a combo of part time jobs and people dropping out.  The main hiring right now is part time jobs. 

Manufacturing shed 8,000 jobs.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm just going to say what other people in this thread are too afraid to: I will be devastated if these are the numbers.

[Oakvale]

It's almost as if Gallup is a bad polling firm.

[Yank2133]

Isn't Romney making his close arguments tomorrow as well?

[ProudModerate2]

I find it hilarious how Republicans say and quote the Gallup National Obama vs Romney Poll, in where Romney leads by about 5 to 6 points.
But then when Gallup produces this information, they call it garbage.
LOL.

PS: But all in all, this cant possibly be correct. Or can it ?

[Cliffy]

Again, Gallup doesn't agree with the methodology that the BLS uses and is advocating a change to a model they prefer.  They still use the BLS methodology because that's what's accepted by everyone.  So your point that it somehow taints their polls makes no sense if they don't even like that methodology.. good grief, quit reaching.

[Cliffy]

Per Fox…

An analyst from the department said New Jersey and Washington, D.C., did not turn in data due to the mammoth storm Sandy, which hit the Northeast earlier this week. The Labor Department estimated results for the state and for the nation’s capital.

[You kip if you want to...]

Per Fox…

An analyst from the department said New Jersey and Washington, D.C., did not turn in data due to the mammoth storm Sandy, which hit the Northeast earlier this week. The Labor Department estimated results for the state and for the nation’s capital.

Don't "" that. Idiot.

[DrScholl]

Gallup can be hit and miss on this particular number, sometimes they have it going in one direction and the official numbers go the other way. I think the rate will stay the same.

[5280]

Per Fox…

An analyst from the department said New Jersey and Washington, D.C., did not turn in data due to the mammoth storm Sandy, which hit the Northeast earlier this week. The Labor Department estimated results for the state and for the nation’s capital.

So this means, they're not including data from NJ, NY and DC?

[Lief 🗽]

Per Fox…

An analyst from the department said New Jersey and Washington, D.C., did not turn in data due to the mammoth storm Sandy, which hit the Northeast earlier this week. The Labor Department estimated results for the state and for the nation’s capital.

Yeah we had a little storm up here, it was a bit of a bother, I hope you'll be forgiving.

[Sasquatch]

If this is the case, the GOP response tomorrow is going to be something special.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Well, Mark Zandi and Moody's have revamped ADP's methodology to more line up with the BLS report, so we will probably see no change at all tomorrow, or a small jump.

[Cliffy]

ADP just revised out 365k jobs, they aren't exactly reliable.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I'm just going to say what other people in this thread are too afraid to: I will be devastated if these are the numbers.

The unspoken words of the opposition: We don't want the economy to get better because if it does we lose.

[old timey villain]

I wouldn't get too excited either way based on Gallup's numbers.