Will Low Ohio voter turnout hurt Obama?
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Author Topic: Will Low Ohio voter turnout hurt Obama?  (Read 2611 times)
milhouse24
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« on: November 02, 2012, 11:25:01 AM »
Early voter turnout for Obama is significantly less than in 2008.  Therefore, election day turnout will likely be less for Obama.

Early voter turnout is higher for Romney than McCain in 2008.  So, turnout for Romney will improve on election day from 2008. 

Do you think Obama will lose Ohio because of low voter turnout?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2012, 11:32:53 AM »
It could be just the opposite actually: more 2008 McCain voters are voting early and more 2008 Obama voters are waiting until election day.  Not worried.  McCain had no early voting operation to compete with Obama.  Romney does.  Of course early voting will tighten because of that.
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Ljube
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2012, 11:46:29 AM »
It is possible. I don't think it is likely, but who knows. Only Election Day results will tell for sure.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2012, 05:01:38 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2012, 11:32:53 AM
It could be just the opposite actually: more 2008 McCain voters are voting early and more 2008 Obama voters are waiting until election day.  Not worried.  McCain had no early voting operation to compete with Obama.  Romney does.  Of course early voting will tighten because of that.

This is an indicator of enthusiasm. 

There would be no reason for an enthusiastic Obama supporter to wait long lines on election day.  Frankly, voting is kinda annoying, and only the diehards come out to vote. 

Obama's voters are younger, more impatient, and less likely to know where the polling places are. 

I think Obama will lose Ohio, and the reason will be because he had lower turnout than Romney on election day.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2012, 05:23:37 PM »
In a word, No. Ground op there won't let THAT happen. Particularly across the northern part of the state, which is Obama country.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2012, 05:24:50 PM »
How are crowd sizes there lately?
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J. J.
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2012, 05:33:33 PM »
Quote from: DemPGH on November 02, 2012, 05:23:37 PM
In a word, No. Ground op there won't let THAT happen. Particularly across the northern part of the state, which is Obama country.

If PA is a sample, Obama ground game is way off this time. 
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2012, 05:42:10 PM »
If this is a rehash on 2004, then Ohio should trend republican. And crowd sizes, anyone?
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DemPGH
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2012, 05:44:29 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on November 02, 2012, 05:33:33 PM
Quote from: DemPGH on November 02, 2012, 05:23:37 PM
In a word, No. Ground op there won't let THAT happen. Particularly across the northern part of the state, which is Obama country.

If PA is a sample, Obama ground game is way off this time. 

It's not. The ground op in OH is significantly ramped up from what it is here in PA.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2012, 05:56:26 PM »
"ahem" those crowd sizes?
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DemPGH
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2012, 06:06:36 PM »
What about crowd sizes? I know John Kerry in 2004 drew 50,000 and even more than that and lost. In 2008 Obama drew ones that size and won. Challengers often draw large crowds, but a quick survey indicates that Mitt's have been fairly average by challenger standards.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2012, 06:55:53 PM »
But have Obama's crowds been average for an incumbent?
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CalgaryManifesto
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2012, 06:57:34 PM »
It looks like turnout is going to be a key factor in a couple of states. I've been going through the precinct level data in a couple of states, and turnout was abysmal in a bunch of suburbs in 2008.

If you want the turnout breakdowns from 2008, I mapped them out last night and posted them on my site.  justinbumstead (dot) ca
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2012, 07:55:25 PM »
But have Obama's crowds been average for an incumbent?
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Cliffy
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2012, 08:06:47 PM »
Obama's rally at that Gym today looked precious.  Romney's got 30k rocking tonight...
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2012, 08:08:52 PM »
THAT is what I like to hear!
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Cliffy
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2012, 08:10:07 PM »
360 degree view compliments of Mark Halperin

http://www.dermandar.com/p/aSciJH
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Seriously?
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2012, 08:14:13 PM »
Obama had 4.000 at a rally today.
Romney and Ryan drew between 25,000 and 30,000 tonight.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2012, 08:15:51 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2012, 08:22:06 PM by outofbox6 »
Wow that is great!!! And thanks for sending me that html, showing it off to friends!
Pennsylvania, Bucks county right?
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Cliffy
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2012, 08:35:18 PM »
Flip to Cspan and see Obama's rally, 2800 lol.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2012, 09:23:46 PM »
Haha!!!! Wow, what great Crowd turnout, haha!!!
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2012, 09:30:38 PM »
As for numbers, Ohio had received 1.2 million absentee ballots (which includes early voting) as of October 26th. In 2008 there were 5.7 million absentee votes, so the number wasn't anywhere near there by last week. I'm searching for more updated early turnout numbers.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2012, 11:23:24 PM »
Heck, Beck's rally had 4500 (sold out in 24 hrs) tonight in Columbus, Oh.  Beat out Obama, lol.
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badgate
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2012, 12:21:29 AM »
Y'all obviously didn't read the Washington Post story about how Ohioans are soooo over it.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2012, 02:16:49 AM »
The Romney momentum is huge in Ohio. Whether that translates to a win or not is unknown.
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