CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado

[philly09]

From PPP's Twitter

"Our new Colorado poll for @lcvoters finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-46. We'll have one last CO poll Monday"

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Colorado President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-11-01

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

PPP in 2008, Obama by 10. 
Actual: Obama by 9.

Encouraging to see the gold standard with Obama up 4. 

[Person Man]

I'm calling 50.0 - 48- 1.5

[Seriously?]

PPP in 2008, Obama by 10. 
Actual: Obama by 9.

Encouraging to see the gold standard with Obama up 4. 

Does Obama get to +4 with:
a) a 20-point lead with independents; or
b) a large crossover of Republicans; or
c) a huge Election Day turnout of Dems.

Because Obama is trailing in the Early Vote in CO.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado.

[Seriously?]

Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado.

The poll is D+4 (40/36/24) when the Early Vote is R+2 (35/37/28).
Romney has a +1 advantage in the R/D crossover (12 Ds voting R vs 11 Rs voting D).
And R self-identification is -1.4 (36 vs. 37.4) from the Early Vote totals compiled by the Colorado SoS.

I guess the only conclusion is that in addition to a lot of self-identifying Is as D in the poll, there will be a lot more Democrats than Republicans voting on Election Day. Otherwise this poll does not match the early vote data.

[ajb]

Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado.

The poll is D+4 (40/36/24) when the Early Vote is R+2 (35/37/28).
Romney has a +1 advantage in the R/D crossover (12 Ds voting R vs 11 Rs voting D).
And R self-identification is -1.4 (36 vs. 37.4) from the Early Vote totals compiled by the Colorado SoS.

I guess the only conclusion is that in addition to a lot of self-identifying Is as D in the poll, there will be a lot more Democrats than Republicans voting on Election Day. Otherwise this poll does not match the early vote data.

As you will recall from yesterday, the 2010 exit polls for CO were D+5.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado.

Gotta call you on this one, Lief.  Buck won CO independents, who were 39% of the voting population, by 16 pts in 2010.  Now that was after the Tea Party movement, and Buck was a Tea Party candidate.  Obama took independents by 10 pts in 2008, but they were also 39% of the voting population.

Interestingly enough, it was R+1 in 2008, but Dem +5 in 2010.  Now, that make absolutely NO SENSE... unless conservatives are increasingly identifying as Independent, which is probably true. 

Colorado is going to be a tricky one in 2012, but I have to think Obama wins by about 3 based on aggregate polling data. 

[Skill and Chance]

Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado.

The poll is D+4 (40/36/24) when the Early Vote is R+2 (35/37/28).
Romney has a +1 advantage in the R/D crossover (12 Ds voting R vs 11 Rs voting D).
And R self-identification is -1.4 (36 vs. 37.4) from the Early Vote totals compiled by the Colorado SoS.

I guess the only conclusion is that in addition to a lot of self-identifying Is as D in the poll, there will be a lot more Democrats than Republicans voting on Election Day. Otherwise this poll does not match the early vote data.

In 2010, the early vote was R+6.  The final, all-inclusive tally was D+6.  There is a precedent for what PPP is showing. 

[Person Man]

Its like R+3 right now...and it was even in 2008. It is quite concievable that the composition will be right between 2008 and 2010. Perhaps Obama will get to 51%...and he would have gotten about 48% in 2010. Its all very plausable.