Would you be shocked if this was the election night map? (part 2)

[5280]

Obama: 261
Romney: 277

Romney manages to win Wisconsin by 48.3%, Obama 47.9%, barely loses Ohio.

[Ljube]

Iowa seems gone, so yes.

[Franzl]

Not shocked about this one, but very surprised.

[Lincoln Republican]

Not extremely.

[Chaddyr23]

I'll have to blame Waukesha County!!!

[Kitteh]

Not shocked but definitely surprised. Also I'm pretty sure that Ohio would go Romney before Wisconsin.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Not shocked about this one, but very surprised.

[Blue3]

Not as bad as the other one, but O isn't going to lose Iowa or New Hampshire.

[morgieb]

Not shocked about this one, but very surprised.

[Stirring Wolf🥣🐺]

The only maps that will surprise me are anything more extreme than either of these two maps.

Based on:

[Vosem]

Iowa seems gone, so yes.

Why in the flying  are you so pessimistic about Iowa? At last count it seems to be tilting Romney. Unless I've missed something very significant, since school was back on today.

This map is possible, because it's very difficult to tell what's going on in WI vis-a-vis the early vote and nothing else is unreasonable. I highly, highly doubt Romney will win without OH though -- and same for Obama. OH will make or break Romney and Obama.

[heatmaster]

I get a sense, you Dems are finally getting sense and you Know Mitt is gonna win Ohio and into the bargain will take Wisconsin as well.

[NHI]

I think this map is a very strong possibility.

[ProudModerate2]

I get a sense, you Dems are finally getting sense and you Know Mitt is gonna win Ohio and into the bargain will take Wisconsin as well.

heatmaster,
You're reading the "Dems" incorrectly. It's not that they are finally "getting sense," but that most of the "Dems" on this site are willing to "look at the full picture," compromise, and judge things with reason and consider all possibilities.

I am a newbie to this site, but I will tell everyone here, that so far I see that there are way more Republicans with a bad attitude than there are Democrats. It seems that many Rep members here just cant take off their "Republican blinders," and consider that this World has more than just one (stubborn) view.

[5280]

I get a sense, you Dems are finally getting sense and you Know Mitt is gonna win Ohio and into the bargain will take Wisconsin as well.

heatmaster,
Your reading the "Dems" incorrectly. It's not that they are finally "getting sense," but that most of the "Dems" on this site are willing to "look at the full picture," compromise, and judge things with reason and consider all possibilities.

I am a newbie to this site, but I will tell everyone here, that so far I see that there are way more Republicans with a bad attitude than there are Democrats. It seems that many Rep members here just cant take off their "Republican blinders," and consider that this World has more than just one (stubborn) view.

You do realize this forum is dominated by Democrats right?  There's a reason Republicans here have "bad attitudes", they're entitled to that.

[DemPGH]

Yes again, because I don't see WI and IA flipping while OH does not. It runs through OH for Mitt.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I could see Herr Walker stealing Wisconsin if it's narrow enough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You do realize this forum is dominated by Democrats right?  There's a reason Republicans here have "bad attitudes", they're entitled to that.

Bollocks.

[renegadedemocrat]

It would shock me. Wisconsin is not favoring Mitt at all now.

[SPC]

I wouldn't give that map significantly more than 1000:1 odds. By contrast, I would give the least unlikely map (Obama winning all swing states except NC) roughly 11:1 odds. Romney's least unlikely victory map (Romney winning all swing states plus PA) is about 22:1.

[BlueSwan]

Gutted. Not terribly surprised. My faith in the polls is not particularly strong.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Considering Romney has not led in a single Wisconsin poll since August 19, and the last 3 polls show leads of 5, 8, and 9 for Obama... yes, I would be very, very surprised. 

[Joe Biden 2020]

Considering Romney has not led in a single Wisconsin poll since August 19, and the last 3 polls show leads of 5, 8, and 9 for Obama... yes, I would be very, very surprised. 

I've always had trouble coming to grips of Wisconsin being a swing state, anyway.  I know its extremely close and could still go red, but for some reason I still can't get Wisconsin and Swing State to match up.

[CountryRoads]

Flip NH,  and this was my map last week. It's my map this week too, BUT I'm delusional at this point. I've been making prediction maps since Mid August, and all of them except this week's matched up nicely with national polls or trends.