WaPo: GOP may add to 2010 house gains

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am not going to state every single point I have to make about the NC redistricting, every time it comes up. I have stated many times my disdain for it on the manner and such would be easy to find in the relevant thread topics on the proper board. My time is limited and I am not going to write a book on the subject just because some people can't avoid makign false assumptions and accusations.

I am sick of liberal posters making bs assumptions and putting every singe blue avatar on trial on this forum.

And looks are the worst way to judge a gerrymander. Some of the best made ones look completely innocent at first glance.

[politicallefty]

I'm sorry and I didn't mean to attack you. I wasn't accusing you of anything as my only response to you was about NC-12. My problem was with the other poster who seems to have a double-standard on redistricting in that it's fine when Republicans do it and wrong when Democrats do it. In my view, it shouldn't happen on either side. Just because I personally think NC is one of the worst doesn't mean that I approve of IL. It shouldn't happen in NC or IL (or anywhere else for that matter).

And I do basically agree with all of what you said, other than that I think a map should at least look somewhat reasonable, but I will admit that is subjective a la the obscenity test. I do know that some of the worst are clean-looking (such as Michigan), which is one of the reasons why I support neutral nonpartisan commissions with set standards across the entire country.

[krazen1211]

See my point above. At the least, I do believe NC-12 was justified in some way as VRA-protected in the 90's. That is no longer the case since it isn't even majority-minority. Even as a VRA district, I think it would go too far to warrant protection though.

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_3/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/RegPR_PDF/rptVTDRegPR-12.pdf

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_3/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/Vap_PDF/rptVTDVap-12.pdf


The new district is 37% white by VAP and 36% by registration.

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Congress_ZeroDeviation/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/RegPR_PDF/rptVTDRegPR-12.pdf

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Congress_ZeroDeviation/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/Vap_PDF/rptVTDVap-12.pdf


The old district was 46% white by VAP and 45% by registration.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Does the VRA even mandate a black district in western NC?

Just because you have distirct and it is majority/pluralityy black doesn't mean it is protected. That isn't how it works.

[Miles]

Does the VRA even mandate a black district in western NC?

Just because you have distirct and it is majority/pluralityy black doesn't mean it is protected. That isn't how it works.

No. Mecklenburg and Forsyth aren't even Section V counties.

The new 12th is also stops just shot of being an outright BVAP majority seat, 49.6% black VAP; a pretty transparent attempt by the GOP to pack as many blacks into the district while avoiding racial gerrymander issues.

[Frodo]

I wonder -are we entering a period in which the Republican Party holds almost uninterrupted control of the House for the next several decades, while the Senate and White House are more competitive, similar to the period between 1954 and 1994 when Democrats dominated that chamber?  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder -are we entering a period in which the Republican Party holds almost uninterrupted control of the House for the next several decades, while the Senate and White House are more competitive, similar to the period between 1954 and 1994 when Democrats dominated that chamber?

People were suggesting the same kind of thing before 2006 happened. The American electorate is volatile and gerrymanders can break surprisingly easily.

[Miles]

I also suspect that the Democrats will hold more governorships by 2010, so they'll have more seats at the table when the next House is drawn. 

[krazen1211]

Does the VRA even mandate a black district in western NC?

Just because you have distirct and it is majority/pluralityy black doesn't mean it is protected. That isn't how it works.

No. Mecklenburg and Forsyth aren't even Section V counties.

The new 12th is also stops just shot of being an outright BVAP majority seat, 49.6% black VAP; a pretty transparent attempt by the GOP to pack as many blacks into the district while avoiding racial gerrymander issues.

Actually its probably 50% black VAP now even if it wasn't at the census.

[politicallefty]

See my point above. At the least, I do believe NC-12 was justified in some way as VRA-protected in the 90's. That is no longer the case since it isn't even majority-minority. Even as a VRA district, I think it would go too far to warrant protection though.

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_3/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/RegPR_PDF/rptVTDRegPR-12.pdf

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_3/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/Vap_PDF/rptVTDVap-12.pdf


The new district is 37% white by VAP and 36% by registration.

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Congress_ZeroDeviation/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/RegPR_PDF/rptVTDRegPR-12.pdf

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Congress_ZeroDeviation/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/Vap_PDF/rptVTDVap-12.pdf


The old district was 46% white by VAP and 45% by registration.

As I said before, the old district should have been struck down just as this one should be. While I'm not entirely up on the case law with respect to coalition districts, I do know that they are not viewed in the same manner as majority-black (or majority-Hispanic, for that matter) districts. In fact, I'm fairly certain they are not protected at all, which should easily make NC-12 an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. It is an obvious attempt to pack as many blacks in one district as possible. It should not be allowed any more than the old Z-district in Louisiana. With that said, VRA case law is pretty messy right now, but this one seems blatantly obvious to me. Once again, I have to ask you to answer my other points, mostly in that I want to see your idea of a fair NC map (that is, unless you think the new map is fair). I would hope you would join me in the NC redistricting topic in the Political Geography board.

Does the VRA even mandate a black district in western NC?

Just because you have distirct and it is majority/pluralityy black doesn't mean it is protected. That isn't how it works.

I think you're entirely right. My problem with NC-12 is that it is clearly designed to pack as many blacks into one completely nonsensical district, just like the Louisiana Z-district, which you may or may not be familiar with. If the VRA doesn't mandate such a district, then it should be struck down (and in my view, should have been struck down in its initial incarnation). While I am not making accusations at you, but if we're going to go deep into the VRA, there is a very strong case to be made that second VRA seats should be created in AL, LA, and SC at the least. In fact, you could make them look pretty reasonable (and definitely no worse than NC-12).

[Frodo]

I wonder -are we entering a period in which the Republican Party holds almost uninterrupted control of the House for the next several decades, while the Senate and White House are more competitive, similar to the period between 1954 and 1994 when Democrats dominated that chamber?

People were suggesting the same kind of thing before 2006 happened. The American electorate is volatile and gerrymanders can break surprisingly easily.

The gerrymanders in Florida, Georgia, and Texas seem to be holding quite solidly ever since Republicans first took over the legislatures in those states -and it might prove the case in North Carolina as well. 

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder -are we entering a period in which the Republican Party holds almost uninterrupted control of the House for the next several decades, while the Senate and White House are more competitive, similar to the period between 1954 and 1994 when Democrats dominated that chamber?

People were suggesting the same kind of thing before 2006 happened. The American electorate is volatile and gerrymanders can break surprisingly easily.

The gerrymanders in Florida, Georgia, and Texas seem to be holding quite solidly ever since Republicans first took over the legislatures in those states -and it might prove the case in North Carolina as well. 

There is a cost to gerrymandering, though.  These maps will elect a GOP congress in any close year, but if Democrats have a 2008 generic ballot this decade where essentially everything <R+5 flips, they could easily cross 290.     

[Vote UKIP!]

All I know is that the Democrats invented gerrymandering.

Anyway, I agree that gerrymandering is wrong. Miles, I'm afraid it is case of shoe's-on-the-other-foot. The Dems have controlled your state for years, and is now reaping the consequences.

I think that an independent committee ought to draw congressional and legislative districts.